A Bettor World

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+9.5) became the fourth straight “bowldog” to cover in the early college postseason.

With 2:10 remaining in the third quarter, La Tech hit a 61 yard touchdown pass to take a 24-17 lead and take a solid 16.5 lead ATS.

This also created a great opportunity to take TCU +140 on the money line (straight up win) to provide a strong chance at an in-game middle.

There were many elements which made this in-game middle worth taking.  Even though TCU found themselves down by a touchdown, there was still over a quarter to play to pull out the win, yet there was a low probability of TCU both winning and covering.

Also, TCU had started to take control of the game.  The Horned Frogs bookended halftime with two touchdowns  to take a seven point lead.  La Tech’s comeback was more due to TCU mistakes than La Tech out-playing them (although the Bulldogs certainly outplayed TCU in the first half.)  La Tech’s two second half touchdowns came after TCU muffed a punt, giving the Bulldogs the ball on the 12, and on a long pass that was likely not to be duplicated.

From that point TCU totally dominated the game at the line of scrimmage as they went on an 18-play drive that greatly helped the middle by eating 9:20 off the clock.  TCU then stopped La Tech 3-and-out before scoring the touchdown that provided a nice in-game middle.

To review the recipe for this in-game middle, 1) you  first needed to have the underdog with the points (as mentioned yesterday, this game was expected to be close); 2) the favorite was playing well enough to pull out the win; 3) although there was plenty of time to pull out the straight up win, the favorite had a low probability of both winning and covering; and, 4) the favorite was receiving “long odds” on the moneyline.

Obviously if you have the cover in hand, you do not want to throw your winnings away trying for a low probability middle.  However, tonight’s game set up nicely for a very good chance of winning the in-game middle.

Detroit defensive lineman Ndamukong  Suh brought his comeback magic to the Husker’s sideline tonight as they scored 28 unanswered points to beat Ohio State by seven, creating a great middle between the 10.5 point spread and the money line.

The ex-Husker who was part of 20 and 24 point comebacks for the Lions in the past two weeks brought a vivid reminder as he stood on the Nebraska sideline that good teams can come back from large deficits.

Earlier today we mentioned how difficult it is to hit a middle.  That is certainly true on blowout winners.  Determining where to set the top of Oklahoma’s victory today is extremely difficult.  If you backed Oklahoma anywhere from -10.5 to -24.5 during the game, at what point do you take Texas to create the middle? At +30.5? At +34.5? At +37.5?  If you tried to middle Oklahoma at any of these points, you ended up turning a good winning position into a small loser.  IKf you are backing a blowout winner, do not get cute, just ride out the win.

The best middle opportunities are created when you have taken the dog at greater than a touchdown and they have the lead late in the game.  If the favored team is charging back, one can take the favorite on the money line if they have a very realistic chance of winning, hopefully without covering.

For most of the second half this was not the case in tonight’s Buckeye-Husker match.  It looked like Ohio State would not only easily cover, but win straight up.  There was no reason to risk a winning side bet with a middle even when Nebraska cut the Ohio State lead to 14.

However, when the Huskers cut the Buckeye lead to 27-20 with 1:44 remaining in the third quarter, Nebraska clearly had the momentum, Ohio State was without their starting quarterback, and the Ohio State defense was clearly starting to fatigue.  This was the time to shoot for a middle, because there was a very realistic chance they could come back to win and you could still back them on the long side of the odds.

From that point, the NU defense fed off the crowd, completely shutting down Ohio State and Nebraska scored touchdowns on two of their next three possessions for the middle.

The game also was a reminder why one should never back “certain winners” at 1.01.  Anyone who had backed Ohio State when they were winning the point spread by 31.5 points were certainly having to sweat out Nebraska’s final drive as they moved deep into Ohio State territory and were trying for first downs.  One could picture a missed tackle against a stacked defense leading to a potential cheap “front door” covering touchdown.

Oklahoma’s 38-point route of Texas today was very similar to Boise State’s win last night.  Oklahoma was dominant on both offense and defense from the start of the game and there was only one way to play this game, take Oklahoma on the short side of the odds and hold on to the finish.  Taking Texas on the long side of the odds looked to be like throwing money into the wind.

Traditional books offering in-play betting do offer an opportunity the betting exchanges do not provide.  Whereas trading on a betting exchange will keep the point spread  static at -10.5 throughout the game, many traditional books will adjust the point spread throughout the game.

Thus when Oklahoma was moving the ball on their first possession, rather than laying -150 (60; 1.67), you could have taken Oklahoma -13.5 points at -110 (52.5; 1.91) instead.

Later, when Oklahoma took a commanding 20 to 3 lead that looked like it would grow into a blowout, you may not want to lay -400 (80; 1.25) but rather risk -110 and take Oklahoma -24.5 points to provide a bigger profit, but at a greater level of risk.

There are some drawbacks to betting in-play on a traditional book. The biggest drawbacks are that it is much easier to green up on a betting exchange where the points spread is static and the odds are changing; and, you will always have to pay the full vig at a book whereas on an exchange you can potentially receive the vig in your favor.

Since you can not “green up” on a traditional book where the points spread changes, you either have to ride the bet to the finish or play for a middle  This can pay off big if you hit the middle (like was discussed last week in the  BYU-Utah State game), but it can be difficult to accomplish.  Also, if you miss the middle, an easy winner  could turn into a loss equal to the “juice.”

In today’s game there was no reason to green up and the traditional books offered an opportunity to jump on  the Oklahoma bandwagon with nearly four times the profit than laying four to one on the exchanges.  However, this  strategy should be limited to dominant teams that are clearly in complete control of a game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The value of having the ability to green up when a big leads suddenly becomes a small lead is an enormous advantage the exchanges provide.  Thus while traditional books can on occassion provide more profitable entries in-play, betting exchanges almost always provide more profitable, but not always as dependable, exits.

BYU caught a tipped pass with 11 seconds left to cap a 96 yard drive in the final 156 seconds to spoil Utah State’s first win in Provo since 1978 and what would have been a second consecutive upset of their in-state rival.

Utah State controlled the point spread from the start taking the first play of the game for an 80 yard touchdown.  The Aggies were provided a positive entry point after BYU took a 10-7 lead near the end of the first quarter.  From there, Utah State’s value steadily rose and backers of the Aggies did not have to consider greening up in the traditional sense.

However, BYU’s 7.5 point handicap along with their offensive success provided an excellent opportunity to take part or all of Utah State’s returns and place them on BYU on the money line.

When BYU was driving to cut Utah State’s lead to 4 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter. the money line provided positive value on the Cougars and a very realistic chance for a better than double or nothing opportunity by playing for a middle. (BYU winning by less than 7.5 points) BYU was moving the ball well and their defense was not playing badly, so it was certainly a chance worth taking on the better team at home, especially with the added knowledge that Utah State had already blown two other fourth quarter leads this season.

After stopping Utah State on four plays, BYU went on a long, steady drive and looked certain to take the lead.  However, BYU fumbled the ball away at the Aggie 20.

With 3:53 remaining and all three timeouts still available, it was worthwhile to hold on to the BYU middle, but risky to enter.  BYU stopped a conservative Utah State offensive effort with a three and out but their momentum bubble burst when the punt returner allowed the kick to hit the ground and roll to their own four yard line.  The quarterback was then tackled on the next play at their own two yard line.

After BYU hit a desperation pass for 40 yards to the USU 26 six plays later, BYU ran half the remaining distance to the end zone on a 13 yard run to the 13, but allowed 13 seconds to run of the clock reducing their chance of winning (and creating a bad oman with all those 13′s).  On the next play BYU caught the deflected pass for the miracle middle.

The key ingredients to this midlle was the home favorite was behind, yet playing relatively well witha very realistic chance of winning, but they had very low chance of covering the spread which was greater than a touchdown.  When this scenario arises, it is certainly worth taking.