A Bettor World

Two turnovers by San Francisco’s punt returner set up the Giants for 10 points, including the game winning field goal to send the New York Giants to the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl should have two interesting story lines.  Most obvious, it provides Tom Brady a Super Bowl revenge rematch against Eli Manning and the Giants who upset the 18-0 Patriots four seasons ago.

The second interesting aspect is Eli Manning has a chance to move out of the shadow of his older brother in Peyton Manning’s home stadium.

Just like last time, the Super Bowl will be a rematch of a regular season game, only this time the Giants won in the regular season.

Hopefully the Super Bowl will be as exciting as the Giants 24-20 win over the Patriots earlier this season.  In that game, the lead changed three times in the last few minutes.  After the Giants took a 17-13 lead with 3:03 remaining, the Patriots answered with a touchdown to take a 20-17 lead with just 1:36 remaining.  Eli manning then took his team 80 yards in 8 plays to score the winning touchdown with just 15 seconds remaining.

In today’s Giants-49ers matchup, there were two very good entry points.

With the game tied and the Giants set to receive the second half kickoff, it was worthwhile backing the Giants with the ball with 1:36 remaining.  The Giants did well on the front end scoring a field goal just before the half, but they came up empty after the half, but managed to increase their value slightly.

The second came in the third quarter with the Giants taking over the ball at their own 7 leading by three points.  This provided a good chance to take the 49ers with long odds.  Anytime a team is taking over inside their own ten, the other team is more likely to score next.  With the 49ers defense playing well, it was a chance worth taking that paid off.  Even though the Giants managed two first downs, the 49ers had a nice punt return that set up a 3-play, 54-yard touchdown drive to give them a lead.

The end of the game provided a volatile environment with wild swings in value.  Such an environment can provide quick profits, or quick losses.  With the defenses playing so well, it would have paid off to back the defenses through the end of regulation.  However, such trades should be small as one play late in the game can bring a sudden los, as evident by the 49ers fumbled punt return in overtime.

In case you are wondering why there have not been any post here for the past two weeks, a long story short, I can not receive CBS on my satellite or over the air, and since the Sunday Ticket does not cary playoff games, I had to watch the CBS games over the internet (which I do all season long so I can watch multiple games at once.)  Somehow I managed to get a virus two Sundays ago at one of the internet tv sites and did not get my main computer back until this past Tuesday.    While I certainly could have posted  on my other two computers, it felt like a nice excuse to take a couple Sundays off.

Both the Houston Texans (-2.5) and the New Orleans Saints (-10.5)both overcame early touchdown deficits to come back and cover, although they do so in very different fashion.

The Texans overcame Bengal leads of 7-0 and 10-7 to tie the game twice in the first half.  These deficits provided either an opportunity for early Bengals backers to take a small profit or enable an entry on the Texans from the long side.

Then with less than a minute to play in the first half, Texan defensive lineman JJ Watt snatched an Andy Dalton pass at the line of scrimmage and returned it for a touchdown that gave them a 17-01 lead.

In the second half, the Texans held the Bengals offense in check while the offense provided two additional touchdowns to put the game away.

In the evening game, the Lions (+10.5) jumped out to a touchdown lead on the game’s first possession.  This provided a great opportunity to enter the Saints with long odds even though they were 17.5 points behind the spread.

This trade started out well as the Saints marched down the field only to fumble the ball away.

Fortunately , the Saints defense stepped up and forced a punt to allow the Saints offense to tie the game.  At this point, one could have put some green on the screen or hope the Saints could go into the half tied and then take the lead in to start the third.

The Lions the took another seven point lead.  The Saints responded with another good drive only to have the Lions force a Dew Brees fumble.

Again the Saints defense steeped up to allow their offense to tie the game before the half.  it looked as if the Saints had tied the game only to the play correctly reversed by replay causing the Saints to settle for three points.

This put Saints backers in a tough spot.  Although they were starting the second half with the ball, they were still 14.5 points behind the spread.

The way the Saints were moving the ball, it would be best to see if hey let could take the lead.  With many teams, one would just want to keep their losses small, but with the Saints and Packers, it is a different story.

The Saint responded by scoring a touchdown on a their first five drives.  Given the Lions ability also move the ball, it was best to green up once the Saints took a ten point lead.

After the Lions cut the lead to three points, it provided an opportunity to take a small stake on the Saints at long odds.  The Saints once again took a ten point lead which again provided another chance to green up.

The Saints then intercepted a pass to allow the offense to finally cross the spread with a 17 point lead.  If one still had not greened up on the Saints, they may have had some worry as the Lions cut the lead again to cut the lead to ten.  At this point, most teams would have tried to just run clock and not cover, but not the Saints.  The Saints surprised the Lions by throwing deep to set up another spread covering touchdown.

The Lions still had plenty of time to cover, so one should at the very least removed their risk if they were still sitting with large red positions if the Lions covered.  Fortunately for those stacking green numbers on the Saints, New Orleans intercepted another pass to provide a chance to run out the clock, which Drew Brees did, kneeling out the clock rather than running up the score.

Fox’s addition of Mike Pereira as a special rules analyst for the past two seasons has been one of the greatest telecast innovations in recent years.

Mr. Pereira is highly knowledgable of both college and pro football rules.  He is also entertaining despite his straight forward analysis and has an ability to educate fans of the rules without being condescending.

I don’t recall him being incorrect three times in the past two seasons, thus it was both surprising and a bit amusing to see Mr. Pereira make three incorrect statements during one analysis!

With 30 seconds remaining in the first half of the Arkansas-Kansas State game, a Wildcat run by Collin Klein that was initially judged a first down went under review as it appeared to be short of the line to gain for a first down.  During the analysis, Mr. Pereira stated the ball should be spotted at the 3.5 yard line (it was spotted at the 3), he said it would be fourth down (it would be third down) and that Kansas State would have to hurry because the clock would start on the ref’s signal (Arkansas had called timeout.)

We should forgive Mr. Pereira because it was an unusual event and he adds color to the broadcasts.

The same can not be said for ESPN’s attempt to imitate Fox’s rules analyst, though.  ESPN’s rules analyst is knowledgeable, but he does not share much of his rules knowledge with viewers, adds very little to the analysis that fans do not already know, is incredibly monotone, and often is unable to beat the field refs in making the call!  ESPN, which usually outdoes everyone else (except for NBC’s Sunday Night Football) has certainly flopped with their rules analyst.  They should continue to do the analysis, but should bring in someone with more charisma, although it will be difficult to top Mike Pereira.

As for the game, it was nice to see two teams make tackles and play pretty solid defense.

Arkansas (-9.5) took a unuasual 10-0 lead in the second quarter without making a single first down as they made a field goal off of a fumble recovery on a sack and took a punt return to the house.

The Razorbacks then extended their lead to 19-0 before Kansas State returned a blocked extra point for two points.

At this point there were undoubtedly persons looking to back Arkansas as a likely cover despite the short odds of nearly 5 to 1. This was ill-advised, not only because Kansas State has shown an ability to fight back all season, but because they had an opportunity to bookend the halves.

Despite struggling to move the ball the entire first half, Kansas State did indeed manage to bookend the half with two touchdowns to cut the lead to 3 points.

After exchanging punts following Arkansas’ change of mind in attempting to convert a fourth down, Arkansas moved back over the spread with a touchdown.

Kansas State then made Arkansas backers who failed to reduce any risk to sweat out the final quarter as they twice entered Arkansas territory with a chance to cover.

Unfortunately for Wildcat backers, the Cats missed a 42 yard field goal attempt which would have put them back within the numbers on their first march.  The Wildcats then made another promising drive, following a Razorback field goal, but Arkansas put the game away with back to back sacks and an interception.

This game was yet another example of the dangers of backing teams at very short odds, especially early in the game.  It also demonstrated the quick profits that can be made by taking the long side of the odds when a single play can put the spread back into contention, especially when there is plenty of time remaining.  Remember, in trading you don’t need to win the final outcome to come out green.

For all of the talk about the Big East not deserving an automatic BCS bid, if Clemson is the best the ACC has to offer, then maybe the ire directed at the Big East should be focused on the ACC.  (The Big East and non-BCS conferences have actually played better in these big games than the ACC.)

For a bowl season that has seen several poor defensive efforts, Clemson topped them all with one of the most pathetic defensive efforts in a bowl game EVER.  (Ever, as in the entire history of college bowl games.)

Clemson’s performance would not be excusable if they were playing on short rest in October, let alone to be playing in a BCS Bowl with A MONTH TO PREPARE.  It is simply an embarrassment to Clemson’s coaching staff to have their team this ill-prepared to play.  It is even more embarrassing to see a conference champion quit in the second quarter of a bowl game.

If anyone questions that Clemson quit, watch the number of defenders running at 3/4 speed when Geno Smith ran the ball in for a touchdown from seven yards out when the score was just 28-20.  That was a clear signal to back West Virginia even if one had to give more than 3 to 1, especially with the Mountaineers set to receive the second half kickoff.

To be fair, maybe the defenders were exhausted, but if that was the case, Clemson would have been better off to have their second string defenders in the game than to have their starters trotting around the field.

While West Virginia deserves credit for coming well prepared and motivated to play, Clemson’s defensive effort certainly aided them.  It appears like the more money some of these college coaches make, the worse the defenses play.

College football is not like the NFL where receivers can run clean after five yards.  Defenses can molest receivers all over the field.  It is simply inexcusable for so many receivers to be running so wide open when defenders can knock them off their routes and destroy their timing.  Heck, even if you get beat in college football you can tackle the receiver 40 yards down field before the ball arrives and only be penalized fifteen yards!

The Clemson coaching staff should donate every penny they made in the past month “preparing” for this game to the World Wildlife Federation’s ‘Adopt a Tiger’ program at: http://www.worldwildlife.org/gift-center/gifts/Species-Adoptions/Tiger.aspx?gid=33   It is the least they can do for insulting the prowess of the last few thousand remaining tigers in the wild.

I hope this game puts to rest why Alabama and LSU are playing a rematch for the national title game, they can play defense.  There are 105 teams that have given up more points per game than LSU and Alabama yield per game, COMBINED!

There are probably over 100 overpaid defensive coordinators that should be skipping their summer vacations and spending time earning their pay by watching film of LSU, Alabama and NFL teams to learn how to play defense.  Alabama and LSU may have slightly faster players on their defenses, but they are not that much faster.  It is just as much defensive coaching, desire and effort (and harassing receivers to not allow them to run clear) as it is athleticism.

Heck, if you can’t stop a team, drop 8 into coverage, beat up the wideouts, and make them work the ball up the field. You may yield yards, but you won’t be giving up 70 points!!!  Watch how the pros play cover 2 on third and long.  With bump and run defense, you should be able to keep everything in front of you and come up and make a tackle.  (It is amazing how many teams have converted on third and long this bowl season!)

While I love college football, I am not the only one concerned about so many of the games turning into arena ball.  While few people enjoy 3-0 games, people love the NFL because not only are points earned, first downs are earned.  It makes the game exciting.  Arena ball becomes monotonous after a while when teams can slip one tackler then run free for touchdown after touchdown.

This is also why Oklahoma State fans need to give it a rest that they should be playing in New Orleans next Monday.  The Cowboys would be lucky to be 17 point dogs.  If Stanford could walk up and down the field and put up 38 points on you, so could Alabama and LSU, only you would not be putting up a 3-handle on offense against those defenses.   Teams that lose to Iowa State don’t deserve to be in the conversation anyhow.

I will say, a bad blowout is still better than no football at all, which is what we unfortunately have tomorrow.  At least the next game between Arkansas and Kansas State will likely be a good, defensive fought, 45 to 35 game. (not exactly the 1966 Michigan State-Notre Dame game, but at least its football.)

The New York Giants (-3.5) dominated the Dallas Cowboys in what was essentially a playoff game to represent the NFC East in the playoffs against Atlanta next weekend.

The Giants limited the Cowboys to a total of ten yards on their first four drives and forced the Cowboys to punt on all five of the first half possessions.

The Giants offense converted several third down conversions on their way to taking a 21-0 lead.

The Cowboys came out of the halftime locker room with a 94 yard touchdown drive to make a game of it.   They eventually cut the game to seven points early in the fourth quarter, only to have the Giants convert a third down conversion on a desperation heave down the field to break the Cowboys’ momentum.

Trading wise, early Giants backers had an easy ride for most of the game.  However, when the Cowboys cut the Giants lead to seven points, it was advisable to reduce some of their risk while odds remained relatively long.

Backers of the Cowboys were best to cut their losses early when it was evident that their intensity and execution was not on par with the Giants.  It also would not have been a bad idea to back the Cowboys with a small stake at long odds around four to one after they marched down the field to open the second half.  One could have turned a small profit off the trade after they cut it to seven points in the fourth.

Two power outages foreshadowed the San Francisco 49ers defensive effort tonight, as they played lights out holding Pittsburgh to just three points.

When a defense is playing like the 49ers did tonight, it is very easy to just stay with them without having to green up unless the opposition breaks through and threatens to take the lead.

The Steelers opened the game with a good drive that ended in an interception.  After that, the 49ers continued to pin Pittsburgh deep in their own territory.  The Steelers then never entered the red zone to force 49er backers to leave their position.

If the Steelers had entered the red zone or scored on a big play, ‘Niner backers should have just taken a small loss.  But with their defensive effort, the risk of a small loss was worth the larger reward of riding out the win.

The Atlanta Falcons (-13.5) provided another easy double-backing cover as they took the opening drive for a touchdown and never looked back.

As discussed several times in the past two months, one can often put a double stake on a large favorite that one expects to take an early lead.  From there, one can ride them with a trailing stop.

If the large favorite can not extend their lead, one can green up if the trailing stop is hit.  If the favorite continues to pull away, like the Falcons did tonight, you just ride them to a nice double stake victory.

The Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) provided yet another large ATS win for a large favorite in a featured game.

Although the Seahawks were able to put their backers into a green position with an early blocked punt for a touchdown, they were not able to put the Rams away against the spread until late in the fourth quarter.

A disciplined Seahawks backer should have greened up after their trailing stop was broken on a Rams drive dropped the Seahawks value from 73 to 60 before the drive ended with a field goal.

Even though the Seahawks were able to pull out the ATS win in the fourth quarter, it is usually best to green up when a large favorite can not put the dog away early.  It is best to preserve precious capital with a modest win rather than risk a back door cover that sets your bankroll backward.

The Chicago Bears earlier today provided a reminder that games that should be over, sometimes are not over. (In case you missed it, the Bears simply had to run three plays to bleed most of the clock, only to have God push Marion Barber out of bounds to provide the Broncos 40 more seconds to come back and win.)

Despite this lesson, there was once again people taking very short odds on the Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) when they took a 34-22 lead over the New York Giants with 5:52 remaining.

The Cowboys had a binary value of 94 (1.06) which meant one had to lay $150 for a $10 reward.  While some people regard these “dead cert winners” as easy money, it only takes one game like tonight to make 14 easy winners turn into a net loss.

After the Giants scored 15 points to take a 3 point lead with 51 seconds remaining, their value shot up 95 (1.05) requiring a 19 to 1 lay to win.  Despite a huge 15 point comeback just moments earlier, some players did not believe the Cowboys could manage a field goal.

Anyone taking the Giants with short odds had to sweat this one out as the Cowboys lined up for a repeat situation of last week.  (The Cowboys made a field goal only to have a timeout called before the snap.  The Cowboys then missed the field goal to lose the game.)

It should be clear, do not take short odds above -400 thinking you are certain to make a profit, much less -1500 or -1900.  Rather, it is worthwhile to place small stakes on long odds when you can envision a realistic scenario for a successful trade.

The New Orleans Saints offense was in high gear tonight as they rolled up 49 points on the New York Giants.

It was obvious from the very start that the Giants would not be able to stop Drew Brees and the Saints offense tonight. After opening the game with an impressive 11-play drive that ended with a failed fake field goal, the Saints easily moved down the field on their next possession for a 10-play touchdown drive.

The Giants tried to make a game of it, reducing the lead to 7-3 on their next possession and then stopping the Saints.

The Saints then put their offense in high gear scoring touchdowns on their next four drives (excluding their possession with with just 35 seconds remaining in the first quarter) to blow the game open.

When a high-octane team like the Saints, Packers or Patriots comes out walking up and down the field, there is only one thing to do.  Back them and stay with them until the other team proves they can stop them.