A Bettor World

For all of the talk about the Big East not deserving an automatic BCS bid, if Clemson is the best the ACC has to offer, then maybe the ire directed at the Big East should be focused on the ACC.  (The Big East and non-BCS conferences have actually played better in these big games than the ACC.)

For a bowl season that has seen several poor defensive efforts, Clemson topped them all with one of the most pathetic defensive efforts in a bowl game EVER.  (Ever, as in the entire history of college bowl games.)

Clemson’s performance would not be excusable if they were playing on short rest in October, let alone to be playing in a BCS Bowl with A MONTH TO PREPARE.  It is simply an embarrassment to Clemson’s coaching staff to have their team this ill-prepared to play.  It is even more embarrassing to see a conference champion quit in the second quarter of a bowl game.

If anyone questions that Clemson quit, watch the number of defenders running at 3/4 speed when Geno Smith ran the ball in for a touchdown from seven yards out when the score was just 28-20.  That was a clear signal to back West Virginia even if one had to give more than 3 to 1, especially with the Mountaineers set to receive the second half kickoff.

To be fair, maybe the defenders were exhausted, but if that was the case, Clemson would have been better off to have their second string defenders in the game than to have their starters trotting around the field.

While West Virginia deserves credit for coming well prepared and motivated to play, Clemson’s defensive effort certainly aided them.  It appears like the more money some of these college coaches make, the worse the defenses play.

College football is not like the NFL where receivers can run clean after five yards.  Defenses can molest receivers all over the field.  It is simply inexcusable for so many receivers to be running so wide open when defenders can knock them off their routes and destroy their timing.  Heck, even if you get beat in college football you can tackle the receiver 40 yards down field before the ball arrives and only be penalized fifteen yards!

The Clemson coaching staff should donate every penny they made in the past month “preparing” for this game to the World Wildlife Federation’s ‘Adopt a Tiger’ program at: http://www.worldwildlife.org/gift-center/gifts/Species-Adoptions/Tiger.aspx?gid=33   It is the least they can do for insulting the prowess of the last few thousand remaining tigers in the wild.

I hope this game puts to rest why Alabama and LSU are playing a rematch for the national title game, they can play defense.  There are 105 teams that have given up more points per game than LSU and Alabama yield per game, COMBINED!

There are probably over 100 overpaid defensive coordinators that should be skipping their summer vacations and spending time earning their pay by watching film of LSU, Alabama and NFL teams to learn how to play defense.  Alabama and LSU may have slightly faster players on their defenses, but they are not that much faster.  It is just as much defensive coaching, desire and effort (and harassing receivers to not allow them to run clear) as it is athleticism.

Heck, if you can’t stop a team, drop 8 into coverage, beat up the wideouts, and make them work the ball up the field. You may yield yards, but you won’t be giving up 70 points!!!  Watch how the pros play cover 2 on third and long.  With bump and run defense, you should be able to keep everything in front of you and come up and make a tackle.  (It is amazing how many teams have converted on third and long this bowl season!)

While I love college football, I am not the only one concerned about so many of the games turning into arena ball.  While few people enjoy 3-0 games, people love the NFL because not only are points earned, first downs are earned.  It makes the game exciting.  Arena ball becomes monotonous after a while when teams can slip one tackler then run free for touchdown after touchdown.

This is also why Oklahoma State fans need to give it a rest that they should be playing in New Orleans next Monday.  The Cowboys would be lucky to be 17 point dogs.  If Stanford could walk up and down the field and put up 38 points on you, so could Alabama and LSU, only you would not be putting up a 3-handle on offense against those defenses.   Teams that lose to Iowa State don’t deserve to be in the conversation anyhow.

I will say, a bad blowout is still better than no football at all, which is what we unfortunately have tomorrow.  At least the next game between Arkansas and Kansas State will likely be a good, defensive fought, 45 to 35 game. (not exactly the 1966 Michigan State-Notre Dame game, but at least its football.)

College Football Selections for Week 4
Week 3 CFB Thur-Sat 8-3 ATS
Season CFB  21-12 ATS
Narrative following picks

Top Value Selections
Georgia -10
East Carolina -14

Other Selections with positive value:

LSU -5.5
Notre Dame -7
Fresno State -2.5
Texas AM ML -185
Utah State -10.5

Georgia -10:
Mississippi’s offense is struggling mightily behind surprisingly poor quarterback performance.  The Rebels offense was only able to muster 13 points against BYU and just 7 last week versus Vanderbilt.  This week Ole Miss has to face an even more athletic Bulldog D that should be able to limit the Rebels to 14 or fewer points.  The 1-2 Bulldogs know they must win this game to salvage their season and won’t hesitate to run up the score if they can.  Georgia scored over 100 points the past two weeks including 42 against South Carolina and they should score at least 24 points which should be sufficient to cover the spread.  Laying 10 points in a visit to Mississippi can normally provide second thoughts, but not this week as any early offensive struggles will likely result in jeers rather than cheers from the home crowd, negating the home field advantage.  If the crowd turns against Coach Nutt, this game could turn ugly quick.

East Carolina -14:
The Pirates led both Virginia Tech and South Carolina in the second half and now face an underperforming UAB squad.  While East Carolina has been competitive against two very good ballteams, UAB has lost both of their games by 39 points including a 49-10 loss to Tulane at home.  If and when East Carolina surpasses the point spread, their good pass defense should prevent UAB from covering the spread.  Traveling to East Carolina provides one less day for UAB to fix their offensive problems against a rested Pirate team coming off a bye.  This game has all the makings of a potential blowout.

LSU -5.5: West Virginia’s passing offense has been clicking as they are averaging over 40 points per game.  The Mountaineers have not been as successful running the ball, though.  This one-dimensional approach could spell trouble against an incredibly quick and talented LSU defense who will pin their ears back and rush qb Smith on every down.  LSU contained an even better, and more balance Oregon Duck offense and held Mississippi State’s fine offense without a touchdown.  Although not explosive, the LSU offense has been balanced and efficient.  West Virginia may be able to hang tough early, but LSU will wear down the Mountaineer defense to score points in the second half.  Even though LSU is the road team, they had two extra days of preparation for this game.  LSU’s defense will most likely prevent West Virginia from staying within a touchdown.

Notre Dame -7:
Even in their two losses, Notre Dame was able to move the ball for over 1,000 yards and lost due to turnovers.   Much like Georgia, the 1-2 Fighting Irish can’t afford a third loss at this point in the season and after their debacle with Michigan, they won’t let up if they jump out to a big lead. The Pitt Panthers are not as good as last year’s team that lost to Notre Dame by six, especially on defense where they yielded 60 points in the past two weeks to Main (29) and Iowa (31), both of which have far inferior offenses to Notre Dame.  Pittsburgh has not covered the spread yet this season and likely will not do so again this Saturday.

Fresno State -2.5:
One of the most typical mistakes amateur handicappers make is to compare two teams based solely on common opponents.  While this is certainly a valid point of comparison, it is but just one element in evaluating a matchup.  If one were to simply look at how both Idaho and Fresno performed against North Dakota, the Vandals would be the hands down selection as they beat the Fighting Sioux 44-14, while last week Fresno was lucky to escape with a 27-22 victory against the same team.  However, Fresno was coming off consecutive games against Cal and Nebraska, a team the Bulldogs led in the second half.  Fresno has shown good balance.  They had great success running the ball right at Nebraska’s strong defensive line and qb Carr has been efficient and is capable of putting up bigger numbers if called upon to do such.  Idaho has been an exciting team the past few years but qb Enderle is now standing on the sidelines in Chicago while their defense has been far from stellar, even when they were racking up W’s.  Last year Fresno escaped with  a narrow three-point win at home while this year’s game is in Idaho’s gymnasium.  Last year’s game was not as close on the stat sheet due to several Bulldog turnovers keeping the score close.  This year Fresno will likely Fresno should win by at least a field goal

Texas AM ML -185:
In what could be the most exciting and entertaining game of the day, Texas A&M will take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a likely shootout.  Both offenses have been hard to stop as both teams are averaging over 40 points per game.  Oklahoma State may have a slightly more explosive offense but Texas A&M is more balanced on offense and their defense is superior to Oklahoma State’s. In the last couple of years Oklahoma St has blown out lesser teams but has lost several high scoring games to good teams.  Texas A&M ‘s defense should be able to stop Oklahoma State’s offense more times than the Cowboys defense forces A&M to punt.  Given Oklahoma State’s ability to score quickly, I recommend yielding some profit for the security of the Money Line as I am far more confident in A&M winning straight up in front of their home crowd than their ability to cover.

Utah State -10.5:
After giving Oklahoma a scare last season, Utah State nearly ended Auburn’s long winning streak on opening day as they outplayed the Tigers most of the game, only to lose because they failed to cover an onside kick.  Utah State followed up their fine offensive performance against Auburn with 54 points against a respectable Weber State team. Utah State now plays host off a bye to a Colorado State team that lost their defensive star and is coming off their in-state rivalry game which they lost to the Buffs.  CSU’s offense has been sluggish as they only scored 14 points in both of their games against FBS opponents.  Utah State will most probably put up 31 to 45 points which should be enough to cover against a Rams offense that will be exceeding expectations if they can manage more than 21 points on the road. The line on this game has been rising all week, but come Saturday, even the latest line will look like good value.

Successful sports trading is built on a foundation of statistical probabilities, but subjective artistry which includes have an understanding and an eye for the game is also an important part of successful trading.

Statistical probabilities should be your primary compass, but your subjective map can guide you to greater profits at times.  However, forgetting your compass can lead you into difficult situations as well.

Explaining to others when it is advisable to walk down the trail of subjectiveness can be difficult.  Tonight offered a pretty easy example of when to use your subjective eye (which can be supported by stats).

Tonight I recommended taking the LSU Tigers with the money line which never trailed.  However, if you took the Tigers -3.5, you were behind the entire game until the fourth quarter.  While the money line looked relatively safe, the point spread was a play away from defeat until the last three minutes of the game.

Many LSU backers were likely tempted to preserve a descent profit when the Tigers finally took a 6.5 point ATS lead.  While this is often advisable late in the game, tonight warranted a subjective exception.

Even though a single, successful Mississippi St drive could have wiped away the LSU ATS lead, the Tiger defense was so dominant tonight, it was essentially a low probability event.

In Miss State’s 4th through 10th drives, they ran 22 plays for only 29 yards.  The Tiger defense was consistently playing on their opponent’s side of the line of scrimmage as demonstrated by their 16 tackles for losses.

You must differentiate from an offense that has walked up and down the field and one that has struggled  to move the ball all night.  If you have a narrow lead late in the game when your defense has given up 27 points, you should green up.  If your defense played like LSU did tonight, you can hang with them longer.

You also need to evaluate how teams are progressing through the game.  Mississippi St was able to gain some hard-earned yards in their 2nd and 3rd drives, but it was clear LSU had adjusted to the quarterback draw Miss St was succeeding with earlier and they were unable to move the ball after that third drive. (Good teams adjust and shut down what may have worked early)

There are several ways to green up.  One can do it based on the score/time; one can have a trailing stop (If you have a binary value of say 85, then green up if it falls below 75 or 65 or whatever number you feel comfortable with based on how conservative you are); or one can use field position as their guide.

Tonight I felt the best way to play the LSU lead was to stay with their dominating defense until Mississippi State could cross midfield.  (Of course once they took a lead greater than seven ATS, you could just stick with them as long as they held that margin for error.)  You can set the field position wherever you wish, but it is best to use stats/probabilities.  Also keep in mind if you set it too close to their own goal line, once everyone starts heading for the door, it will be a challenge to get out with fair value.

One other point from tonight’s game, I had mentioned Mississippi State is improved but they are still learning how to win close games.  Tonight was no exception.  In the middle of the third quarter, the Bulldogs had taken the game’s momentum.  But with 4:34 left in the 3rd, they had LSU in a 3rd and 7 at their own 30, but they were flagged for a personal foul for an unnecessary hit on a receiver.  LSU then marched down the field for a field goal and followed that up with a touchdown on their next drive giving them a 10 point lead that their defense would not yield.

An exciting Thursday night matchup tonight as LSU (-3.5) visits a much improved Mississippi State squad that they defated last year by a29 to 7 margin.

Although Mississippi St has the home field edge, they are playing on a short week coming off a heartbreaking loss to Auburn where they were stopped inches short of a game-tying touchdown on the last play of the game.  The Bulldogs outplayed the Auburn Tigers on the stat sheet logging 31 first downs to Auburn’s 21 while stacking up 531 yards of offense including 333 on the ground while yielding 381 yards.

LSU is well rested coming off what basically amounted to a scrimmage against NW State.  The Tigers looked like national title contenders against Oregon as they were impressive on both side of the ball.  Oregon has a better offense than MSU, and the Tigers kept the Duck ‘O’ in check for most of the game.

Although Mississippi State can score points, the Tiger defense they are playing this week is far superior to the Tiger defense they faced last week.  It will be hard for MSU to run for 150 yards against the speedy LSU defense who will likely focus on stuffing the Bulldog rushing game.

If there is one thing to take from MSU’s loss last week,it is that they are team that is still learning how to win games when they are the better team.  That does not bode well playing a better team that has a penchant for pulling out victories in tough battles.

Look for the Tigers to win this game, but laying 3.5 points to a potent MSU team is a bit worrisome.  I recommend taking the LSU Tigers on the Money line -165.