A Bettor World

Sides:
New Orleans Saints -7

Totals:
New Orleans/Minnesota OVER 51.5
Tennessee/Indianapolis Under 41.5
Cincinnati/St louis Under 39
Detroit/Oakland OVER 47.5
Cleveland/Arizona Undr 37.5

Teams for Teasers:
New Orleans -1
Tennessee -’
Cincinnati -’
Arizona -’
New England -3

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
So Miss -10
Mississippi State -10

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Bowling Green -3.5
UAB +5.5
Iowa -15.5
Michigan State +4
Texas Tech -14.5
Hawaii -7
Oklahoma State -14.5
Stanford -7.5

Mississippi State -10:
Mississippi State only beat the Wildcats by 7 points at home last year and now must lay ten points on the road.

Although the Bulldogs have a losing record, they were competitive in all four losses to the likes of Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. Kentucky, on the other hand, has been anything but competitive in their conference games as they have lost their last three SEC games 137 to 20.

These two teams have two common opponents.  Mississippi St lost to LSU in a hard fought 19-6 game while the Tigers easily beat Kentucky 35-7.  Last week, the Bulldogs lost to South Carolina 14 to 12 while the Gamecocks thumped Kentucky 54-3.

Miss St has a huge edge on defense and has only allowed 17 points in their last 2 games while Kentucky has only scored 10 points in last two FBS games.

Kentucky will have trouble putting up points against the Bulldogs while Mississippi State should be able to move the ball well enough on the ground to score a few touchdowns.  The Bulldogs likely need this game to become bowl eligible, so they will likely come in focused and well-prepared off their bye.

So Miss -10:
Southern Miss is coming off a 27-3 win over an SMU team that had scored 38+ points in their previous four games.  UTEP played SMU earlier in the season with an opposite result, losing 28-17.

UTEP has won six straight ATS while Southern Miss has won and covered every game since their shockingly poor start in the season’s first two weeks.

Hidden in the Miners ATS success is the 101 points they gave up in the two weeks prior to their past two games against poor offensive teams.

Southern Miss clearly has the better offense and also has a superior defense.  The Eagles have scored 48+ points three times and is fully capable of putting up many more points than the public is anticipating here as they have averaged over 550 yards of offense the past few weeks.

UAB +5.5:
UAB is coming in this week fresh off their first win, a 26-24 victory over a UCF team that beat Marshall two weeks prior 16-6.

UAB continues to improve, winning their last 5 games ATS.  Last week, both teams had excellent offensive outputs, but the Blazers did so against a tough Central Florida defense.

This matchup should be a closely fought contest, so UAB should benefit from receiving points.  Marshall has not won any games by a touchdown or greater as their three wins were only by margins of 4, 4, and 6 points, including a 4 point win over Rice in their last home game.

Iowa -15.5:
Iowa lost to Minnesota last year 27-24, but Minnesota has greatly regressed, losing their three Big 10 games by 58, 28, and 27 points.

Iowa has scored more than 40 points four times including their last two games where they have scored 86 points.  Last week against Indiana, Iowa scored touchdowns on all five of their first half drives and added a field goal on their only third quarter possession.

Look for the Hawkeyes to repeat their offensive performance against a poor Gopher defense.  Minnesota simply cannot score enough points to keep pace with the Hawkeyes.  Last season’s loss likely prevents Iowa from losing focus and adds incentive to keep tacking on points until the game is well in-hand.

Michigan State +4:
Michigan State is coming off a miraculous 37-31 home win over a Wisconsin team that earlier had destroyed Nebraska 48-17 in Madison.

Michigan State’s win over the Badgers last week likely does notpunch their ticket to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game unless the Huskers lose another conference game. The Spartans should thus not have a letdown coming off three straight big games as they will want to hand that loss to Nebraska themselves.

Prior to the Badgers, Michigan State had only allowed four total touchdowns in their previous three games. Nebraska has a very good run game, but Michigan State is more than capable of limiting the Huskers ground game.  NU quarterback Martinez is fairly effective throwing when he has the defense off-balance, but he can be a train wreck passing in third and long situations.

Michigan State’s offense has been far from stellar running the ball, but Nebraska’s defense is not playing up to expectations and is now without A-A defensive lineman Crick.  Teams have had success running straight at Nebraska and then burning the aggressive Husker safeties on play action, just the kind of game the Spartans likely wish to play.

Nebraska has only been able to cover the spread against two teams they could simply over-power with their run game (Wyoming and Minnesota.)  Nebraska will be forced to pass more than they like this week and will likely fail to cover for the sixth time this year.

Bowling Green -3.5:
Bowling Green is coming off consecutive home games against the top teams in the MAC.  The Falcons suffered a narrow 7-point loss to Toledo and an upset Temple last week.

Prior to last week’s bye, Kent lost 9-3 to a Miami, OH team that Bowling Green defeated 37-23.

Bowling Green’s greatest weakness is their run defense, but they were able to beat a strong running Temple team last week.  Kent simply is not a good running team and likely will not be able to fully exploit this weakness in the Falcons D.

Kent’s offense is struggling as they only average 7 points a game against FBS schools, including just 3 points in their last game.  If Kent cannot run the ball, they will likely have trouble scoring against a Bowling Green defense that held Temple to 10 points last week and Toledo to 0 first half points two weeks ago.

Bowling Green’s offense is not finding the end zone often, as they have averaged less than 17 points in their last four games.  However, two touchdowns may be enough to cover, just as Miami OH did against the tough Kent D, winning 9 to 3 two weeks ago on the road as 3.5 point favorites.  If the Redhawks can cover here as 3.5 point favorites, a better Falcon team should cover as well.

Texas Tech -14.5:
Coming off a huge upset win against Oklahoma and a big match against Texas next on the docket, this week’s game against Iowa State could be a poor situational matchup for Tech.  However, the Red Raiders likely will not forget their 52-38 lost to the Cyclones last season, so they should be focused

Iowa State lost big on the stat sheet again last week against Texas A&M, but only managed to lose by 33-17, providing some value this week.  Tech also lost to the Aggies 45 to 40, but they were much more impressive offensively in their loss.

Texas Tech scored at least 34 points in every game  and are now going against a Cyclone defense that is allowing over six touchdowns a game in Big 12 play.

Iowa State only scored 17 points in each of their last two games and is only averaging 18.5 points in Big 12 play.  They likely won’t be able to keep pace with the Texas Tech team that should easily score at least 5 to 7 touchdowns.

Hawaii -7:
Hawaii beat Idaho on the island last year 45-10, but this year it is Hawaii having to make the long and difficult journey.

Although travelling to Idaho is not an easy trip for Hawaii, Idaho has lost home games to Bowling Green by 17; Fresno by 24; and La Tech by 13; all teams I rank below Hawaii and two of which had fairly long road trips
themselves..

Both teams previous game was against New Mexico State.  The Warriors won their match against the Aggies 45-34 while the Vandals lost to them by a score of 31-24.  In Idaho’s previous game, they lost to La Tech 24-11, a team Hawaii previously defeated44-26.

Hawaii’s offense is playing well and should be able to put up several scores on the weak Vandal secondary. Idaho, on the other hand has not scored more than 24 points against any FBS team this season nor have they beaten an FBS team.  Unless Hawaii repeats the turnover performance they had at San Jose, they should easily cover the touchdown spread.

Oklahoma State -14.5:
Oklahoma beat Baylor last year by a score of 55 to 28, which ironically matches the score of Baylor’s last game, which they lost against a Texas AM squad that Oklahoma State had earlier defeated 30-29.

Oklahoma State is rolling offensively as the only teams they have not beaten by more than 2 touchdowns are Texas and Texas AM.

While Baylor can put up points, their defense will have trouble forcing Oklahoma State to punt.  Look for the Cowboys to top 50 for the fourth time this year and win by at least two touchdowns.

Stanford -7.5:
Stanford won a close 37-35 game against USC last year, but the closest game Stanford has been involved in this year was a 37-10 win over an Arizona squad USC  only beat by a touchdown (48-41.)

On offense, Stanford not only has one of the best college quarterbacks to come along in several years, they can also run the ball effectively as they demonstrated last week.  While most of the focus has been on the Cardinal offense, the defense is no slouch as they have held 5 of their 7 opponents to 14 or fewer points.

USC has a good run defense, but they have allowed more than 40 points twice as their pass defense is below average.  Don’t be surprised if Stanford becomes the third team this year to top 40 points on the Trojan defense as Luck shreds their secondary.

A bewildering decision by Toledo accommodated Boise State’s journey through the front door tonight.

With 4:36 remaining in the game, Toledo (+20.5) scored what appeared to be a back door cover, trimming Boise’s lead to 33-15.

If the Rockets beleived they had a chance to remain in the game, they should have attempted a two point conversion to make it a two possession game.  Instead, they conceded the game by attempting an extra point kick which they missed (it  was the FOURTH missed extra point in the game!)

Even though Toledo capitulated on the extra point, they made a perplexing move by attempting an onside kick rather than kicking deep and letting Boise State run out the clock.  This set up Boise 43 yards from the front door cover with over four minutes left.  Boise gladly accepted the invitation to score the front door touchdown.

In college football, back door covers are much more common than front door covers because the leading team will let up, play vanilla defense, and bring in the subs while the losing team will aggressively pass the ball down the field trying to make the score more respectable.  This is why it is important to green up when the outcome is no longer in doubt yet the leading team has no margin for error (leads by 7 or less to the point spread) if their is ample time for the trailing team to score garbage points.  Tonight was a good example if you were backing Boise State while Toledo aggressively moved for their temporary cover.

Front door covers happen less often because the offense typically will just run simple plays up the middle trying to run out the clock.  When they do occur, they more than likely are the result of a defensive touchdown because most coaches do not favor running up the score because they know what comes around, goes around.  Some coaches will even take a knee if they can not run out the clock rather than running up the score if they are in the shadows of the goal posts.  This is also why you won’t see teams with big leads kicking field goals on fourth down.

Boise State is in a different situation.  They are a team wanting to play in a BCS Bowl or even play in a National Championship, yet they do not have a BCS-calliber schedule.  It is thus important for them to cover, because that is essentially a measuring stick for their weekly performance against lesser teams.  Thus Boise State ran more aggressive running plays in the hopes of making creating a more impressive outcome for the computers.  Thus it is not surprising that Boise State has such a good record as away favorites, 14-5 the past five years.

Successful sports trading is built on a foundation of statistical probabilities, but subjective artistry which includes have an understanding and an eye for the game is also an important part of successful trading.

Statistical probabilities should be your primary compass, but your subjective map can guide you to greater profits at times.  However, forgetting your compass can lead you into difficult situations as well.

Explaining to others when it is advisable to walk down the trail of subjectiveness can be difficult.  Tonight offered a pretty easy example of when to use your subjective eye (which can be supported by stats).

Tonight I recommended taking the LSU Tigers with the money line which never trailed.  However, if you took the Tigers -3.5, you were behind the entire game until the fourth quarter.  While the money line looked relatively safe, the point spread was a play away from defeat until the last three minutes of the game.

Many LSU backers were likely tempted to preserve a descent profit when the Tigers finally took a 6.5 point ATS lead.  While this is often advisable late in the game, tonight warranted a subjective exception.

Even though a single, successful Mississippi St drive could have wiped away the LSU ATS lead, the Tiger defense was so dominant tonight, it was essentially a low probability event.

In Miss State’s 4th through 10th drives, they ran 22 plays for only 29 yards.  The Tiger defense was consistently playing on their opponent’s side of the line of scrimmage as demonstrated by their 16 tackles for losses.

You must differentiate from an offense that has walked up and down the field and one that has struggled  to move the ball all night.  If you have a narrow lead late in the game when your defense has given up 27 points, you should green up.  If your defense played like LSU did tonight, you can hang with them longer.

You also need to evaluate how teams are progressing through the game.  Mississippi St was able to gain some hard-earned yards in their 2nd and 3rd drives, but it was clear LSU had adjusted to the quarterback draw Miss St was succeeding with earlier and they were unable to move the ball after that third drive. (Good teams adjust and shut down what may have worked early)

There are several ways to green up.  One can do it based on the score/time; one can have a trailing stop (If you have a binary value of say 85, then green up if it falls below 75 or 65 or whatever number you feel comfortable with based on how conservative you are); or one can use field position as their guide.

Tonight I felt the best way to play the LSU lead was to stay with their dominating defense until Mississippi State could cross midfield.  (Of course once they took a lead greater than seven ATS, you could just stick with them as long as they held that margin for error.)  You can set the field position wherever you wish, but it is best to use stats/probabilities.  Also keep in mind if you set it too close to their own goal line, once everyone starts heading for the door, it will be a challenge to get out with fair value.

One other point from tonight’s game, I had mentioned Mississippi State is improved but they are still learning how to win close games.  Tonight was no exception.  In the middle of the third quarter, the Bulldogs had taken the game’s momentum.  But with 4:34 left in the 3rd, they had LSU in a 3rd and 7 at their own 30, but they were flagged for a personal foul for an unnecessary hit on a receiver.  LSU then marched down the field for a field goal and followed that up with a touchdown on their next drive giving them a 10 point lead that their defense would not yield.

After yielding an early field goal drive, Alabama’s defense dominated Penn State for the remainder of the game.

Despite Alabama having complete control of the game, it was worth taking a small stake in a long odds trade on Penn State each time they took control of the ball from late in the third quarter through Penn State’s onside kick attempt (with the exception of when they trailed 27-3).

Even though Alabama only led by 7.5 points to the spread from late in the 3rd quarter through well into the fourth quarter, a small stake in the 95 to 98 range (1.02 to 1.05) was worthwhile even though they did not work out.  If Penn State failed to move into scoring range, you could sell out for next to nothing.  However, if they had any big play for a score, Alabama’s value would have fallen to at least the low 80′s (1.20s).  The risk-reward certainly makes this a good trade as Alabama was priced in for a sure ATS win too soon and Alabama could have let up with a big “straight up” lead. (Penn State drove the ball into Penn State territory 3 times after Alabama took a 20-3 lead.  One drive was stopped by a turnover.)

The most profitable entries were early in the game on Alabama, though.  Their first two possessions could be purchased fairly cheap.  Alabama took control of the game’s  momentum on a fake punt, at which time Alabama could be backed with good value.  With Alabama set to receive the second half kickoff and their defense controlling the game, it was worthwhile taking Alabama before the half as long as you held a stop-loss in case things did not work out.)

Another exciting college game tonight with Arizona State beating Missouri in an overtime period that may have been prevented if they would not have missed an extra point.

We recommended trading the first game tonight with a positive bias on Florida International and suggested a neutral trading strategy in the second believing Missouri could hold Arizona State within the 9.5 point spread.  Both of these strategies should have worked out well for you.

Tonight provided a good example of when NOT to bookend halftime (have chance for team to have a two possessions to none.)  Although it would have worked out for a nice profit, it defied the probability of success (thanks to a few Arizona St penalties.)

When Missouri took possession of the ball with 1:20 left in the second quarter along with the upcoming second half kickoff, they were not in a positive value situation since they were taking over at their own nine-yard line while Arizona State had three timeouts.

Statistically, when the offense takes possession of the ball inside their own ten, the defensive team is more likely to score next.  Furthermore, typically in this situation, the offense will try to run the clock and the ball trying to garner a first half to escape to halftime while the defensive team will take their timeouts hoping for good field position for a field goal or better.

Furthermore, Missouri is a methodical offense that is not well suited for moving the ball down the field in a minute, so they are not the best type of team for a 2-0 bookend.  Vertical passing teams work best.

Both games today appear to have tight lines with little pregame value, though Florida International is a bit tempting.

Arizona State has enough talent to compete for the south division title in the PAC 12 while Missouri looks to be less potent on offense as they are  breaking in a new quarterback. Missouri does have enough talent on defense to keep the game close.  This looks like a 7 to 10 point win for Arizona State, so the 9.5 point line makes for a difficult play.   Trade with neutral, short-term strategies.  If Missouri can show an ability to move the ball early, then you can trade with a bias toward the Tigers.

Florida International is receiving 3.5 points to Louisville on the road.  FIU is better than their reputation and may be able to challenge Troy for the Sun Belt title.   Louisville is still in rebuilding mode with an inexperienced offense.  Trade with a bias toward FIU, but if Louisville shows an offense, change your trading to a neutral bias.

The  first game of the NFL season went down to the last play as NO was stopped on the one yard line on a final un-timed down.

This shows how difficult it is to cover the spread against a good team as Green Bay played about as well as a team could play offensively and still nearly lost versus the spread. If you took NO with a traditional bet and lost, don’t distress. If you continue to take good dogs, you will win out in the end.

It also demonstrates why I keep emphasizing the need to green up late in the game if you are a play away from defeat..

Tonight we recommended three entires.  NO if they had ball first (which did not occur); take the team that falls behind if they receive fair value; and, use an opportunity of a 2-0 possession to bookend halftime with these good offenses.

Green Bay looked incredibly impressive to start the game as they marched down the field to take a 7-0 lead. After NO fumbled away the ball on their second play, GB took advantage of the short field to jump out to a 14-0 lead which emotionally felt like the beginning of a blowout.

At this point, you could panic that your first entry was down or realize the game just started and NO was given a cheap entry point.

If you did not let your emotions scare you away and you got in after each early Green Bay score, you were already slightly ahead after NO cut the lead to 7.  After NO narrowed GBs lead to 21-17 on a punt return touchdown you could have greened up for small gain.  Normally you might have stayed with the Saints in this situation, but the way Green Bay was playing it made it advisable to take a small gain even though you could have made more exiting later.

Green Bay took another 11 point lead.  Although this felt like Green Bay had a commanding lead, NO was just 1 score away from taking an ATS lead!

New Orleans was provided a 2-0 possession opportunity with 2 minutes left.  This is always a great entry for a good offense.  (However, if you
were already on NO, you may not want to carry too much risk.)

Even though New Orleans came up empty on their last drive of the first half, they opened up the second half with field goal.  This put you up slightly from the 2:00 warning entry.  If you were still riding New Orleans from early in the game, you were ahead entering after GB’s second TD and you were about even from the first TD.

Normally you would probably want to stay on NO when they are moving the ball this well, but with GB moving the ball even better, you best green up for small gain.  Losses require future gains to get you back to even.  Remember, keep losses small, let winners run, and avoid winners from turning into losers.  Tonight it was clear that New Orleans was not going to slow down the Green Bay offense so don’t let green turn to red.

If you did not green up, you got burnt from a GB kickoff return for a TD. If you stayed with NO at this point,  you can either take your small loss and lick your wounds or risk a moderate loss by giving NO one more chance.

If you stuck with NO as they responded to Green Bays kickoff return, you were almost back to where you were the last time you were down by 3.5 ATS.  This shows time is starting to come into play. Get out.

More experienced traders who have done their research on late entry points could have played the volatility at the end of the game for good profits.  However, it is much harder to manage risk in late game trades.

The new kickoff rules are the talk of the preseason.  As most people are aware, NFL kickoffs are being moved tfrom the 30 to the 35 yard line in the hopes of reducing injuries. This will most certainly increase the amount of touchbacks resulting in longer drives needed to score.  This may slightly reduce the amount of overall scoring this season.

The other aspect of the new kickoff rules is the kicking team can only have a five yard run-up to the kickoff.  Thus, when kicks are returned, kick returners may have the ability to return the ball farther than last season.

Teams with strong-legged kickers will certainly have an advantage in field position.  How much of an advantage certain teams will have is hard to determine from the preseason, though.  Many kicks that were returned from deep in the end zone during preseason simply to enable the evaluation of  return teams will be touchbacks in the regular season.  Kickers will also make a better effort to force touchbacks than they did in the preseason.

The new kickoff rule will not be the first rule to impact scoring.  The NFL has seen six distinct scoring eras since 1970, five of which have been influenced by rule changes as seen in this graph and described below.

The first two scoring eras were seprated by new rules for the 1974 season. The goal posts were moved from the goal line to the end line. This made field goals more difficult and was likely a big factor in points per play declining.

There were a few other rule changes that began in 1974 that should have had a positive impact on total points per game. Sudden death overtime was introduced (ironically the first overtime game that season ended in a tie); possession on missed field goals were taken at the line of scrimmage or the 20-yard line, whichever is farther from the goal line; and, kickoffs were moved from the 40 to the 35-yard line.  These changes were not enough to offset the reduction in field goals, though.

The 1978 football season brought two rule changes that changed the game so much that using stats or ATS trends from previous seasons is not recommended.

The “Mel Blount Rule” which established the ”Illegal Contact” penalty for contacting receivers beyond 5 yards of the line of scrimmage is still hailed as the biggest rule change in opening the passing game since the NFL-AFL merger.

However, there was another rule change that year which also contributed greatly to the passing game and increasing scoring.  Pass blockers could for the first time legally use open hands and extended arms to block..  This provides quarterbacks with more
time to scan the field.

Scoring in the NFL trended upward for the next decade until a couple of rule changes reduced the number of plays per game, which contributed to less scoring.

In 1988, a lengthy 45-second play clock was introduced.  Then in 1990 the clock restarted on out of bounds plays expect in the last 2 minutes of the first half and the last five minutes of the game.

The NFL became more exciting after several new rules were added in 1994 to spice up the game.  The impact of these rules created what I consider the “modern statistical era.”

Two of these 1994 rules helped shorten the field.  Kickoffs were moved back from the 35 to the 30 yard line enabling the receiving team of kickoffs to start with better field position.  The second rule changed the line of scrimmage after a missed field goal to the spot of the missed field goal.  This not only shortened the field after missed kicks, it was hoped teams would “go for it” on fourth down. (although it has also lead to more punting).

The other significant 1994 rule was adding the 2-point conversion.  The scoring impact of this rule is not just that it potentially can add an extra conversion point and increase the potential of overtime, it also keeps teams in the game longer preventing teams in some games from running out the clock.

The Play Clock was also reduced from 45 seconds to 40 seconds in the previous 1993 season which added more plays to the game. These four  new rules contributed to the biggest changes in the game since 1978.

The last four seasons have seen a noticeable increase in scoring.  There is no single rule that caused this, though the league’s movement toward what some call “flag football” in recent years may have contributed.  The most likely cause, though, has been an increase in plays along with the continued upward climb of points per play (which may be partly due to continued rules that benefit offensive players and offensives being more efficient.)

Will the new kickoff rules start a downward trend in scoring? I guess we will have to wait and see. But without question, rule changes have likely been the most sinifianct cause of each NFL scoring trend in the last 40 years.

Knowing when it is time to hold on to a winning position and knowing when to run away like a scared rabbit is key to being a winning sports trader.

Our two selections today offered winning opportunities if one was smart enough to run away with their profits.

In today’s SMU-Texas A&M game, we proposed taking a half of a position on SMU AFTER A&M took a lead and put in a the second position after a second score.

SMU turned the ball over on their first two possessions providing the opportunity to jump in cheap like we were anticipating.  SMU then pulled their starting quarterback and played the way we were expecting, cutting the lead to 20-14which provided an excellent opportunity to green up.  SMU played sloppy the rest of the way while A&M played like a top 10 team giving them an easy cover.

The key to good trading is to keep piling up small and moderate wins while minimizing losses.  One of the keys to this is to not allow your wins to turn into losses but at the same time allowing your trades to run to the end for full profit when possible.

So how do you manage the fight or flight in trading?  One effective method is to simply put a trailing stop under your winners.  There are a number of ways to set a stop.  You an establish a number or percentage of profit you wish to preserve, you can set a spot on the field, for example get out if the opponent crosses the 50 or 40 yard line, or if you are up by more than 2 scores, you can stay in until the opponent either moves with one score or is threatening to move within one score. But in every instance do not allow a solid profit to turn into a loss.  You want to give your biggest gains a little room to pull back just don’t give up too much room.

Thus after SMU cut A&M’s lead to six points, you could have greened up nicely since you were able to enter your position cheap. It
also would be a worthy idea to stay in the position, but once A&M was marching for another touchdown, you should not have allowed yourself to move nto a loss.

The game between Marshall and West Virginia was ended early in the fourth quarter due to lightening, which cancels all positions.  However, there are lessons to be learned from this game.

In this game we suggested taking Marshall at the start of he game in the expectation that they could keep the game close in a low
scoring affair.  Marshall provided an excellent start returning a punt for a touchdown and a 7-0 lead. This put their binary value  at 67 (1.49).

However, it became evident West Virginia was able to move the ball quite easily while Marshall could only muster a total of six yards in
their next 3 drives.

There were several opportunities for Marshall backers to take a small green gain as can be seen on the graph.  During West Virginia’s second tourchdwn drive, Marshall put them in 3^rd and long four times.  The first three times offered a green window and each ime Marshall backers were probably kicking themselves for not taking it as West Virginia converted on 3^rd and 13, 20, and 16 only to score a touchdown on 3^rd and 9!

Marshall then started playing well and cut the lead to 20-13, raising their value to 92 (1.11).  This advantage was short lived as West Virginia returned the following kickoff for a touchdown.  West Virginia then added another score dopping West Virginia’s value down to 44 (2.27) as the game was called.  Frustratingly, your green numbers that you were absolutely assured of winning were wiped off the board, showing that even when you are all green, there still is no such thing as a sure thing.