A Bettor World

The Detroit Lions (+6.5) jumped out to a 14-0 lead over the Packers in impressive fashion, only to have a wet ball slip out of Mathew Stafford’s hand and be picked up for a Green Bay touchdown.  This allowed Green Bay go on a 24 to 3 run and walk away with a win and a half point cover.

At the start of the game, it looked like backing the Lions was good value getting  6.5 points and the ball against a beat up Packers team.

Detroit opened the game with an impressive drive resulting in seven points.

At this point, it looked like it was best just to take off the risk using Green Bay’s +200 odds.

Green Bay went on a good drive only to fumble the ball away on a sack.

Detroit took advantage of this mistake a turned it into a 14-0 lead.

Although the Packers could have been backed at this point +400, they were down 20.5 points ats, so anything short of a touchdown would not move the odds in their favor.

Green Bay had a good drive stall out resulting in afield goal and keeping Green Bay +400.

Detroit started another good drive that could have put them comfortably ahead if they could have capped it with another touchdown.  Unfortunately for Lions backers, the wet ball slipped out of Stafford’s hand and Green Bay returned it for seven points and suddenly a game dominated by Detroit was a four point game.

Detroit once again moved the ball well only to throw an interception/

At this point Green Bay was +200 with a chance to bookend the half.

Green Bay failed on the front half, but a Detroit penalty on the punt return compelled them to run out the half, enabling one t stay with the Packers.

Green bay started out the second half with a nice touchdown drive giving them a 17-14 lead.

At this point, it was best to green up even with the Lions at –130.

Green Bay’s defense played much better in the second half, allowing the Packers to cover with a 27-20 win.

This game was certainly an example why trading is better than straight betting.  Before the game started, it looked like the Lions +6.5 was good value and was worthwhile of a traditional bet from the start.  The Lions early effort justified such a position.

However, once the Packers took the momentum, trading allowed one not only to remove the risk of loss, but enabled a small win despite ultimately being wrong on the  handicapping.

A traditional Lions backers would be down 1 unit while  a trader would be up a half a unit, which is 1.5 units better than the traditional wager.

There was two big matchups between men from Chicago and Michigan tonight, one in the field of politics and the other on the gridiron. While Chicago won both of the straight up matchups, the men from Michigan came back to cover the spread.

After the Chicago Bears forced turnovers in three Detroit drives into the red zone, the Lions finally broke through the backdoor with 30 seconds remaining to cover the 6.5 point spread.

The Bears defense was dominant throughout the game while the Bears offense came out hot, scoring a touchdown on its first drive, but managed just six points the rest of the way.

Trading-wise, there were not any good entry points in the first half.  The Bears initially looked like they might run away with the game, making it ill-advised to take the Lions with the long odds.

However, after the Bears could not punch the ball into the end zone on their first drive of the second half, the back door was opened to the Lions.

As the second half proceeded with the Bears looking content to hold on to the straight up win with their defense, along with the penchant of the Lions ability to score points in the fourth quarter, there were multiple opportunities to back the Lions at long odds.

Two times in the fourth quarter, it looked like the Lions would enter the rear entry only to have the Bears stifle their attempt.  However, when the Bears stopped the Lions inside the five with just over two minutes remaining, it was apparent the Bears would just run the ball to make the Lions use their timeouts and then play soft coverage on defense knowing the Lions could not win without recovering an onside kick.

On the Lions last drive, it looked like the Bears would seal the win with a 15 yard sack that left the Lions in a 3rd and 19 situation.  However, the Lions took advantage of the soft coverage to gain a first down and then march into the end zone for a nail-biting backdoor cover with t30 seconds left in the game.

The San Francisco 49ers staked a claim on being the best team in the NFL by following up their victory over the Packers with a solid win over the Detroit Lions.

With the 49ers playing at home, the -6.5 line favored an early play on them.  Such a move paid off quickly as they marched down the field for an impressive touchdown drive.

A fumbled kickoff return following a Lions field goal kept the game close, but San Francisco appeared in control throughout the game.

However, the 49ers could not put the game or the spread to bed until late in the game.  This provided some conservative trading in the green, generally keeping the green numbers 2-1 in the 49ers favor, but trading a quick backing of the Lions with a third of the 49ers backing at odds of 2.5-to-3 to 1 and then trading them back toward the 49ers to slowly creep the green numbers on San Francisco higher, yet playing it safe in case the Lions somehow could manage to get back within the spread.

A more aggressive way to trade in the green would be to take Detroit 3 to 1 with all of the green  numbers and then trade all those numbers back onto the leader at better odds.  This strategy can often lead to some very big wins, but it also risks one play leaving you with nothing on what should be a winning day.

Both the Houston Texans (-2.5) and the New Orleans Saints (-10.5)both overcame early touchdown deficits to come back and cover, although they do so in very different fashion.

The Texans overcame Bengal leads of 7-0 and 10-7 to tie the game twice in the first half.  These deficits provided either an opportunity for early Bengals backers to take a small profit or enable an entry on the Texans from the long side.

Then with less than a minute to play in the first half, Texan defensive lineman JJ Watt snatched an Andy Dalton pass at the line of scrimmage and returned it for a touchdown that gave them a 17-01 lead.

In the second half, the Texans held the Bengals offense in check while the offense provided two additional touchdowns to put the game away.

In the evening game, the Lions (+10.5) jumped out to a touchdown lead on the game’s first possession.  This provided a great opportunity to enter the Saints with long odds even though they were 17.5 points behind the spread.

This trade started out well as the Saints marched down the field only to fumble the ball away.

Fortunately , the Saints defense stepped up and forced a punt to allow the Saints offense to tie the game.  At this point, one could have put some green on the screen or hope the Saints could go into the half tied and then take the lead in to start the third.

The Lions the took another seven point lead.  The Saints responded with another good drive only to have the Lions force a Dew Brees fumble.

Again the Saints defense steeped up to allow their offense to tie the game before the half.  it looked as if the Saints had tied the game only to the play correctly reversed by replay causing the Saints to settle for three points.

This put Saints backers in a tough spot.  Although they were starting the second half with the ball, they were still 14.5 points behind the spread.

The way the Saints were moving the ball, it would be best to see if hey let could take the lead.  With many teams, one would just want to keep their losses small, but with the Saints and Packers, it is a different story.

The Saint responded by scoring a touchdown on a their first five drives.  Given the Lions ability also move the ball, it was best to green up once the Saints took a ten point lead.

After the Lions cut the lead to three points, it provided an opportunity to take a small stake on the Saints at long odds.  The Saints once again took a ten point lead which again provided another chance to green up.

The Saints then intercepted a pass to allow the offense to finally cross the spread with a 17 point lead.  If one still had not greened up on the Saints, they may have had some worry as the Lions cut the lead again to cut the lead to ten.  At this point, most teams would have tried to just run clock and not cover, but not the Saints.  The Saints surprised the Lions by throwing deep to set up another spread covering touchdown.

The Lions still had plenty of time to cover, so one should at the very least removed their risk if they were still sitting with large red positions if the Lions covered.  Fortunately for those stacking green numbers on the Saints, New Orleans intercepted another pass to provide a chance to run out the clock, which Drew Brees did, kneeling out the clock rather than running up the score.

The New Orleans Saints (-8.5) offense continues to roll as they took a 17-0 lead on their way to a 31-17 point spread covering win.

Unfortunately, the Detroit Lions controlled the third quarter, cutting the Saints lead to 7, until New Orleans added a fourth quarter touchdown off of a missed field goal to cover.

The inability of the Saints to put the game away ATS  resulted in Saints backers to green up in the third quarter at a level likely much smaller than one was hoping for at the half..

While one could have greened up by backing the Lions at 80 (1.25, +400) at halftime.  However, the way New Orleans was moving the ball it was advisable to try to ride them to the finish.

As the Detroit defense stepped up to shut down the Saints in the third, one should have greened up no later than 60 (1.67, +150).  One of the golden rules of trading football is to never let a big winner turn into a loss.  A small win is always better than a loss.

The fourth quarter was highly volatile and money could have been won backing either team.  While this may have been the case tonight, entering high volatile situations late in the game can lock in a certain loss in one play.  When playing volatility late, play smaller as you will often not have the chance to minimize losses like one can early in the game.

Having the patience to wait for a good entry can be quite difficult, especially in a game like tonight when the TV announcers were building up the Detroit Lions like they were the ’85 Bears.

When the Chicago Bears (2011 version) took a 3 point lead with just over a minute until halftime, many persons may have been tempted to back the Lions with the long odds on their side.

This was not a good idea, though, because with the new kickoff rules the Lions would likely have to start from their own 20 yard line without much time to put together a successful drive.  More importantly, the Bears were set to receive the second half kickoff and were coming off of two consecutive scoring drives.

A better time to back the Lions was when Chicago had a 3rd down and 17 on their own 13 yard line on their opening drive of the second half.  Even though the price to back the Lions was higher (at parity), the Lions were now in a position to have a higher probability of scoring the next points.

The objective is not to receive the highest odds, it is to enter when you have the highest probability of your wager to increase in value.  If you take a team with high odds when they have a low probability of scoring next, those high odds will likely become higher.

Even though the Lions covered the spread, tonight was a good example of why it is important to have a trailing stop.  After the Lions topped the point spread, the Bears made two serious threats to beat the spread, including taking the ball to the 2 yard line on the final play of the game.  The hearts of Lions backers likely skipped a beat as Jay Cutler lulled Detroit to sleep, acting like he did not get the play off before time expired and then hit a wide open receiver who momentarily looked like he may score a backdoor cover.

On another note, the Bears final drive was quite puzzling.  As time ticked below 40 seconds without any timeouts remaining and trailing by 11 points, the Bears should have either attempted a field goal to cut the lead to 8 or throw the ball into the end zone.  Instead they dinked the ball three consecutive times in the middle of the field killing any attempt to score with enough time remaining to attempt an onside kick and score again.  Thus another lesson.  Do not assume professional millionaire coaches know how to manage the end of a football game better than you do sitting at home.

Detroit defensive lineman Ndamukong  Suh brought his comeback magic to the Husker’s sideline tonight as they scored 28 unanswered points to beat Ohio State by seven, creating a great middle between the 10.5 point spread and the money line.

The ex-Husker who was part of 20 and 24 point comebacks for the Lions in the past two weeks brought a vivid reminder as he stood on the Nebraska sideline that good teams can come back from large deficits.

Earlier today we mentioned how difficult it is to hit a middle.  That is certainly true on blowout winners.  Determining where to set the top of Oklahoma’s victory today is extremely difficult.  If you backed Oklahoma anywhere from -10.5 to -24.5 during the game, at what point do you take Texas to create the middle? At +30.5? At +34.5? At +37.5?  If you tried to middle Oklahoma at any of these points, you ended up turning a good winning position into a small loser.  IKf you are backing a blowout winner, do not get cute, just ride out the win.

The best middle opportunities are created when you have taken the dog at greater than a touchdown and they have the lead late in the game.  If the favored team is charging back, one can take the favorite on the money line if they have a very realistic chance of winning, hopefully without covering.

For most of the second half this was not the case in tonight’s Buckeye-Husker match.  It looked like Ohio State would not only easily cover, but win straight up.  There was no reason to risk a winning side bet with a middle even when Nebraska cut the Ohio State lead to 14.

However, when the Huskers cut the Buckeye lead to 27-20 with 1:44 remaining in the third quarter, Nebraska clearly had the momentum, Ohio State was without their starting quarterback, and the Ohio State defense was clearly starting to fatigue.  This was the time to shoot for a middle, because there was a very realistic chance they could come back to win and you could still back them on the long side of the odds.

From that point, the NU defense fed off the crowd, completely shutting down Ohio State and Nebraska scored touchdowns on two of their next three possessions for the middle.

The game also was a reminder why one should never back “certain winners” at 1.01.  Anyone who had backed Ohio State when they were winning the point spread by 31.5 points were certainly having to sweat out Nebraska’s final drive as they moved deep into Ohio State territory and were trying for first downs.  One could picture a missed tackle against a stacked defense leading to a potential cheap “front door” covering touchdown.