A Bettor World

Peyton Manning led his team on a record tying road comeback win, taking his team from a 24-0 halftime deficit to a 35-24 victory.

The game certainly did not start out well trading-wise, as it appeared a recent slump would continue.

You can spend hours analyzing every aspect of a game, but you can not realistically project a team will muff away a punt, follow it up by fumbling away the ensuing kickoff (first time a team accomplished that less than stellar feat in 11 years), and later have a receiver fall down while running in for a touchdown that would cut the lead to three, only to have the opposing team convert a pick-6 two plays later.

That basically sums up the first half of trading as the Broncos gave away the ball immediately following three good trading entries tonight that provided no opportunity to minimize the damage. .

But that was the first half. Momentum can be a funny thing in football. The inability to trade out of a chain of trading disasters turned into a blessing.

The game looked to be over at halftime, but Denver came out of the locker room scorching hot, scoring 28 unanswered points in under 21 minutes as Peyton Manning looked as good as ever.

While it was tempting to let this good run continue with a large green number, it was best to green up nicely, keeping in mind the winnings were more than the number won, they were the winning number PLUS the number that looked certain to be lost at halftime.  It is best not to let greed allow one go from a certain loss to a big win and then come back to an inexcusable and avoidable loss.  At a minimum, one should take off the risk, but with a good comeback like this, you should not allow yourself to go to bed empty-handed.

As the game neared the two-minute warning, one was certainly happy to have greened up as Philip Rivers looked like he may put together another game winning drive.  However, Denver intercepted an out-route that they took to the house, making it the first time a team trailed by 24 points and won by double digits.

The New Orleans Saints (-3.5) came from behind three times to win by seven points that provided multiple opportunities to trade successfully with long odds.

San Diego appeared to put the game away early in the fourth quarter as they returned an interception for a touchdown that would have given them a 17 point lead.  However, a roughing the passer gave the Saints the ball back.  Drew Brees then went on to score touchdown drives on their final two possessions.

After falling behind 7-0, there was a good opportunity to take the Saints at long odds.  They made the trade pay off, as they notched the score up a 7 each.

From that point, there were many opportunities to trade in the green, that is trading part of your green numbers on the long odds to remove all red, and then trading with the long odds with less then your green numbers to keep building the size of your winnings with no risk for a loss.

Any Baltimore backer who thought they were on their way to an easy victory after the Ravens took a 17-3 lead must not have read my last two NFL summaries as the Bengals put together a very impressive bookend possessions around halftime.

On the front side of the half, the Bengals took the ball with 5:34 remaining in the half and went on a 13-play 81 yard touchdown drive.  While the drive did not start as a classic bookend, just as with the Steelers the night before, as they neared mid-field, it was certainly a good time to back the Bengals with very nice long odds.

Following halftime, the Bengals moved 79 yards in 12 plays to the Ravens 1 yard line before settling for a field goal.  This moved the odds to even, providing a nice opportunity to green up.

Although the Ravens did not have a real snap for 52 minutes of actual time and over 11 minutes of football time, it was a good opportunity to  slant your green numbers to Baltimore as they moved the ball well in all of their previous possessions.  Such a strategy of putting most of your green numbers on the better team with near even money worked out well as they responded with two touchdowns and a field goal in their next three possessions to cruise to victory in the end.

Much like last night, this game demonstrated how money could be made backing either side as long as the timing on both entering and exiting a trade is strategically implemented.

 In the night’s second nationally televised game, an injury to Oakland’s long snapper helped San Diego put the game away.

With San Diego holding a 10 to 6 lead, Oakland was punting near midfield providing an opportunity to pin the Chargers deep.  However, the Raiders fill-in snapper rolled the ball back to the punter who had to eat the ball.  The Chargers turned the error into a field goal to take a seven-point lead.

After stopping the Raiders on their next possession, the Chargers likely were encouraged to put on a punt block strategy due to an expected bad snap.  Although the snap was good, Oakland missed a block, enabling the Chargers to block the punt and cash in another field goal.

Two drives latter, Oakland once again rolled the snap on a punt to provide San Diego another field goal that put the game well in hand.

The lesson in this game is to avoid backing teams when obvious signs of danger are present.  ignoring injuries to unappreciated players such as snappers, kickers, and cornerbacks can lead to expensive lessons.

Although the San Diego Chargers scored on their first five possessions tonight, it was their touchdowns book-ending halftime that allowed them to pull away.

When the Chargers took possession near the end of the first half, they only led 10-7 in what was a competitive game.

San Diego then closed the first half scoring a touchdown without leaving the Ravens time for a drive.  They then opened the second half with an 8-play, 80-yard touchdown drive to take a 24-7 lead.

The Chargers then intercepted a pass which they turned into a touchdown to put the game away before the third quarter had ended.

Regular readers know one of the ‘bread and butter’ strategies I recommend is to back a high-flying offense taking the ball just before the half when they are scheduled to receive the second half kickoff.

Tonight the Chargers provided a rare touchdown trifecta with the bookend strategy.

Just after Jacksonville made a stunning comeback to take a four point lead with 2:32 remaining before the half, the stage was set to enter a backing bet on San Diego with long odds.  The Chargers, who had moved the ball well earlier in the half, scored a touchdown in just over a minute.

This  allowed enough time for the Chargers to intercept a pass and score a second touchdown to take a ten point lead going into halftime.

With the Chargers offense cruising and set to receive the second half kickoff, there was no need to even consider greening up.  The Chargers then took the ball 80 yards in five plays to open the second half and essentially put the game away.

From an entry point with long odds, the Chargers scored three touchdowns in a stretch that only allowed the Jaguars to touch the ball once.  It is thus easy to see why this is a great bread and butter strategy.

However, if the Jaguars were the set to receive a bookend opportunity, you should be less inclined to take it.  The Jaguars pedestrian offense is not well suited for this strategy.  It is best left for higher scoring offenses or teams demonstrating an ability to easily move the ball in the first half.

It did not look like there would be a bookend opportunity early on as the Chargers  jumped out to a 10-0 lead.  At that point it looked like the Chargers would run away with the game early and have the game in hand well beofre halftime.

However, Jacksonville put together two long scoring drives to score 14 unanswered points while eating up most of the second quarter clock.  The first Jaguar touchdown drive was methodical enough to allow early backers of the Chargers an opportunity to green up.  It also set the stage for the best bookend play of the season.

The Oakland Raiders (+6.5) led against the spread for all 60 minutes in their straight up win over San Diego  which provides them sole possession of first place in the AFC West.

While the Raiders trailed 3-0 for most of the first quarter, once Oakland took a 7-3 lead late in the first quarter, San Diego really never threatened to cover as Oakland controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

In a game like this, it is best to ride the dog for the cover.  If one has any interest in the favorite, it would be a better option to hold Oakland and the points and back the Chargers on the money line once they received long odds.

The New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers were both able to beat the point spread today due to their inability to pick up a first down that would have enabled them to run out the clock and seal the victory beneath the point spread.

Instead, they kicked field goals to top the point spread which they both were able to hold on to in the final minute.

This situation created significant volatility as the binary value of each team swung wildly at the end of the game.

In the New England-New York Jets game, Patriots were able to get a first down at the Jets 17 yard line with two minutes remaining and holding a 6 point lead (the spread was 7.5 points.)  With the Jets having just two timeouts remaining, the Pats primary objective of their final drive was to gain one more first down and run out the clock.

On their next two plays the Patriots gained 4 yards on first down and moved within inches of the first down on second down.  This dropped the Patriots binary value from 84 to 73 to 48 (1.19 to 1.37 to 2.08) as it looked like they would make the first down.

Some people may have figured they could back the Jets here and double their money in one play as Tom Brady could run a quarterback sneak to seal the victory.

However, on the next play the Patriots were stopped and kicked a field goal to top the spread.  People who thought volatility would bring them a quick and easy win, suffered a quick and frustrating loss.

It is best to stay clear of situations where volatility is swinging wildly unless your educated estimation indicates the market is mis-priced. (educated estimation implying you have done your homework and understand the situational probabilities.)