Today’s featured NFL games demonstrated that trading can be easier and more profitable than gambling before kickoff which provides no control of your finances once the ball is kicked off.
In tonight’s Atlanta-Philadelphia matchup, gambler’s emotions swung from exuberance to disappointment several times, while traders could have made money regardless of which, if any, team they had a bias.
After the Falcons took an early lead, Eagle backers were able to buy in cheaper than they could pregame. Mike Vick had his Eagles looking like the dominant team until they fumbled near the goal line in what was looking like the beginning of a route. Atlanta’s value doubled in that one play for any Falcon fan knowledgable enough to know the touchdown was mostly priced in before the defensive turnover, so if they were going to jump on Atlanta, it was worth jumping in befoire the score.
As Atlanta took an 11-point lead thanks in part to an interception that should not have counted, Philly backers had another good entry point as they were clearly moving the ball better than Atlanta, but were behind do to turnovers. Philly then went on to score three straight touchdowns until Mike Vick was injured and had to leave the game.
Vick’s injury provided the first obvious buying opportunity for the Falcons who went on to score the next 14 points and the win. Atlanta’s last possession, when they were running down the clock, provided a cheap flyer for Philly fans who remembered DeSean Jackson’s late punt return for a touchdown last season against the Giants. Although the cheap trade did not work, Jackson did have a chance to return the punt and Philly was able to throw up a hail mary.
New England also provided some profitable entry points that provided better returns and less heartburn than persons that simply gambled on the Patriots.
San Diego backers also had several cheap entries that were profitable if one greened up in the fourth quarter.
New England had a very profitable entry similar to Atlanta’s as they stopped San Diego on fourth and one at their one. As discussed in other posts, when teams have a first down near the goal line, most of the value of an offensive touchdown is priced in to the trading. Thus, if you plan to take the defensive team after the offense scores, it is often worthwhile to take the defensive team before the score because a turnover provides a significant boost in value.
New England’s most profitable buying opportunity actually came late in the game off of a fumble recovery. Even if one did not take New England before the turnover, but had faith in Tom Brady who was red-hot again, they were able to double their stake on a single 61 yard scoring drive.
New Orleans also could have been traded at a greater return than pre-game punters. After Chicago took an early 7-0 lead, New Orleans could be bought for an attractive price.
While the final score looked like a route, New Orleans essentially won the game on two plays. With Chicago leading 7-3, Drew Brees beat the Bears safety on a beautifully thrown 79-yard touchdown bomb (long pass.)
After Chicago fought back to 13-10, the Bears looked like they could take the momentum and cover the spread, if not win. However, Jay Cutler, who was under pressure all day, was blindsided on a sack and turned the ball over on a fumble. New Orleans quickly cashed in for the lead and all the momentum. Traders with a good eye could see the Bears became deflated at that point and knew not to jump on the Bears, but to ride the Saints.