A Bettor World

Sides:
Houston -3.5
Chicago -2.5
New England +2

Totals
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati Under 41
Washington/Miami Under 38
St Louis/Cleveland Under 37
Baltimore/Seattle Under 41
NY Giants/San Francisco Under 42.5

Teasers:
None

Sides:
New Orleans -13.5
New England -2.5

Totals
Cleveland/San Francisco Under 38.5
Cincinnati/Seattle Under 37.5

Teaser:
None

Sides:
San Francisco +4
New England -6

Totals:
None

4-Team Teaser:
Baltimore -1
Cincinnati -0.5
Oakland -0.5
New Orleans Even

San Francisco +4
While Detroit is unbeaten, two of their wins were  only by 3 and 4 points as they had to overcome 20 and 24 point deficits. San Francisco ‘s only loss was in overtime by 3 points to Dallas.

Detroit has an explosive passing game, but they have not run the ball consistently, which will be needed against the 49ers strong defense. San Francisco is a mirror image on offense with a strong, consistent running game, but not a top flight passing team.

The 49ers have won three straight including a three-touchdown comeback against the Eagles and a demolition of Tampa Bay last week.  Detroit is unbeaten, but looked vulnerable in al their wins, excluding their win over the Chiefs.

The one good running team Detroit played  was the vikings and they took a 20 point lead.  If the 49ers can run on Detroit, their defense will be much more difficult to come back against. Look for San Francisco to keep this game within the points.

New England -6:
New England has won by more than six points in each of their victories and held a 21 point lead in their only loss.

Dallas is coming off a break, which should have them well prepared and could give the Patriots difficulty in stopping them.  However, the Cowboys have been prone to making turnovers at the worst times.  They can not afford empty drive against the Patriots.

New England has scored at least 30 points in all of their games this season while Dallas’ best output this season was 30 points against the Lions.  The Patriots should be able to create mismatches with their receivers against the Cowboys secondary to put up yet another three-handle and cover.

Sides:
Miami +1
Baltimore -4.5

Totals:
Miami/Cleveland Under 41.5
San Francisco/Cincinnati under 40

2 Team Teaser
New England -1
Atlanta +7

Today’s featured NFL games demonstrated that trading can be easier and more profitable than gambling before kickoff which provides no control of your finances once the ball is kicked off.

In tonight’s Atlanta-Philadelphia matchup, gambler’s emotions swung from exuberance to disappointment several times, while traders could have made money regardless of which, if any, team they had a bias.

After the Falcons took an early lead, Eagle backers were able to buy in cheaper than they could pregame.  Mike Vick had his Eagles looking like the dominant team until they fumbled near the goal line in what was looking like the beginning of a route.  Atlanta’s value doubled in that one play for any Falcon fan knowledgable enough to know the touchdown was mostly priced in before the defensive turnover, so if they were going to jump on Atlanta, it was worth jumping in befoire the score.

As Atlanta took an 11-point lead thanks in part to an interception that should not have counted, Philly backers had another good entry point as they were clearly moving the ball better than Atlanta, but were behind do to turnovers.  Philly then went on to score three straight touchdowns until Mike Vick was injured and had to leave the game.

Vick’s injury provided the first obvious buying opportunity for the Falcons who went on to score the next 14 points and the win.  Atlanta’s last possession, when they were running down the clock, provided a cheap flyer for Philly fans who remembered DeSean Jackson’s late punt return for a touchdown last season against the Giants.  Although the cheap trade did not work, Jackson did have a chance to return the punt and Philly was able to throw up a hail mary.

New England also provided some profitable entry points that provided better returns and less heartburn than persons that simply gambled on the Patriots.

San Diego backers also had several cheap entries that were profitable if one greened up in the fourth quarter.

New England had a very profitable entry similar to Atlanta’s as they stopped San Diego on fourth and one at their one.  As discussed in other posts, when teams have a first down near the goal line, most of the value of an offensive touchdown is priced in to the trading.  Thus, if you plan to take the defensive team after the offense scores, it is often worthwhile to take the defensive team before the score because a turnover provides a significant boost in value.

New England’s most profitable buying opportunity actually came late in the game off of a fumble recovery. Even if one did not take New England before the turnover, but had faith in Tom Brady who was red-hot again, they were able to double their stake on a single 61 yard scoring drive.

New Orleans also could have been traded at a greater return than pre-game punters.  After Chicago took an early 7-0 lead, New Orleans could be bought for an attractive price.

While the final score looked like a route, New Orleans essentially won the game on two plays.  With  Chicago leading 7-3, Drew Brees beat the Bears safety on a beautifully thrown 79-yard touchdown bomb (long pass.)

After Chicago fought back to 13-10, the Bears looked like they could take the momentum and cover the spread, if not win.  However, Jay Cutler, who was under pressure all day, was blindsided on a sack and turned the ball over on a fumble.  New Orleans quickly cashed in for the lead and all the momentum.  Traders with a good eye could see the Bears became deflated at that point and knew not to jump on the Bears, but to ride the Saints.

A record-breaking night as Tom Brady set both a Monday Night passing yards record and tied the unbreakable record for the longest touchdown pass.

Tom Brady was in mid-season form throwing for 517 yards including a beautiful pass that Wes Welker took for a 99-yard touchdown to seal the ATS win.  It was the 13th 99-yard touchdown in NFL history.

Later in the evening, Sebastian Janikowski tied a 41-year old record by nailing a 63 yard field goal just before halftime.  Raider punter Shane Lechler solidified the Raiders as the strongest-legged kicking team in the NFL with a 77-yard punt that traveled 75 yards in the air from the line-of scrimmage.

Trading-wise, the biggest lesson from tonight’s game was how big a swing a single play can make in a game.

In the first game, New England was dominating on offense even though they led by just seven at the half.  Tom Brady had move his team to near mid-field when a short screen pass was deflected back to a waiting Dolphins lineman who returned it near the end zone to set up a tying touchdown.  New England’s binary value fell from 82 to 57 in that one play.  Fortunately for Patriots backers, Tom Brady took control of the remainder of the game leading his team to a 14-point victory.

Bronco backers were not so lucky.  Early in the fourth quarter, Denver was trailing by 3, but had stolen the game’s momentum and was driving the ball to tie or take the lead in this sloppy, penalty-filled game.  But then in an instant, Kyle Orton dropped a slick ball as he prepared to pass.  The Raiders pounced on the ball raising the Raider’s binary value from 55 to 76.  Three plays later the Raiders had a ten point lead and a binary value of 97.

Yesterday was Patriot Day, tonight will be Patriots Day.

New England beat Miami by 27 and 31 points last year. While past scores are not always prelude, especially in professional football, Miami had no answer for New England last year and Tom Brady looked as sharp as ever in the preseason.

Laying 7 points with the visiting team in the first week of the NFL is generally not a recipe for success, but you can certainly make an exception when Tom Brady and Coach Belichick roll into town, you can make an exception.  Take New England laying the seven.

If you followed our recommendation to take New England with San Diego and Houston in a three-team teaser, you may have a money management decision to make.

If New England wins by more than one point, you will win 1.8 times your stake (you win your stake if they win by one) without adding to your risk.  If you back New England -7, you win 140% your double stake if New England wins by more than 7, you win 40% of your double stake if New England wins by more than one or lose your double stake if Miami wins outright.

You could also take Miami +7 and hope for a middle giving you a 180% reward to nothing risked opportunity if New England wins by less than 7.  However, you would only have approximately a 1 in 3 chance of winning.  (You could also place the Miami bet between the risk and reward of the teaser to guarantee a minimum profit regardless of the outcome.

Normally, I would like taking the dog with 7 points and try for the middle with the risk/reward determined by how likely I believe the dog can cover.  In this game, if you take this strategy with Miami, I would just try to break even with a Miami victory stacking the rewards on a New England victory.

My recommendation for this game is to treat the side and the teaser as separate bets.  Let the teaser ride and back New England before the game.  However, with a New England victory giving you the teaser victory, I would cut the loss on the New England side quickly if Miami takes the lead to reduce risk while being quick to green up on New England if they can not extend their lead to a comfortable margin in the second half.

In game #2, I would trade with a neutral bias. (Enter when value presents itself, be the market maker, work the spread)

Two six-point teasers for the opening NFL weekend.

Three Team Teaser
New England -1
Houston -3
San Diego -3

Two Team Teaser
Cleveland -1
Arizona -1

New England made easy work of Miami last year and they looked sharp in the preseason.  Indianapolis will have a difficult time keeping up with the Houston scoring machine without Manning.  San Diego has a history of starting slow which will make them more focused while McNabb is new to Minnesota offense.  All three teams should win by at least a field goal.

Cleveland and Arizona should win straight up going against new quarterbacks in Cincinnati and Carolina.