A Bettor World

Why do kickers eat their breakfast cereal on a plate? Because they tend to choke in bowls.

Virginia Tech followed in Stanford and Georgia’s missteps tonight by missing a very makeable field goal to lose the game.

Michigan followed Stanford’s luck by having instant replay overturn touchdowns which could (and in Stanford’s case, would) have cost them both the game and the spread.

In case you missed last night’s game, Stanford +4 outplayed Oklahoma State on the stat sheet but missed a game winning field goal at the end of regulation and then missed another in the first possession of overtime.  Oklahoma State then threw what looked like the spread covering touchdown win only to have instant replay  show the receiver was stopped inches short of the goal line.  Oklahoma State then made the wise move of setting up an easy game winning field goal, but provided Stanford one of the most fortunate covers of the year.  (Stanford actually had a more incredible cover earlier in the year against USC winning by 8 points as 7.5 point favorites in triple overtime when USC fumbled the ball into the end zone.  USC, by the way, had the point spread play of the year when the PAC 12 awarded the Trojans a touchdown hours after the game that was initially called back due to excessive celebration which caused some Vegas casinos to pay out on both USC and Utah.)

Back to tonight’s game, the Sugar Bowl was a classic example that the team which outplays the other does not always win.

Virginia Tech out-gained Michigan 377-184 and out-first-downed the Wolverines 22 to 12.

However, Virginia Tech gift wrapped the victory to Michigan.  The Hokies missed a golden opportunity for a touchdown early when they had a first and goal at the four yard line.  The Hokies then ran the ball backward 22 yards to make them settle for three points.  The Hokies, later on, roughed the punter which kept Michigan’s first touchdown drive alive, which occurred when the defensive back missed an interception, leaving noone to tackle the receiver.  The Hokies then fumbled the ensuing kickoff to allow Michigan to go into halftime up 10-6 in a game which Virginia Tech greatly outplayed the  Wolverines.

In the second half ,Virginia Tech threw the ball into the hands of a Michigan defensive end who made a great interception to set up another touchdown drive that was helped by a pass interference call which overturned a Hokie interception.

This provided a great entry point on Virginia Tech at better than two to one odds.  Even though the were down eleven points, they were clearly the better team tonight.

The Hokies then stepped it up another notch and clearly outplayed Michigan to score the next 11 points. Then with all the momentum, Virginia Tech failed on a fake punt near midfield to setup a Michigan field goal when the could have pinned Michigan deep inside their own territory.

Virginia Tech then put together a nice drive to send the game to overtime with a field goal.  Given college football’s overtime rules which somewhat diminish the advantage of the dominant team (just ask Oklahoma State), it was best to green up on both Virginia Tech and Michigan trades that were entered with long odds as overtime can be incredibly volatile and unpredictable.  It is just best to take a small profit rather than be beaten by a fumbled snap, tipped pass, holding call, missed field goal, or some other wacky play.  While these things can happen at any time in a game, even a small error in overtime like a false start can cost the team a game, whereas the same error is a small blip at other points in the game.

That does not imply that one should never trade overtime.  For example, taking a good offensive team that falls behind in overtime with long odds can be quite profitable since they are allowed four downs to move the ball to equalize the score and allow traders to green up.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
Vanderbilt -1.5
Houston -20

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Wisconsin -14
Wake Forest -10
Georgia -30.5
Tulsa -13.5
Stanford -17
Kansas State +8
Arkansas -13
Troy -11

Vanderbilt -1.5:

Vanderbilt has covered in five straight games in a stretch that has included Georgia, Arkansas and Florida.  The only two teams Vanderbilt has not covered against this season are Alabama (5 points ats) and South Carolina (2.5 points ats).

Since losing two straight games ATS, Vanderbilt has corrected their offensive problems scoring nearly 32 points a game in their past five games.

Tennessee has lost five of their last six games straight up and against the spread with their only win coming against Middle Tennessee State.  In their last four SEC games they have not scored more than 7 points and in their previous games against Georgia they only managed 12 points.

While Tennessee’s offensive slump has come against some of the best teams in the SEC, and the nation for that matter, Vanderbilt’s defense is not exactly a pushover.

Vanderbilt needs this game to become bowl eligible and would love nothing more than to become eligible for the post-season by defeating their big brother.

Houston -20:

Houston is not only undefeated, they have covered five straight games and five of the last six.

While most of the attention on Houston has justifiably been on their offense which has sandwiched 73 point games with a ‘meager’ 56 point effort, their defense has also played well recently holding their last two opponents to 13 and 17 points.

SMU has been moving in the opposite direction as they have failed to cover their last four games.  Two of those losses were by 24 and 31 points to Southern Miss and Tulsa.

While SMU has played descent defense, their offense has sputtered at times.  Excluding their contest against Tulane, SMU has only scored a combined total of 27 points in their other three games in the past four weeks.

Houston has won by more than 20 points seven times this year, including their past five.  Expect the streak to continue this week.

Wisconsin -14:

Wisconsin has won their last two games by a combined score of 104 to 30 while Illinois coming off of a 17 point loss to a Michigan.

The Badgers have covered in 7 of their last nine games while Illinois has not covered in 3 of their last four games, with their only cover coming against Penn State’s pedestrian offense.

Illinois has only scored 7, 14, 7, and 14 points in their last four games.  They do have a good defense but against good offenses like Northwestern and Michigan they allowed a total of 66 points.

Wisconsin’s worst offensive outputs were 29 and 31 points against good Ohio State and Michigan State defenses.

Wisconsin should manage 31 points while Illinois does not look like they can manage more than 14 points at this point in the season.

A win will keep the Badgers on track for the Rose Bowl, so they should be highly motivated to play well and put this game away.

Wake Forest -10:

Wake Forest has lost three in a row and four out of five games against a difficult schedule, although they have won their last two ATS.  They need a win here to become bowl eligible as they have a difficult matchup against Vanderbilt on deck.

Wake Forest has not defeated an FBS school by double figures but Maryland has lost five straight games by double digits (losing all ATS), including a home loss to Boston College.  Maryland has not defeated an FBS team since their opening win against a shorthanded Miami team.

Maryland’s defense is struggling as even Boston College put up 28 points and Virginia scored 31 against the Terrapins.  Wake Forest should manage as least as many points against Maryland as BC and UV.

Maryland demonstrated they could put up some points against Clemson, but in their last four games they are only averaging 16.5 points.

With Wake Forest needing a win and Maryland in disarray, take the Demon Deacons.

Georgia -30.5:

Georgia is coming off of a 45-7 win over Auburn and has won their last two games 108-23 while Kentucky is coming off of a 38-8 loss to Vanderbilt.

Georgia has won eight in a row and has covered in seven of those.  Their only ATS loss during this stretch was against Vanderbilt and even then they were over the spread twice in the fourth quarter.

Kentucky has lost 6 of their last 7 FBS games with their only win coming against a reeling Mississippi squad.

Covering 30.5 points is usually a dangerous venture, but against top competition Kentucky has lost 48-10 to Florida, 35 to 7 to LSU; and 54-3 to South Carolina. Georgia has won their last two games by 47 and 38 points .

Every week  you will see a big score next to a small score and wish you had pulled the trigger.  Don’t let Georgia’s impending blowout pass you by.

Tulsa -13.5:

Since starting the season 1-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State, Tulsa has won six in a row, covering their last four.

Excluding the three top ten teams they faced, Tulsa has defeated everyone they played by at least 17 points except for UCF, whose tough defense held them to 24 points in a short week.

Tulsa has averaged 39.5 points during their six game win streak while holding their opponents  to 17 points per game, including their 59-17 demolition of Marshall last week.

UTEP has also performed well against the spread, winning six in a row at one point before not covering in two of their last three games.

UTEP has been able to score points, topping 30 points in four of their last six games.  However, their defense has yielded 30+points to the top offenses they have played.

UTEP could manage 24 points against Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricanes could easily put of 38 or more points, providing the cover.

This may be a bad situation for Tulsa as this game has little meaning and UTEP needs one more victory for bowl eligibility and they have a tough match against UCF on deck.  However, with Tulsa’s ability to rack up points on the UTEP defense, they should still cover.

Stanford -19:

Stanford’s long ATS winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Ducks last week, but they now face a Cal Bears team that has struggled to tally large scoring totals against good defenses.

Cal has covered two straight games in which they won by a combined score of 53-13, but those were against Oregon State and Washington State teams Stanford destroyed by a combined 80-27.

Stanford could be ripe for a letdown, but they have covered against every unranked opponent this season, winning each game by more than three touchdowns.

Cal, on the other hand, has played poorly against top competition, losing to Oregon 43-15 and USC 30-9.

Cal needs this game to become bowl eligible, but with Arizona State on deck they may be home for the holidays as Stanford should return to winning game by more than three touchdowns as they attempt to pump life back into Luck’s Heisman campaign.

Kansas State +9.5:

Kansas State has played a brutal schedule, yet is 8-1 ATS, with their only loss coming against Oklahoma where they gave the Sooners everything they had for the first 30 minutes of the game.  They also put a scare into Oklahoma State, losing by just seven points.

During their amazing run, Kansas State has FIVE upset wins, including an amazing four in a row.

Between their tough schedule and playing a four-overtime game last week in their upset win over Texas A&M, the Wildcats could run out of gas as they have to go on the road to Texas.  However, how many times could that have been said about them this season?

Texas is coming off a baffling offensive performance in a 17 to 5 loss to Missouri after scoring 95 points in the previous two weeks against Kansas and Texas Tech.

Kansas State has allowed over 50 points in their last three games, albeit, one was in four overtimes and all three were against powerful offenses.

Texas has a strong defense as they have only allowed a total of 37 points in their last three games.  Excluding their two games against the two top ten teams from the Sooner state, Texas has not allowed more than 20 points in any game.

The Wildcats, though, have managed 41 or more points in four of their last five games and should manage a few touchdowns.

Texas has a big game against their hated Texas AM rivals coming up on a short week.  That game has added meaning with the Aggies skipping the conference after this season.  The potential for the Longhorns to look ahead may open the door for the Wildcats to keep this game close and provide a possible upset.

Arkansas -12.5:

Arkansas is rolling as they have won their last two games by a combined score of 93 to 35.

Mississippi State has covered their last three games, although two of those ATS wins were by one point in straight-up losses.

Arkansas has scored at least 38 points seven times this season, but will struggle to do so this week against a tough Mississippi State defense. Prior to giving up 24 points to Alabama last week, the Bulldogs held their previous four opponents to 12.5 points per game.

Although Arkansas likely won’t approach their season scoring
average this week, they will not need to so to cover.  Against upper-echelon SEC squads, the
Bulldogs have only produced 6, 10, 12, and 7 points.

Even though Arkansas has a big game on deck versus LSU, the Razorbacks know they will not have a chance at sharing the SEC West title if they do not take care of businesses this week.

While Mississippi State needs a win to become bowl eligible, they have their reeling in-state rival on deck which makes them more likely to look ahead than Arkansas as a loss would be more devastating to the Razorbacks.

Troy -10.5:

Troy has only covered twice this season and has lost six of their last seven ATS as their reputation has surpassed their talent.

This is Troy’s last home game, so they should provide a good effort against a Florida Atlantic squad that has not won this season and only covered twice while losing their last five against the spread.

Although Troy has struggled, it has been even worse for FAU as they have lost all but one of their games by at least fourteen points.

Troy’s 33 points last week was the first time they scored over 20 points since October 1. Their defense has performed even worse as they have allowed more than 30 points in all but two games.

FAU does not have the ability to exploit Troy’s poor defense, though, as they have only scored 0, 1,2, and 3 touchdowns in their last four games.  They have only scored more than 20 points twice while scoring 14 or less six times.

FAU looks like they have given up on the season as they are coming off of a 41-7 loss to a Florida International squad that Troy took to overtime three weeks ago.

As poor as Troy has been, FAU has been worse. Playing their last home game provides Troy the only real incentive for either team in this game which should be enough to cover against a team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on this season.

After punting on their first two possesions, the Oregon Ducks kicked their offense into high gear, punting just one more time the rest of the way in their 53-30 win over Staford.

The game chart on Oregon was a series of higher highs and higher lows as the longer the game went on, the more dominating the Ducks became.

When one is backing a team with this patern, one should ride them until the trend is broken.  Likewise, if you are laying such a team, one should limit their losses before there is little value left in yout position.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
So Miss -9
Wisconsin -27
Alabama -18

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Arkansas -14.5
Ohio State -7.5
Illinois pick ‘em
Wyoming +16.5
Stanford -3 (buy ‘ if needed)
UAB -5
Notre Dame -20.5
Colorado +10

So Miss -9: 
UCF is a poor road team that has been over-valued in Vegas all season while So Miss is a good home team that has been under-rated in the betting world.

So Miss is on a roll having won and covered seven straight games (six against FBS) while UCF has not covered in six of their last seven games, with their only ATS win coming against lowly Memphis.

Central Florida is 0-4 on the road including losses to UAB and Florida International.  So Miss is 4-0 at home including a 27-3 win over SMU in their last home game.

So Miss should be highly focused here as their final two games are against CUSA bottom-dwellers UAB and Memphis.  So Miss has excellent balance with both a strong running and passing game that has been piling up points along with their opportunistic defense and special teams.

UCF has no impressive wins, no road wins, and no chance at a bowl games if they lose here.  Keep soaring with the So Miss Eagles.

Wisconsin -27:
Minnesota has provided promise for the future in the past two weeks upsetting  Iowa and scaring Michigan State.  However, in their last game against a power rushing team, the Gophers were grounded by the Huskers in a 41-14 game where Nebraska let off the gas.

Wisconsin likely won’t be as kind as Nebraska as the Badgers have a reputation of running up the score, as demonstrated in the 62-17 win last week over Purdue.

Wisconsin should be able to run at will as they are averaging 5.7 ypc while Minnesota is yielding 5.1 ypc.  Thanks to their strong run game, Wisconsin statistically throws the ball even better than they run as they are averaging an incredible 10.6 yards per attempt.

Wisconsin has scored 48 or more points six times this year and should top this total once again.

Alabama -18:
Alabama knows that to have any chance of playing in the national title game they must not just win the rest of their games, they must completely dominate their opponents.  Add to that their struggles with field goal attempts last week, expect the Tide to ram the ball into the end zone.

Miss St was only able to score 6 against LSU earlier in the year and will likely not top that total this week as they have only scored a total of 10 points in their last three games against the Tide.

Alabama is only allowing 2 yards per carry and just 4.5 yards per passing attempt.  The Tide have only allowed a total of 22 points in their last four games and just 64 points in their nine games.

Mississippi State also has a good defense, allowing less than nineteen points per game, but Alabama has scored nearly 36 points per game behind a strong run game that wears out opponents.  In the six games prior to LSU, Alabama had scored between 34 and 52 points in each game.

Alabama should be able to wear out the strong Bulldog defense and cover the spread.

Arkansas -14.5:
Arkansas is quietly having an excellent season as their only loss has come against Alabama.  The Razorback offense is rolling, scoring between 29 and 44 points in each of their last five games.  For the season they are averaging over 450 yards per game thanks to their impressive 8.3 yards per passing attempt.  They are also the only team to score two touchdowns on the Tide defense.

Conversely, Tennessee’s offense has been struggling mightily.  In Tennessee’s last four SEC games, they have only scored 12, 7, 6, and 3 points.  In their last three games, Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 250 yards per game, with only 82 yards on the ground.

While Arkansas has a high octane offense, they have had some problems stopping the run at times.  However, with Tennessee running for just 2.6 yards per carry, the Volunteers won’t be able to exploit this which should allow the Razorbacks offense to spend plenty of time on the field.

While Arkansas was a better play earlier in the week, Arkansas should win by three or more touchdowns which provides good value even with this larger point spread.

Ohio State -7.5:
Ohio State is greatly improved since their loss to Michigan State as they have won their last three which includes wins over Illinois and Wisconsin.  Their last loss was against Nebraska where they blew a three touchdown lead after losing their quarterback.

Purdue has lost their last two games by a combined score of 98-31.   While the Boilermakers should perform better defensively this week, they will struggle against Ohio State’s tough defense, which should shut down their offense.

Ohio State has a poor passing game, but rb Herron is providing the Buckeyes offense a spark without having to pass the ball.  Purdue’s run defense has been poor as of late which should allow Ohio State to control the ball and win the field position battle.

Purdue has given up an average of over 37 points and 500 yards in their last three including 275 yards on the ground, the same number Ohio State has produced rushing the ball in their past three games.

Ohio State is not the same team they were in September which provides them value here against a Boilermaker defense that is struggling as of late.

Illinois pick ‘em:
Both teams started off strong but have struggled recently.  Michigan started 7-0 but they have lost 2 of their last three.  Illinois jumped out to a 6-0 start, including three narrow 3-point wins, but they have now  dropped their last three games.

Last year these two teams combined for 132 points in Illinois’ win in three overtime periods.  This year could be 180 degree difference

Illinois’ offense is regressing,  but their defense is playing very well and should be able to shut down Wolverine running game.

Michigan struggles when they cannot run and Illinois is only allowing 103 rushing yards per game and only 2.7 ypc.  To make matters worse, Michigan has only rushed for 139 ypg and 3.2 ypc in their last three games.

Coming off a bye week, Illinois should be prepared to make Michigan one-dimensional and pull out a victory at home.

Wyoming +16.5:
Wyoming is playing respectable ball as they covered against TCU last week and upset San Diego State on the road a week prior, a team Air Force lost to by 14 points at home.

Air Force has bounced back from a three-game losing streak with a 42-0 win over New Mexico and a ten-point, come from behind win over Army last week.

Air Force should have their way on offense as they average 5.6 ypc and over 300 yards per game while Wyoming is allowing 5.2 ypc and 230 yards per game.

Although Air Force is capable of scoring five or more touchdowns in this game, Wyoming is averaging over 30 points per game in their last three and should be able to score enough to keep within the spread.  Wyoming’s  offense averaging over 400 yards per games while AF defenses is allowing over 400 yards per game including 7.3 yards per passing attempt which is Wyoming’s offensive strength.

The only FBS school Air Force has beaten by more than ten points is New Mexico.  Wyoming has a good chance of keeping this stat intact which will be more than sufficient to cover the 16.5 point spread.

Stanford -3 (buy the ‘ if needed):
Stanford has won an incredible 12 straight games against the spread and has only lost one time in the last two seasons.  This week Stanford faces the last team to beat them, the Oregon Ducks.

In last year’s matchup with Oregon, Stanford jumped out to a 21-3 lead.  However, the Ducks dominated from that point to win going away 52-31.

Oregon was clearly the faster and more explosive team last year, the natural surface should help minimize the Ducks speed and help Stanford exploit their power advantage.

Stanford has won and covered every game this season beating every team except USC by three or more touchdowns.  The Cardinal can both run and throw at a high level, as can the Ducks.  ‘

Stanford does have a better defense as they are only allowing 3 ypc and 324 yards per game while Oregon is allowing 384 yards per game.

While both teams are more than capable of prevailing, Stanford has many advantages including the home field advantage, playing surface, quarterback and defense.  Keep riding Stanford until they lose.

UAB -5:
This is certainly a hold-your-nose pick as both teams have very poor defenses yielding over 500 yards a game against FBS competition,

UAB is better suited to exploit a poor defense as they have averaged 360 yards of offense per game in their last three while Memphis has only garnered 218 yards per game.

Memphis is especially poor running the ball as they have only moved the ball 2.5 ypc.  Their one-dimensional attack should thus allow UAB to also have an advantage on defense,

Prior to being demolished by Marshall and Houston, UAB had covered five straight games while Memphis has only been able to cover against Tulane and MTSU.  Although Memphis has had a week off and have the home field, UAB has shown a greater ability to move the ball and should pull out a victory of a touchdown or more.

Notre Dame -20.5:
Maryland’s nationally televised Labor Day win over the short-handed Hurricanes etched the Terps into the public’s mind as being a good team.  However, Maryland has only covered once since then, that being their back-door cover over Georgia Tech after the Yellow Jackets dominated the game early and lost their focus allowing the Terps to come back.  Since then Maryland has lost their last four games straight up and against the spread.

Notre Dame has performed the opposite of Maryland.  Early struggles with turnovers led to an 0-2 start which branded them as underachievers.  However, since their poor start they have won all but one of their games.

The Irish defense is playing well, giving up 350 yards per game against good competition.  They should be to handle the Maryland offense which has only scored 15 points per game in their last three.

The Terps are also giving up 33 points per game in their last three and 450 yards per game for the season.  The Irish are averaging over 400 yards per game and should be able to top 500 yards here.

Against Navy and Air Force, teams with higher power ranking than Maryland, Notre Dame won by scores of 56-14 and 59-33.  Expect a similar score in this one.

Colorado +10:
Arizona and Colorado share a similar problems, they cannot win on the road and they have poor defenses that are allowing over 400 yards per game.

Both teams are also struggling to find the win column as Arizona has lost seven of eight, giving up at least 34 points in each loss.  Colorado has performed even worse losing seven straight SU and ATS allowing over 31 points in each game.

Colorado has seen the return of many of their more talented players.  They also impressed on their opening drive against USC last week and had a few other glimmers of hope for their offense.

Arizona’s good passing game should be able to stack up points against the Buffs poor secondary.

However, the  Wildcats are laying ten points on the road and have a shabby defense themselves.

Colorado has not had a pleasant welcome to the Pac 10, but they have certainly played better at home, with the exception of Oregon, which is certainly excusable.  In Boulder, they only lost to Cal by 3, Washington State by 4, and made a good effort against USC last week.

Expect the Buffs to provide another strong effort in their final home game and keep this one close.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
So Miss -8.5
Arizona -3.5
Missouri +3
Cincinnati -3

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Louisville +13
Texas Tech +14
Stanford -20.5
Louisiana Tech +3.5
Arkansas State -17

So Miss -8.5:
Southern Miss has won and covered 6 in a row, winning by an average of 24 points per game during this stretch.

This week they take on an East Carolina team who beat the Eagles last year in a 44-43 shootout with USM blowing an early 20-point lead.

Both teams beat Navy despite allowing 35 points as USM topped the Midshipmen three weeks ago by a score of 63-35 while ECU prevailed in a more exciting 38-35 game two weeks ago.

East Carolina has a good short passing game, but USM only allowed a total of 16 points in the past two weeks against the two good passing teams (SMU and UTEP.)

ECU has scored between 34 and 38 points in each of their last three games, but those were against weak defenses.  In the Pirates prior two games against Houston and UNC they only scored 3 and 20 points.

Southern Miss has a large advantage in running the ball which should help them control the clock. Unlike East Carolina, the Eagles are a well balanced team as they can also throw the ball effectively. Their good mix of play calling has allowed them to keep opposing defenses off-balance which has resulted in them scoring between 27 and 63 points in each game during their six game roll.

Both teams can score points but SM has much better defense and will keep the Pirate offense on the sidelines with their strong running game.

Despite their recent success, Southern Miss remains one of the more under-rated teams as most of the national attention in Conference USA has been focused on the sexier Houston scoring machine.  Until the nation pays notice that Southern Miss may the best team in the conference, keep soaring with the Eagles.

Arizona -3.5:
The energized Wildcats are a different and much better team than their record and stats indicate while Utah is not as good with Hays behind center.  This provides good value as the Wildcats should prevail at home.

Arizona is coming off a competitive 31-42 loss at Washington in which they held a 4^th quarter lead before turnovers did them in.  Utah played the Huskies earlier in the season and lost to the Huskies by a score of 31-14.

Utah is coming off a 27-8 win over an Oregon State team that beat the Wildcats 37-27.   However, the Beavers helped the Utes out with several turnovers while Utah had trouble passing.

Both teams have also played USC.  Arizona lost 41-48 while Utah lost to the Trojans 14 to 23 when a last second fg was blocked and returned for touchdown in one of the greatest point spread controversies of all time.

Utah has a good rush defense, but Arizona qb Foles is throwing for nearly 8 yards per attempt and should have success moving the ball against the Utes.

Utah showed last week they can run the ball, but they are not throwing the ball well since losing their starting quarterback.  This should enable the Cats to load up on the run and provide some stops.

These two teams are heading in different directions with Arizona looking like they are enjoying building for the future while the Utes are struggling.  Take these Cats at home.

Missouri +3:
Missouri and Baylor have played the same four teams in the past month (KSU, ISU, OSU, TxAM). Missouri has gone 2-2 with an average score of 33-29 against these four teams while Baylor has only beaten Iowa State in this span,  with a four game average score of 34 to 44.

While  both teams can score points, Missouri has a big edge on defense. Baylor has yielded 110 points in the past two weeks and Missouri is certainly capable of scoring over 50 points in this game.

Missouri has a very strong running game that Baylor is not equipped to stop.  The Tigers should be able to top 5 yards per carry and run for well over 200 yards.  If Baylor stacks the box, Missouri has the balance to beat them through the air.

Baylor will likely also have success on offense, but Missouri has a better defense than Baylor and should manage a couple stops which are all they may need to win this one.

Baylor has not done well against teams that can score points.  With Kansas still on the schedule, Missouri will essentially lock up bowl eligibility with a win.  With Texas and Texas Tech still on the schedule, they should be focused here and pound out a win with their running game.

Cincinnati -3:
Pitt rb Graham has been the Panthers primary offensive weapon, but he is now out for the season. Pitt would have had a difficult time running against the Bearcats with Graham and certainly will struggle without him carrying the ball.

The Bearcats are coming off a 37 to 34 win at South Florida.  Pitt defeated USF 44-17 at home in the Panthers best effort of the season, but did so with rb Graham dominating the game.

Pitt had some success throwing last week, but that was against UConn, the Bearcats won’t allow the tight end to run free down the middle play after play like the Huskies.

Cincinnati has better passing offense which is what will win this game as both teams will struggle to run the ball effectively.

The Bearcats have had a week off to prepare for this game and should take care of the wounded Panthers.

Louisville +13:
Louisville has been improving through the season and has now won four straight ATS and 5 of 6, with their only ATS loss being a 17-13 defeat to Marshall, a team West Virginia defeated 34-13 in an abbreviated game to start the season.

These two teams have both played Rutgers and Syracuse the past two weeks, with West Virginia splitting two road games and Louisville winning both at home (Rutgers 16-14 and Syracuse 27-10.)  While WVU  came back in the second half to beat Rutgers 41-31 last week, Syracuse soundly defeated the Mountaineers 49-23 two weeks ago.

Louisville has a big advantage on defense in this game while West Virginia has a big advantage offensively.

The Cardinal defense will likely hold the Mountaineers offense below their season average in points while their improving offense should be able to score enough points against West Virginia to keep this game within two touchdowns.

Defenses are appearing to have figured something out in limiting West Virginia’s passing offense.  Unlike last week in their win against Rutgers, the Mountaineers won’t be able to revert to the run against the Louisville D.

Louisville played WVU tough the past two years, keeping the game within single digits.  The Cardinals are playing strong defense and are improving on offense while West Virginia is regressing somewhat.  West Virginia may very well come away with the win, but this should once again see a tight finish.

Texas Tech +14:
While on the surface it is worrisome to back a team that was just destroyed by Iowa State, in Texas Tech’s three previous games they defeated Oklahoma, stayed within 7 of Kansas State and only lost to Texas AM by 5.  They also defeated Nevada by one point earlier in the season.  Thus, the Red Raiders have demonstrated they can hang with any team they are focused on and they certainly will put their best effort forward against the Longhorns.

The Red Raiders admitted they were not focused in last week’s embarrassing 41-7 loss to Iowa State, a team Texas beat by a score of 37-14 earlier this season.

Prior to losing to the Cyclones, Texas Tech upset Oklahoma on the road 41-38 who the Longhorns lost to 55-17.

Texas is coming off of an easy 43-0 win over a Kansas team Texas Tech only beat by a score of 45-34.

Texas is not as good at stopping the pass as their stats indicate as the Longhorns have played several poor passing teams. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, on the other hand, piled up the yards through the air against the Longhorns.  Texas Tech was able to throw for over 400 yards against Oklahoma just a couple weeks ago and should be able to do the same against Texas this week.

Texas will be able to control the ball running against the Red Raider’s poor run defense.  It will not be surprising to see Texas Tech load up on the run to force Texas into a shootout that will better suit the Red Raiders.

The public is over-reacting to the Red Raider’s embarrassing performance last week and Texas’ dominating win over lowly Kansas.  Look for Texas Tech to hang tough against their rival Texas, who considers other teams to be their rivals.  Even if Tech falls behind by a few touchdowns, they are the type of team that can provide a back door cover.

Stanford -20.5:
This is not a good situation for Stanford as they are coming of an exciting overtime win over USC last week and have Oregon on deck.

However, Stanford would like to slip into the second slot of the National Championship and have thus taken care of business against every opponent as USC was the first team to come within 27 points of Stanford.  Students at Stanford are used to having to focus to achieve academic success, so this situation may be overplayed by the public, especially in knowing they have to do more than simply beat Oregon to play for the national title.

Both Stanford and Oregon State scored 37 points against Arizona and 44 points against Washington State.  Stanford beat Arizona 37-10 while OSU won 37-27  Stanford topped Washington State 44-14 while OSU won 44-21.

Against their third common opponent, Stanford beat UCLA 45-19 while the Beavers lost to the Bruins 19-27.

Oregon State has no9t played well against ranked teams as they lost 35-0 to Wisconsin and 35 to 20 against Arizona State.

Stanford is rolling offensively as the only time they have not scored at least 44 points was against Arizona when they “only” managed 37
points.  Stanford should pile up the points against a Beaver pass defense that is giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

Oregon State has had inconsistent efforts offensively and could only muster 8 points against Utah last week.  Their defense has been more consistent, but not necessarily good, as they have allowed between 27 and 38 points in every game except Washington State.

Stanford has covered the spread in every game this year and 12 straight going back to last season.  There is no reason not to keep playing on Stanford here as they have beaten every team, sans USC ,by more than three touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech +3.5:
Louisiana Tech has been solid, if not spectacular, as they have covered five 5 of last six games.

La Tech and Fresno have played two common opponents with La Tech topping Idaho 24-11 and Fresno defeating the Vandals 48-24.  Both teams also beat Utah State with Fresno beating them by ten points at home and La Tech beating them by a touchdown on the road last week.

LA Tech is good at controlling the ball and should do well against a Fresno D that is giving up more than 5 yards per carry. The LA Tech defense is improving, as they have yielded less than 19 points per game in their last three.

This game should be closely fought, but with La Tech receiving the points and likely controlling the ground game, there is value on the visitor despite the long flight.

Arkansas State -17:
Arkansas State is clearly the superior team here as they have large advantage in both the running and passing games on both sides of the ball.

Arkansas beat North Texas last week much more soundly than the 37-14 score indicates.  Florida Atlantic lost to North Texas 31-17 a month ago.

Both teams also played Western Kentucky. Arkansas State beat WKU 26-22 while Florida Atlantic was shut out by them 20 to 0.

FAU offense is only averaging 221 yard per game while the FAU pass defense is allowing 7 yard per attempt. FAU has allowed 30 or more points in all but one game and have only score a total of 31 points in their last three games.

Arkansas State has a better offense than the last three teams to top 30 points against FAU.  The ASU defense will likely hold the weak FAU offense to fewer than 14 points.  It is thus hard not to envision a likely cover for Arkansas State.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
So Miss -10
Mississippi State -10

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Bowling Green -3.5
UAB +5.5
Iowa -15.5
Michigan State +4
Texas Tech -14.5
Hawaii -7
Oklahoma State -14.5
Stanford -7.5

Mississippi State -10:
Mississippi State only beat the Wildcats by 7 points at home last year and now must lay ten points on the road.

Although the Bulldogs have a losing record, they were competitive in all four losses to the likes of Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. Kentucky, on the other hand, has been anything but competitive in their conference games as they have lost their last three SEC games 137 to 20.

These two teams have two common opponents.  Mississippi St lost to LSU in a hard fought 19-6 game while the Tigers easily beat Kentucky 35-7.  Last week, the Bulldogs lost to South Carolina 14 to 12 while the Gamecocks thumped Kentucky 54-3.

Miss St has a huge edge on defense and has only allowed 17 points in their last 2 games while Kentucky has only scored 10 points in last two FBS games.

Kentucky will have trouble putting up points against the Bulldogs while Mississippi State should be able to move the ball well enough on the ground to score a few touchdowns.  The Bulldogs likely need this game to become bowl eligible, so they will likely come in focused and well-prepared off their bye.

So Miss -10:
Southern Miss is coming off a 27-3 win over an SMU team that had scored 38+ points in their previous four games.  UTEP played SMU earlier in the season with an opposite result, losing 28-17.

UTEP has won six straight ATS while Southern Miss has won and covered every game since their shockingly poor start in the season’s first two weeks.

Hidden in the Miners ATS success is the 101 points they gave up in the two weeks prior to their past two games against poor offensive teams.

Southern Miss clearly has the better offense and also has a superior defense.  The Eagles have scored 48+ points three times and is fully capable of putting up many more points than the public is anticipating here as they have averaged over 550 yards of offense the past few weeks.

UAB +5.5:
UAB is coming in this week fresh off their first win, a 26-24 victory over a UCF team that beat Marshall two weeks prior 16-6.

UAB continues to improve, winning their last 5 games ATS.  Last week, both teams had excellent offensive outputs, but the Blazers did so against a tough Central Florida defense.

This matchup should be a closely fought contest, so UAB should benefit from receiving points.  Marshall has not won any games by a touchdown or greater as their three wins were only by margins of 4, 4, and 6 points, including a 4 point win over Rice in their last home game.

Iowa -15.5:
Iowa lost to Minnesota last year 27-24, but Minnesota has greatly regressed, losing their three Big 10 games by 58, 28, and 27 points.

Iowa has scored more than 40 points four times including their last two games where they have scored 86 points.  Last week against Indiana, Iowa scored touchdowns on all five of their first half drives and added a field goal on their only third quarter possession.

Look for the Hawkeyes to repeat their offensive performance against a poor Gopher defense.  Minnesota simply cannot score enough points to keep pace with the Hawkeyes.  Last season’s loss likely prevents Iowa from losing focus and adds incentive to keep tacking on points until the game is well in-hand.

Michigan State +4:
Michigan State is coming off a miraculous 37-31 home win over a Wisconsin team that earlier had destroyed Nebraska 48-17 in Madison.

Michigan State’s win over the Badgers last week likely does notpunch their ticket to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game unless the Huskers lose another conference game. The Spartans should thus not have a letdown coming off three straight big games as they will want to hand that loss to Nebraska themselves.

Prior to the Badgers, Michigan State had only allowed four total touchdowns in their previous three games. Nebraska has a very good run game, but Michigan State is more than capable of limiting the Huskers ground game.  NU quarterback Martinez is fairly effective throwing when he has the defense off-balance, but he can be a train wreck passing in third and long situations.

Michigan State’s offense has been far from stellar running the ball, but Nebraska’s defense is not playing up to expectations and is now without A-A defensive lineman Crick.  Teams have had success running straight at Nebraska and then burning the aggressive Husker safeties on play action, just the kind of game the Spartans likely wish to play.

Nebraska has only been able to cover the spread against two teams they could simply over-power with their run game (Wyoming and Minnesota.)  Nebraska will be forced to pass more than they like this week and will likely fail to cover for the sixth time this year.

Bowling Green -3.5:
Bowling Green is coming off consecutive home games against the top teams in the MAC.  The Falcons suffered a narrow 7-point loss to Toledo and an upset Temple last week.

Prior to last week’s bye, Kent lost 9-3 to a Miami, OH team that Bowling Green defeated 37-23.

Bowling Green’s greatest weakness is their run defense, but they were able to beat a strong running Temple team last week.  Kent simply is not a good running team and likely will not be able to fully exploit this weakness in the Falcons D.

Kent’s offense is struggling as they only average 7 points a game against FBS schools, including just 3 points in their last game.  If Kent cannot run the ball, they will likely have trouble scoring against a Bowling Green defense that held Temple to 10 points last week and Toledo to 0 first half points two weeks ago.

Bowling Green’s offense is not finding the end zone often, as they have averaged less than 17 points in their last four games.  However, two touchdowns may be enough to cover, just as Miami OH did against the tough Kent D, winning 9 to 3 two weeks ago on the road as 3.5 point favorites.  If the Redhawks can cover here as 3.5 point favorites, a better Falcon team should cover as well.

Texas Tech -14.5:
Coming off a huge upset win against Oklahoma and a big match against Texas next on the docket, this week’s game against Iowa State could be a poor situational matchup for Tech.  However, the Red Raiders likely will not forget their 52-38 lost to the Cyclones last season, so they should be focused

Iowa State lost big on the stat sheet again last week against Texas A&M, but only managed to lose by 33-17, providing some value this week.  Tech also lost to the Aggies 45 to 40, but they were much more impressive offensively in their loss.

Texas Tech scored at least 34 points in every game  and are now going against a Cyclone defense that is allowing over six touchdowns a game in Big 12 play.

Iowa State only scored 17 points in each of their last two games and is only averaging 18.5 points in Big 12 play.  They likely won’t be able to keep pace with the Texas Tech team that should easily score at least 5 to 7 touchdowns.

Hawaii -7:
Hawaii beat Idaho on the island last year 45-10, but this year it is Hawaii having to make the long and difficult journey.

Although travelling to Idaho is not an easy trip for Hawaii, Idaho has lost home games to Bowling Green by 17; Fresno by 24; and La Tech by 13; all teams I rank below Hawaii and two of which had fairly long road trips
themselves..

Both teams previous game was against New Mexico State.  The Warriors won their match against the Aggies 45-34 while the Vandals lost to them by a score of 31-24.  In Idaho’s previous game, they lost to La Tech 24-11, a team Hawaii previously defeated44-26.

Hawaii’s offense is playing well and should be able to put up several scores on the weak Vandal secondary. Idaho, on the other hand has not scored more than 24 points against any FBS team this season nor have they beaten an FBS team.  Unless Hawaii repeats the turnover performance they had at San Jose, they should easily cover the touchdown spread.

Oklahoma State -14.5:
Oklahoma beat Baylor last year by a score of 55 to 28, which ironically matches the score of Baylor’s last game, which they lost against a Texas AM squad that Oklahoma State had earlier defeated 30-29.

Oklahoma State is rolling offensively as the only teams they have not beaten by more than 2 touchdowns are Texas and Texas AM.

While Baylor can put up points, their defense will have trouble forcing Oklahoma State to punt.  Look for the Cowboys to top 50 for the fourth time this year and win by at least two touchdowns.

Stanford -7.5:
Stanford won a close 37-35 game against USC last year, but the closest game Stanford has been involved in this year was a 37-10 win over an Arizona squad USC  only beat by a touchdown (48-41.)

On offense, Stanford not only has one of the best college quarterbacks to come along in several years, they can also run the ball effectively as they demonstrated last week.  While most of the focus has been on the Cardinal offense, the defense is no slouch as they have held 5 of their 7 opponents to 14 or fewer points.

USC has a good run defense, but they have allowed more than 40 points twice as their pass defense is below average.  Don’t be surprised if Stanford becomes the third team this year to top 40 points on the Trojan defense as Luck shreds their secondary.