A Bettor World

For all of the talk about the Big East not deserving an automatic BCS bid, if Clemson is the best the ACC has to offer, then maybe the ire directed at the Big East should be focused on the ACC.  (The Big East and non-BCS conferences have actually played better in these big games than the ACC.)

For a bowl season that has seen several poor defensive efforts, Clemson topped them all with one of the most pathetic defensive efforts in a bowl game EVER.  (Ever, as in the entire history of college bowl games.)

Clemson’s performance would not be excusable if they were playing on short rest in October, let alone to be playing in a BCS Bowl with A MONTH TO PREPARE.  It is simply an embarrassment to Clemson’s coaching staff to have their team this ill-prepared to play.  It is even more embarrassing to see a conference champion quit in the second quarter of a bowl game.

If anyone questions that Clemson quit, watch the number of defenders running at 3/4 speed when Geno Smith ran the ball in for a touchdown from seven yards out when the score was just 28-20.  That was a clear signal to back West Virginia even if one had to give more than 3 to 1, especially with the Mountaineers set to receive the second half kickoff.

To be fair, maybe the defenders were exhausted, but if that was the case, Clemson would have been better off to have their second string defenders in the game than to have their starters trotting around the field.

While West Virginia deserves credit for coming well prepared and motivated to play, Clemson’s defensive effort certainly aided them.  It appears like the more money some of these college coaches make, the worse the defenses play.

College football is not like the NFL where receivers can run clean after five yards.  Defenses can molest receivers all over the field.  It is simply inexcusable for so many receivers to be running so wide open when defenders can knock them off their routes and destroy their timing.  Heck, even if you get beat in college football you can tackle the receiver 40 yards down field before the ball arrives and only be penalized fifteen yards!

The Clemson coaching staff should donate every penny they made in the past month “preparing” for this game to the World Wildlife Federation’s ‘Adopt a Tiger’ program at: http://www.worldwildlife.org/gift-center/gifts/Species-Adoptions/Tiger.aspx?gid=33   It is the least they can do for insulting the prowess of the last few thousand remaining tigers in the wild.

I hope this game puts to rest why Alabama and LSU are playing a rematch for the national title game, they can play defense.  There are 105 teams that have given up more points per game than LSU and Alabama yield per game, COMBINED!

There are probably over 100 overpaid defensive coordinators that should be skipping their summer vacations and spending time earning their pay by watching film of LSU, Alabama and NFL teams to learn how to play defense.  Alabama and LSU may have slightly faster players on their defenses, but they are not that much faster.  It is just as much defensive coaching, desire and effort (and harassing receivers to not allow them to run clear) as it is athleticism.

Heck, if you can’t stop a team, drop 8 into coverage, beat up the wideouts, and make them work the ball up the field. You may yield yards, but you won’t be giving up 70 points!!!  Watch how the pros play cover 2 on third and long.  With bump and run defense, you should be able to keep everything in front of you and come up and make a tackle.  (It is amazing how many teams have converted on third and long this bowl season!)

While I love college football, I am not the only one concerned about so many of the games turning into arena ball.  While few people enjoy 3-0 games, people love the NFL because not only are points earned, first downs are earned.  It makes the game exciting.  Arena ball becomes monotonous after a while when teams can slip one tackler then run free for touchdown after touchdown.

This is also why Oklahoma State fans need to give it a rest that they should be playing in New Orleans next Monday.  The Cowboys would be lucky to be 17 point dogs.  If Stanford could walk up and down the field and put up 38 points on you, so could Alabama and LSU, only you would not be putting up a 3-handle on offense against those defenses.   Teams that lose to Iowa State don’t deserve to be in the conversation anyhow.

I will say, a bad blowout is still better than no football at all, which is what we unfortunately have tomorrow.  At least the next game between Arkansas and Kansas State will likely be a good, defensive fought, 45 to 35 game. (not exactly the 1966 Michigan State-Notre Dame game, but at least its football.)

Top NCAA Selections:
Nevada +1.5
UAB -5
North Carolina State -11.5

Other NCAA Selections:
Western Michigan -27
Houston -3
Arkansas +12
Michigan -7
Tennessee -7
Alabama -21
UL-Lafayette +14

NFL Sides:
Houston -3.5
Chicago +4
New England  -3

NFL Totals:
Cleveland/Cincinnati Under 37.5
Houston/Jacksonville Under 37.5
Washington/Seattle Under 37.5

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
So Miss -9
Wisconsin -27
Alabama -18

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Arkansas -14.5
Ohio State -7.5
Illinois pick ‘em
Wyoming +16.5
Stanford -3 (buy ‘ if needed)
UAB -5
Notre Dame -20.5
Colorado +10

So Miss -9: 
UCF is a poor road team that has been over-valued in Vegas all season while So Miss is a good home team that has been under-rated in the betting world.

So Miss is on a roll having won and covered seven straight games (six against FBS) while UCF has not covered in six of their last seven games, with their only ATS win coming against lowly Memphis.

Central Florida is 0-4 on the road including losses to UAB and Florida International.  So Miss is 4-0 at home including a 27-3 win over SMU in their last home game.

So Miss should be highly focused here as their final two games are against CUSA bottom-dwellers UAB and Memphis.  So Miss has excellent balance with both a strong running and passing game that has been piling up points along with their opportunistic defense and special teams.

UCF has no impressive wins, no road wins, and no chance at a bowl games if they lose here.  Keep soaring with the So Miss Eagles.

Wisconsin -27:
Minnesota has provided promise for the future in the past two weeks upsetting  Iowa and scaring Michigan State.  However, in their last game against a power rushing team, the Gophers were grounded by the Huskers in a 41-14 game where Nebraska let off the gas.

Wisconsin likely won’t be as kind as Nebraska as the Badgers have a reputation of running up the score, as demonstrated in the 62-17 win last week over Purdue.

Wisconsin should be able to run at will as they are averaging 5.7 ypc while Minnesota is yielding 5.1 ypc.  Thanks to their strong run game, Wisconsin statistically throws the ball even better than they run as they are averaging an incredible 10.6 yards per attempt.

Wisconsin has scored 48 or more points six times this year and should top this total once again.

Alabama -18:
Alabama knows that to have any chance of playing in the national title game they must not just win the rest of their games, they must completely dominate their opponents.  Add to that their struggles with field goal attempts last week, expect the Tide to ram the ball into the end zone.

Miss St was only able to score 6 against LSU earlier in the year and will likely not top that total this week as they have only scored a total of 10 points in their last three games against the Tide.

Alabama is only allowing 2 yards per carry and just 4.5 yards per passing attempt.  The Tide have only allowed a total of 22 points in their last four games and just 64 points in their nine games.

Mississippi State also has a good defense, allowing less than nineteen points per game, but Alabama has scored nearly 36 points per game behind a strong run game that wears out opponents.  In the six games prior to LSU, Alabama had scored between 34 and 52 points in each game.

Alabama should be able to wear out the strong Bulldog defense and cover the spread.

Arkansas -14.5:
Arkansas is quietly having an excellent season as their only loss has come against Alabama.  The Razorback offense is rolling, scoring between 29 and 44 points in each of their last five games.  For the season they are averaging over 450 yards per game thanks to their impressive 8.3 yards per passing attempt.  They are also the only team to score two touchdowns on the Tide defense.

Conversely, Tennessee’s offense has been struggling mightily.  In Tennessee’s last four SEC games, they have only scored 12, 7, 6, and 3 points.  In their last three games, Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 250 yards per game, with only 82 yards on the ground.

While Arkansas has a high octane offense, they have had some problems stopping the run at times.  However, with Tennessee running for just 2.6 yards per carry, the Volunteers won’t be able to exploit this which should allow the Razorbacks offense to spend plenty of time on the field.

While Arkansas was a better play earlier in the week, Arkansas should win by three or more touchdowns which provides good value even with this larger point spread.

Ohio State -7.5:
Ohio State is greatly improved since their loss to Michigan State as they have won their last three which includes wins over Illinois and Wisconsin.  Their last loss was against Nebraska where they blew a three touchdown lead after losing their quarterback.

Purdue has lost their last two games by a combined score of 98-31.   While the Boilermakers should perform better defensively this week, they will struggle against Ohio State’s tough defense, which should shut down their offense.

Ohio State has a poor passing game, but rb Herron is providing the Buckeyes offense a spark without having to pass the ball.  Purdue’s run defense has been poor as of late which should allow Ohio State to control the ball and win the field position battle.

Purdue has given up an average of over 37 points and 500 yards in their last three including 275 yards on the ground, the same number Ohio State has produced rushing the ball in their past three games.

Ohio State is not the same team they were in September which provides them value here against a Boilermaker defense that is struggling as of late.

Illinois pick ‘em:
Both teams started off strong but have struggled recently.  Michigan started 7-0 but they have lost 2 of their last three.  Illinois jumped out to a 6-0 start, including three narrow 3-point wins, but they have now  dropped their last three games.

Last year these two teams combined for 132 points in Illinois’ win in three overtime periods.  This year could be 180 degree difference

Illinois’ offense is regressing,  but their defense is playing very well and should be able to shut down Wolverine running game.

Michigan struggles when they cannot run and Illinois is only allowing 103 rushing yards per game and only 2.7 ypc.  To make matters worse, Michigan has only rushed for 139 ypg and 3.2 ypc in their last three games.

Coming off a bye week, Illinois should be prepared to make Michigan one-dimensional and pull out a victory at home.

Wyoming +16.5:
Wyoming is playing respectable ball as they covered against TCU last week and upset San Diego State on the road a week prior, a team Air Force lost to by 14 points at home.

Air Force has bounced back from a three-game losing streak with a 42-0 win over New Mexico and a ten-point, come from behind win over Army last week.

Air Force should have their way on offense as they average 5.6 ypc and over 300 yards per game while Wyoming is allowing 5.2 ypc and 230 yards per game.

Although Air Force is capable of scoring five or more touchdowns in this game, Wyoming is averaging over 30 points per game in their last three and should be able to score enough to keep within the spread.  Wyoming’s  offense averaging over 400 yards per games while AF defenses is allowing over 400 yards per game including 7.3 yards per passing attempt which is Wyoming’s offensive strength.

The only FBS school Air Force has beaten by more than ten points is New Mexico.  Wyoming has a good chance of keeping this stat intact which will be more than sufficient to cover the 16.5 point spread.

Stanford -3 (buy the ‘ if needed):
Stanford has won an incredible 12 straight games against the spread and has only lost one time in the last two seasons.  This week Stanford faces the last team to beat them, the Oregon Ducks.

In last year’s matchup with Oregon, Stanford jumped out to a 21-3 lead.  However, the Ducks dominated from that point to win going away 52-31.

Oregon was clearly the faster and more explosive team last year, the natural surface should help minimize the Ducks speed and help Stanford exploit their power advantage.

Stanford has won and covered every game this season beating every team except USC by three or more touchdowns.  The Cardinal can both run and throw at a high level, as can the Ducks.  ‘

Stanford does have a better defense as they are only allowing 3 ypc and 324 yards per game while Oregon is allowing 384 yards per game.

While both teams are more than capable of prevailing, Stanford has many advantages including the home field advantage, playing surface, quarterback and defense.  Keep riding Stanford until they lose.

UAB -5:
This is certainly a hold-your-nose pick as both teams have very poor defenses yielding over 500 yards a game against FBS competition,

UAB is better suited to exploit a poor defense as they have averaged 360 yards of offense per game in their last three while Memphis has only garnered 218 yards per game.

Memphis is especially poor running the ball as they have only moved the ball 2.5 ypc.  Their one-dimensional attack should thus allow UAB to also have an advantage on defense,

Prior to being demolished by Marshall and Houston, UAB had covered five straight games while Memphis has only been able to cover against Tulane and MTSU.  Although Memphis has had a week off and have the home field, UAB has shown a greater ability to move the ball and should pull out a victory of a touchdown or more.

Notre Dame -20.5:
Maryland’s nationally televised Labor Day win over the short-handed Hurricanes etched the Terps into the public’s mind as being a good team.  However, Maryland has only covered once since then, that being their back-door cover over Georgia Tech after the Yellow Jackets dominated the game early and lost their focus allowing the Terps to come back.  Since then Maryland has lost their last four games straight up and against the spread.

Notre Dame has performed the opposite of Maryland.  Early struggles with turnovers led to an 0-2 start which branded them as underachievers.  However, since their poor start they have won all but one of their games.

The Irish defense is playing well, giving up 350 yards per game against good competition.  They should be to handle the Maryland offense which has only scored 15 points per game in their last three.

The Terps are also giving up 33 points per game in their last three and 450 yards per game for the season.  The Irish are averaging over 400 yards per game and should be able to top 500 yards here.

Against Navy and Air Force, teams with higher power ranking than Maryland, Notre Dame won by scores of 56-14 and 59-33.  Expect a similar score in this one.

Colorado +10:
Arizona and Colorado share a similar problems, they cannot win on the road and they have poor defenses that are allowing over 400 yards per game.

Both teams are also struggling to find the win column as Arizona has lost seven of eight, giving up at least 34 points in each loss.  Colorado has performed even worse losing seven straight SU and ATS allowing over 31 points in each game.

Colorado has seen the return of many of their more talented players.  They also impressed on their opening drive against USC last week and had a few other glimmers of hope for their offense.

Arizona’s good passing game should be able to stack up points against the Buffs poor secondary.

However, the  Wildcats are laying ten points on the road and have a shabby defense themselves.

Colorado has not had a pleasant welcome to the Pac 10, but they have certainly played better at home, with the exception of Oregon, which is certainly excusable.  In Boulder, they only lost to Cal by 3, Washington State by 4, and made a good effort against USC last week.

Expect the Buffs to provide another strong effort in their final home game and keep this one close.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
Nevada -11.5
Temple -14
Texas AM -20.5

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Missouri +7
Alabama -29.5
UL Lafayette  -3
North Carolina +10.5
Kansas State -10
Washington State -3
Navy -11.5
Western Michigan -12.5

Nevada -11.5:
Nevada is rolling as they have won their last two games by combined score of 86-7, albeit, against weak competition.  Fresno is coming off of a ten-point come from behind win over Utah State

These two teams have faced one common opponent.   Nevada lost to Boise by just 20 while the Broncos embarrassed Fresno, easily defeating them 57-7.

Although Nevada has to lay 10.5, Fresno has lost by 10 points or more to four teams, including Mississippi and Cal.

Nevada can move the ball running or throwing against Fresno and could top 500 yards on offense once again as Fresno have struggled stopping the run.  The Bulldogs won’t keep pace with Nevada’s high paced offense that has a history of winning big at home.  Run with the Wolfpack.

Temple -14:
Not even Alabama can top Temple’s defensive results on the scoreboard as the Owls have won their last two games by a combined 76-0!

In Temple’s five wins, they did not allow more than 7 points. They also only allowed Penn St 14 points.    They also are moving the ball well, especially on the ground, scoring at least 34 points in all five wins.

Bowling Green only lost to Toledo by 7 last week while Temple had their only poor performance vs. the Rockets, losing by 23 points a few weeks ago.

The Falcons are struggling to find wins, though, as they have lost their last three games and four of their last four.  Two weeks ago they lost by 24 to Western Michigan.  Although the final score against Toledo last week looks respectable, they gave up 28 second half points to Toledo.  Of Bowling Green’s three touchdowns last week, one was on late kickoff return to cover and another was a desperation pass into the end zone before the half.

Bowling Green’s rush defense is struggling while Temple has a strong rush game.  Last week, Toledo did not score in the first half as they attempted numerous short passes.  In the second half, the Rockets focused on the run and scored 28 points.

Expect Temple to learn from the Rockets and do what they do best, run from start to finish and put up yet another large victory.

Texas A&M -20.5:
Texas A&M is coming off a 55-28 win over a Baylor team that easily handled the Cyclones the prior week by 23 points.

I have recommended going against Iowa State 3 straight weeks and they have obliged losing by 23, 23, and 35 points, while giving up 1,010 yards in their last two

Texas A&M could score more than 50 points again this week while Iowa State has averaged less than 20 points in their last three games.

After blowing big leads to Oklahoma State and Arkansas in consecutive weeks, do not expect A&M to let off the hammer if they take a big lead while ISU does not have the offensive firepower of the Cowboys or the Razorbacks to come back.

Texas A&M has shown an ability to score against much better teams including 100 points in their last two games.  The Aggies should dominate running the ball much like Missouri did last week and win by a similar score.

Missouri +7:
Missouri has three close losses this season, but they were all on the road to ranked teams. (Arizona State by 7 in OT, Oklahoma by 10, and Kansas State by 7)

The Tigers are coming off of  52-17 win vs. Iowa State while Oklahoma State is undefeated and scoring 49 points per game, but largely to soft schedule.  Against good teams, the Cowboys had to come back to beat Texas A&M by 1 and last week they defeated Texas by 12 on the road.

Columbia, Missouri is not the easiest place to visit and Missouri has a strong run game that can keep OSU off the field.  While the public will likely focus on the offense, Missouri has  the better defense that should keep this one close.

Alabama -29.5:
Alabama is staking their claim as the best team in the land having won their last two games by a combined score of 86-7.

Alabama has only allowed 49 points for the entire year, including two2 shutouts and holding two other opponents to a single TD.

That success should continue this week as Tennessee only scored 19 points the last two weeks including a 38-7 loss to  a similar quality LSU team last week.

To make matters worse, the Volunteers cannot run the ball which will enable the Tide to pin their ears back and attack Tennessee qb Simms in just his second start.

These two teams have had one common opponent. Alabama beat Florida 38-10 while Tennessee lost to the Gators by 10 points.

Most of the media focus has deservedly been on the Alabama defense, but the Tide also has one of the strongest rushing games in the country.  They also do a great job protesting the ball on offense while forcing turnovers on defense. The Tide should put up at least five touchdowns while Tennessee will have a difficult time crossing midfield and will be lucky to see the end zone.

UL Lafayette  -3:
You often see teams that can win at home but lose game after game on the road. It is rare to see a team that is unbeaten on the road but has a long losing streak at home, but that is what you have with Western Kentucky who have lost their last 18 homes games and has not beaten an FBS school at home since moving up.

ULL has won six straight since their loss to Oklahoma State and have their eyes on the Sunbelt title.

WKU started the season off slowly, losing their first four games. They are playing well in October, though, having won their last two and only lost to Arkansas State by four.

WKU is coming off a 20-0 win on the road against a Florida Atlantic team that ULL only beat 37-34.

ULL, though, has scored at least 30 in their last five and even put 34 points on Oklahoma State while WKU has only scored more than 22 points
one time.

WKU has a good running game, but ULL should be able to load up to stop it.  ULL is playing for a conference title and won’t overlook Western Kentucky like they did last year. Look for ULL to top 30 points again which is not the type of game WKU can win.

North Carolina +10.5:
Clemson has won five games by more than this point spread including 12 point comeback win over Auburn, a 20 point win over Virginia Tech and an 11-point come from win over Maryland last week after training by 18 points.

North Carolina is not a team that gets blown out as its only losses are to Georgia Tech by 7 and Miami Fla by 6.

Clemson has yielded 24 or more points four times, but has scored

at least 35 in all but one game.  UNC has scored at least 24 in all but one game , so they should put up a three-handle this week.

The public’s focus is on Clemson’s large offensive edge, but North Carolina has the defensive edge that can take away Clemson’s running game and make Clemson ne-dimensional.

Clemson will score their points, but UNC should keep score enough to keep this one close.

Kansas State -10:
Kansas State is unbeaten both straight up and against the spread versus FBS opponents. More impressive, the Wildcats have pulled off an amazing four straight upset wins including back-to-back seven point wins over Missouri and Texas Tech.

Kansas has allowed at least 42 points in all their FBS games and has lost their last four games by 42, 14, 42, and 30 points.

These two teams have one common opponent. Kansas State beat Texas Tech by 7, while Kansas lost to them by 11.

While Kansas State is coming off of four big games in a row, they should remain focused against their in-state rival.  Kansas State is not an explosive scoring machine, but against Kansas, they should be able to score five or more touchdowns, which should be enough for their defense to cover the spread.

Washington State -3:
Washington St played Stanford close for one half last week and are greatly improved compared to recent seasons.

Oregon State is moving in the opposite direction, having won only once after winning 41 games in the previous five seasons.

The only common opponent these two teams share is UCLA who WSU lost to on the road by 3 and Ore St lost to by 8 at home

Washington State has a potent passing game that can score points while Oregon State cannot run the ball and they throw too many interceptions to keep pace in higher scoring games.  Expect the Cougars to pull out all the stops in this game as they need a win here to become bowl eligible as the schedule the rest of the way is difficult.

Navy -11.5:
Navy has three tough losses this season including a 3 point loss to South Carolina, and one point losses to  both Air Force (in overtime) and Rutgers.

Although East Carolina is coming off a win last week against a poor Memphis team, their only other win  was against winless UAB.

South Carolina played both these squads.  As mentioned, Navy only lost to them by 3 while East Carolina lost to them by 19 points.

East Carolina does not have a strong run defense which could spell trouble as Navy can string together long drives on the ground.  Navy does not have a strong pass defense, but East Carolina has been inconsistent throwing the ball.

The Pirates had no answer for Navy’s option last year as they gave up 76 points to the Midshipmen.  They likely won’t have an answer again this year as they will probably place more emphasis on their conference games.

Western Michigan -12:
Western Michigan had a poor second half last week.  After taking a halftime lead, they lost at Northern Illinois 51-22.

Eastern Michigan is having their best season on many years, but they have not yet beaten a quality team.

Two weeks ago Eastern was thumped by Toledo 54-16.  Despite their success, they have shown a weak pass defense that Western should be able to exploit.

Both teams played Michigan. The Wolverines shut down EMU 31-3 while Western played them tough before falling 34-10 in an abbreviated opening game.

Western beat Central Michigan by 30 while Eastern only beat them by 7 points, in what is the most impressive of their four victories.

Both teams have struggling defenses, but Western Michigan has the offense to expose Eastern Michigan’s weak pass defense while Eastern Michigan will focus on the ground game.  Western should be able to score at least two more touchdowns than Eastern Michigan.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Last Week: 7-3
Season: 36-25

Top Positive Value Selections:
Nevada -29.5
Toledo -8
Western Michigan -1.5

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Wyoming -10.5
Oklahoma -36
Washington -15.5
Northwestern +6.5
Missouri -15.5
Georgia -11
Alabama -27.5
Miami Oh -3.5
Georgia Tech -7
Temple -21

Nevada -29.5:
In their last four games, New Mexico has given up over 50 points and nearly 600 yards per game.  That includes games against Sam Houston State and New Mexico State who both put up over 500 yards of offense against the Lobos.

Now New Mexico has to go on the road to face a Nevada squad the won last week 37-0 over UNLV.  Nevada should have won that game by much more as they put up 699 yards of offense but turned the ball over 5 times.

New Mexico has not won outside the state of New Mexico since they beat San Diego State by 3 points in 2007.  While Nevada has to lay 29.5 points, in the last three years the Lobos have suffered road losses of 35, 31, 41, 72, 35, 33, and 49 points.

These teams have one common opponent in Texas Tech.  Nevada only lost to Tech by one point on theroad while New Mexico lost to them by 46 points at home.

If Nevada takes better care of the ball this week they should put 50 points and easily cover.

Toledo -8:
The line has moved above a touchdown in this game, but for very good reason: Toledo is a much better football team than Bowling Green.

Toledo beat Bowling Green 33 to 14 last season, and this year’s Rockets team is improved on both sides of the ball.

Toledo defeated a very good Temple team by 23 on road two weeks ago scoring 36 points against an Owl defense that has only allowed a total of 31 points in its other five games.  The Rockets followed that up with another impressive and balanced performance in a 54 to 16 win over Eastern Michigan.

Toledo has three losses, but that includes a near upset of Ohio State on the road, a loss to Boise State that was closer than the final score indicates and a tough overtime loss at Syracuse.

Bowling Green has been outscored 100 to 31 the last two weeks, as they gave up over 1,200 yards on defense. While those losses were to two very good offensive teams, Toledo’s offense is on par with Western Michigan’s and they should put up five or six touchdowns this week.  Bowling Green does have a decent passing game, but their one-dimensional approach will not allow them to keep pace with the Rockets.

Western Michigan -1.5:
Western Michigan has covered seven straight regulation games and yet remains undervalued and underappreciated by the public.

The Broncos have a fantastic passing attack and average 44.5 points scored in their two MAC games. Western Michigan’s offense appears to be improving every week as they have over 1,000 yards of offense in their last two games.

Northern Illinois also has a quality quarterback, but Western Michigan has a far better defense than the Huskies who have allowed 48 points to Central Michigan; 30 to Cal Poly; 49 to a kindly Wisconsin effort; 45 to lowly Kansas; and 26 to Army.  The Huskies only good defensive effort was last week against the struggling Kent State offense.

Western Michigan has also played more competitively against ranked opponents.  The Broncos gave the Illini a scare, only losing by 3 and they battled Michigan until two turnovers changed the game. Northern Illinois has only played one top notch team where they were easily beaten by Wisconsin, 49-7.

These teams have one common opponent in Central Michigan.  The Broncos soundly defeated the Chippewas 44-14 while Northern Illinois fell in defeat to the same squad by seven points.

Northern Illinois is somewhat overvalued due to the reputation they earned in prior years, but it is now the Broncos that have risen to be the top dog of the MAC.  We keep riding the Broncos.

Wyoming -10.5:
Wyoming does not rise to the top of teams one might wish to back after being clobbered 63 to 19 by Utah State last week. The Cowboys did start well taking a 12-0 lead before trailing by just 21-19, but Utah St scored 42 unanswered points to embarrass them.

Forget about backing the Cowboys, rather focus on laying UNLV.  The Rebels are a very poor road team having lost their last dozen away games by 37, 52, 34, 38, 34, 48, 33, 39, 23, 28, 28, and 41 points.

UNLV was shut out last week giving up nearly 700 yards of offense while only putting up 110 yards of offense including a 1 for 14 passing performance that totaled just 8 yards, less than a yard per attempt!.

Wyoming has a balanced offense that should move the ball both running and passing.  The Cowboys should manage at least four touchdowns which should be enough to cover against this poor road dog.

Oklahoma -36:
This was a better early week play as the line has risen over the five touchdown mark.  Yet, there is still value here as Kansas has given up more than 60 points and 600 yards a game in their last three matches.  Even if they can somehow hold Oklahoma to 52 points, it is difficult seeing Kansas putting up three touchdowns on the tough Sooner defense.

Oklahoma has one of the best passing attacks facing off against one of the worst passing defenses.  Just as the Oklahoma State squad did last week, the Sooners should be able to jump out to a huge early lead.  With the Sooners presently competing with Wisconsin and Stanford for the second slot in the national championship, they will not be inclined to allow Kansas to make the score look respectable.

Washington -15.5:
Another big line move that still offers value up to -17 as Washington has not lost against the spread to an FBS school since losing by a half point ATS to Oregon last year.  Since then, they have covered in 8 straight FBS games.

Washington is 4-1 on the season including a pair of 8-point wins over Hawaii and Cal which Colorado lost by 17 points and 3 points (in overtime), respectively.

Washington has scored at least 30 points in every game including 38 points against Nebraska in their only loss while Colorado has given up 31 or more points in five of their six games.  The Huskies should thus be able to score five touchdowns against a Colorado defense that has a beaten up secondary as the Huskies already have 17 touchdowns through the air.  The Huskies also have a strong running game with Polk running for over a 100 yards a game which should keep the Buffalo defense off balance.

Washington’s defense has not been stellar either, giving up 108 points in their first three games.  They have shown improvement, though, holding Cal and Utah to 23 and 14 points, respectively, in their last two games.

The biggest difference in this game is that the 1-5 Buffaloes have been a poor road team in recent years. They have lost all three of their road games this year by 17, 20, and 41 points with two of those losses to teams I have rated lower than Washington.  Colorado has lost 20 straight road games overall.  Washington is a noisy stadium that should provide enough of an advantage to cover.

Northwestern +6.5

Northwestern was looking like an easy cover last week as they had a  24-14 halftime lead as touchdown dogs.  However, they could not score in 2^nd half while allowing Michigan to score 28 straight points.

Northwestern can put up points on anyone, but their defense can certainly struggle at times as they have given up80 points in their last two games.

Fortunately Iowa’s offense is not nearly as impressive as the Illinois or Michigan squad the Wildcats had to face the past two weeks.  Iowa was only able to score 3 points last week against Penn State, they lost to Penn State and had to come back late to beat Pitt.

The most compelling reason to ride Northwestern is their track record against better Hawkeye teams in previous years.  The Wildcats have won the last three games against Iowa, all as underdogs.  They have also won in their last three trips to Iowa City.

Iowa may very well score four touchdowns this week, but Northwestern has their number and should match points with Iowa like they did with Illinois two weeks ago and as they did in the first half against Michigan.  Take the points.

Missouri -15.5:
Missouri comes in with a losing record at 2-3, but all their losses are to ranked teams.  Those losses provide value as the Tigers are not receiving the respect they deserve.

Missouri should be able to run the ball well against an Iowa State team that gave up nearly 400 yards rushing last week.  Overall, Baylor converted 37 first downs and had over 600 yards of offense against Iowa State last week and could have scored well more than 49 points if they had not turned the ball over in Cyclone territory on two occasions.

The Tigers should be able to pick up many lessons from Baylor and move the ball easily all night against Iowa State.  The Cyclones are a scrappy team, but that do not have the ability to trade points with a Tiger team that can not only score points, but play much better defense than the ‘Clones saw last week in Waco.

We have recommended going against Iowa State the past two weeks and recommend laying the Clones for the third straight week.

Georgia -11:
After giving up 63 points in their first two games, Georgia has limited its last four opponents to a total of just 35 points including an interception and punt return for touchdowns.

The Bulldogs greatly improved defense now faces a struggling Vandy offense that has only scored a total of three points in its last two games, converting only 2 of 24 third-down conversions

Georgia won last year’s matchup 43-0, but the Vandy defense is playing well despite receiving little help from their offense, so don’t expect the Bulldogs to put up as many points this year.

Georgia may not light up the scoreboard, but they should manage a 2-handle which should be enough to cover against a Vandy offense that will struggle to find double digits on the scoreboard.

Alabama-27.5:
Ole Miss qb Mackey had a winning debut versus Fresno two weeks ago, throwing 8-18-0-214 against a defense that gave up 57 points last week.  This week he is facing a Crimson Tide defense coming off its second shutout of the season while only giving up 7 points per game against a schedule that includes three ranked teams.

The Rebel’s 98^th ranked scoring offense will have a hard time reaching double digits against the Tide’s #1 ranked defense.  In their two SEC games, Mississippi only scored 7 against Vandy, which came with only 2:13 remaining; and, 13 points against Georgia which included a punt return for a touchdown.

Alabama has scored between 34 and 41 points in each of their last four games.  Their strong running game should wear out the Ole Miss defense and put up another 3-handle which should beat the spread for the sixth time in seven games.

Miami Oh -3.5:
Kent State has a good defense but the same cannot be said for their offense which had just 7 rushing yards and 70 total yards last week against Northern Illinois’ 108^th ranked defense. It was not just an off week for them as, against FBS competition, they have only scored 7, 12, 0, 10, and 10 points.  The only time they had more than 200 yards of offense was the 217 they put up against Ohio.

Miami’s defense is not too shabby either holding Missouri to just 17 points on the road and a Cincinnati team that has scored 44 or more points in every other game to just 24 points.

Against such a poor offense, Miami Oh may only need to score 17 points to cover the spread.  The Redhawks scored 21 points in the final 17:30 minutes in their comeback win over Army.  The Redhawks should sail on that momentum and cover on the road.

Georgia Tech -7:
Georgia Tech should have easily covered last week as they took a 21-3 lead over Maryland.  However, they became too conservative with their lead and nearly lost as the Terps took the momentum and outscored the Yellow Jackets 13-0 in the fourth quarter.

That effort not only provides value, you can expect Georgia Tech to keep their foot on the gas as they visit Virginia this week.

Georgia Tech scored nearly 52 points in their first five games and average 46.5 points per game for the season.  The defense has not been stout, yielding 24 points per game, but they are improved from last season.

Virginia’s offense is not in the same league as Georgia Tech’s.  In their last game against a week Idaho defense they needed overtime to manage 21 points at home.

The Cavalier defense is good, though, but North Carolina, Southern Miss and Indiana scored 29, 30 and 31 points against them.

These two teams have only faced one common opponent, as Georgia Tech beat North Carolina by 7 while the Tar Heels defeated Virginia by 11 the previous week.

Virginia does have an extra week to prepare for this game, but they are going to need it as Georgia Tech put up 477 yards rushing last year.  Georgia Tech has also improved its passing game this year, despite numerous dropped passes.  Thus if Virginia overplays the run, Georgia Tech could burn them for long passes as they did against many of their opponents this season.

Georgia Tech has only lost ATS once this season while Virginia has not covered versus an FBS school.  Look for these teams to continue their trends this week as Virginia looks to score 21 to 24 points while Georgia Tech puts up a three-handle.

Temple -21:

Temple is off a 42-0 win playing a Buffalo team they beat last year by a score of  42-0.

Temple is better in every phase of the game, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Owls have held 4 of 6 of their opponents to 7 or fewer points while holding Penn State to just 14 points in a near upset of the Nittany Lions.

Temple has won each of their four games by 31 to 42 points, including road wins against Ball State and Maryland which I have rated as better teams than the Buffalo team that has to travel to Philadelphia.

Ball State is the only common opponent between these two teams.  Temple beat them on the road last week 42-0 while Buffalo lost to them by 3.

Although Buffalo has been competitive in most of their games, including a one-point upset of Ohio last week, look for another Temple to win in another route.

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
Nevada -20.5
Wyoming +12

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Temple -9
Alabama -29
West Virginia -19.5
Northwestern +7.5
Baylor -15
Florida +13.5
Western Michigan -10
Ohio State +10.5

Nevada -20.5:
Nevada’s only win is a 17-14 victory over San Jose State, but their other three games were on the road  against Oregon, Texas Tech and Boise State.  Nevada was able to move the ball well against Oregon and Texas Tech, so their good running game should be able to rack up points against a very weak Rebel  defense.

UNLV is a poor road team coming off a 41-16 loss to Southern Utah and now faces a Nevada team that has good success at home.  Nevada has served as a punching bag three times this year and will likely show little sympathy running up the score on their in-state rivals.

Wyoming +12:
A quick glance at this matchup makes it understandable why Utah State is favored by a dozen points.    Comparing their common opponent, Utah State beat Weber State by 37 points while Wyoming barely beat them, escaping with a 3 point win.

Utah State has excellent run unit while Wyoming has yielded 212 yards rushing per game against FBS schools.  Utah State nearly beat Auburn and BYU while Wyoming only beat Bowling Green by one and lost to their only good competitor, Nebraska, by 24 points.

So why go with Wyoming? The Cowboy’s defensive rushing stats are skewed by the much bigger Husker offensive line putting up 333 yards on the ground and they played Nebraska much tougher than the final score indicates as they went into the half down just 14 to 7.

Wyoming also has a situaitonal edge as they are coming off a bye with only UNLV on deck so the Cowboys should be focused while Utah State is coming off a disappointing loss to a BYU team that they likely wanted to beat more than anyone else on their schedule.  Their conference foe Fresno State is also coming up next.

Wyoming is running the ball well and should keep the Utah State offense off the field with a balanced  attack.  With both teams pounding out the run game, a shorter game should be an advantage for a double digit dog.

With more national exposure the past two seasons, the public is familiar with Utah State’s battle with Oklahoma last season and their tough losses to Auburn and BYU this season, while not noticing their loss to Colorado State. The public is largely unfamiliar with Wyoming and thus have undervalued them, moving the line up to 12, providing value on the Cowboys.

Most importantly, the Cowboys see this game as key to obtaining bowl eligibility. Wyoming is 9-2 as away dogs the past three seasons and should manage to stay within the spread.  They could possibly pull off a much-needed upset as they need this win.

Temple -9:
Temple’s strong running game matches up well with a Ball State defense that is giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground.  While Ball State has an offense that is as capable as Temple’s, the Owls defense is far better than Ball State’s.

Look for Temple to put together many sustained drives as they move the chains with their ground game, wearing down the Ball State defense.  The Owl defense should more closely resemble the team that held Maryland to one score and Penn State to just two touchdowns.

Alabama -29:
Laying 28.5 points against a Vandy team that has not allowed more than 21 all season does not look like a good play at first glance.  Vandy has also had two weeks to prepare for this game while Alabama is coming off two big games against Arkansas and Florida.

Despite the situational edge, Vandy will have a tough time just gaining first downs against Alabama’s dominant defens,e much less finding the end zone. Against South Carolina, Vandy was only able to convert one out of fourteen third down conversions while rushing for only four yards in the game.  Vandy had just one drive of over ten yards in their last game with six of their drives going for zero or negative yards.

Although the Vandy defense is capable of holding the Alabama offense under 28 points if their offense can put some drives together, the Tide will likely string together multiple three-and-outs which will enable their offense to wear out the Vandy defense.

With their defense setting them up for short drives, expect the Tide to find paydirt at least five times which should be enough to cover against Vandy’s anemic offense.  A more interesting prop may be who scores more points, the Vanderbilt team or Alabama’s defense.

West Virginia -19.5:
West Virginia is in a legitimate revenge situation this week as their loss last year to UConn by a field goal in overtime cost them a BCS bowl.

The West Virginia offense, which has over 2,000 yards of offense in their last four games, should have a  field day against a UConn defense which  gave up 38 points to Western Michigan last week.  More  impressive than the 55 points the Mountaineers scored last week against Bolwing Green were the
21 points and 533 yards of offense they put on LSU’s excellent defense 2 weeks ago.

West Virginia could top 50 points in this game if they can finish drives, but even settling for 42 points should be enough to cover against this year’s UConn team.

Northwestern +7.5:
The undefeated Wolverines are facing a Northwestern team that has not won since September 10, having since lost by 7 to Army and by 3 in a near upset of Illinois last week.

Michigan has only surrendered a total of 10 points in their last three games, but those were home games against Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, and Minnesota.

While the team records and season stats would lead one to pick Michigan, don’t forget Notre Dame had over 500 yards of offense against the Wolverines while Western Michigan battled the Wolverines until two defensive touchdowns and a lightning storm did the Broncos in.

Expect Michigan to put up points, but much like last week, Northwestern should be able to trade scores and keep this game within a touchdown at home if Northwestern qb Persa makes it through the game.

Baylor -15.5:
Baylor QB Robert Griffin has been outstanding this season, throwing 18 touchdowns and only interception which came when he was biumped while he was throwing the ball.

Baylor has put up 48 or more points in each of their first 3 games and scored 35 against a good Kansas St defense last week.

ISU lost 37-14 to Texas last week and will likely yield more points this week.  Their offense is not built to get into shootouts and do not have the offense to keep up with Baylor, especially on the road.

Florida +13.5:
Florida is a much better team than Alabama made them look last week, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately for the Gators, LSU will likely provide another nightmare for Florida’s offense.

While the Tigers should limit the Florida offense to two or fewer touchdowns, LSU may not score bunches of points either.  The Tigers only scored 19 points against a Mississippi State defense that is not as good as Florida’s while LSU has had five other wins in the previous two seasons where they scored 24 or fewer points.

Florida has had good success against LSU in recent years and laying nearly two touchdowns will be tough for LSU to cover in a low scoring game.  While Florida’s 28 point loss to Alabama provides value even at +13.5, one may want to monitor this line through the day shopping for +14 points.

Western Michigan -10:
Western Michigan may be as good as any team in the MAC.  The Broncos came within three points of upsetting Illinois and they played Michigan tougher than the score indicated.

Western Michigan has a much better passing attack than Bowling Green’s secondary can handle.  My power ratings have Western Michigan outscoring the Falcons by two touchdowns on a neutral field.  The Broncos should do even better than that at home.

Ohio State +10.5:
Despite all of Ohio State’s problems, they have shown an ability to do one thing well, stop the run.

Meanwhile, the Huskers coaching staff expressed regret for not running the ball more against Wisconsin as NU QB Martinez threw three critical interceptions.

Expect NU to focus their game plan on running the ball early and often, which could be difficult against the Buckeyes.  This could spell trouble for the Huskers if OSU can get them in second- and third-and-long situations as Martinez has not shown an ability to throw well when in obvious passing situations..

Nebraska’s safeties have struggled all year, but Ohio State is not good enough in the passing game to exploit this weakness.  Teams have been able to run fairly well at Nebraska, but with OSU’s weak passing game, Nebraska will likely load up to stop the OSU run game.

This should be a low scoring game.  Giving up more than 10 points is a large handicap in a low scoring game for a Husker team that has only covered the spread once this season.  Nebraska should pull out a win in front of the home crowd, but expect Ohio State defense to keep the game close.

Narrative following selections

Top Positive Value Selections:
Texas -9
So Carolina -10.5
Virginia Tech -7

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Wake Forest +1
Virginia -15.5
Ohio -15.5
Alabama -4
Georgia -6.5
Wisconsin -10
Arkansas State -12

Texas -9:
Iowa State smacked Texas last year, but Texas is a much improved team that has better balance than a year ago and has far superior athletes on the defensive side of the ball.

Iowa State is a scrappy team that has won all three of their games, but has barely slipped by in 3 games where they had to come back from behind in each instance for wins of 1, 3 and 4 points, the first game being against Northern Iowa.

Texas rebounded from a narrow one point win over BYU with a 29 point shellacking of UCLA two weeks ago.

Iowa State’s straight up, undefeated record provides value, as they could easily be 0-3, in which case they would be much bigger dogs.  Memories of a 2010 season Texas would like to forget also provide value. Expect Texas defense to keep the ‘Clones out of the end zone for most of the day while an effective run game should muster four or five touchdowns. Iowa State has been starting slowly, but coming back in the second half.  That  recipe won’t work against this defense.

So Carolina -10.5:
I liked this game a lot more when the line was under 10, but apparently so did a lot of other folks as the line has risen to 10.5.  However, it could rise to 14 and I would still like the value.

Auburn’s defense has been pathetic giving up 34 to 38 points in its first three games.  Holding Florida Atlantic to 14 points looks like somewhat promising until you realize FAU only scored 3 points TOTAL in theire other games.

Lattimore was tagged hard by Auburn last year but will gain his revenge feasting against the weak Tiger run game which should create wide open passing lanes for the Gamecock’s inconsistent quarterbacks.  South Carolina should easily score 38 to 48 points while limiting Auburn to four or fewer touchdowns.

 Virginia Tech -7:
Clemson is sky-high coming off two emotional victories over a vastly over-ranked Auburn team and a wounded Florida State squad that was coming off a brutal game with Oklahoma .

Lost in the media frenzy over Clemson’s two big wins are the fact the Florida St was without its starting qb and they trailed Troy, Wolford, and Auburn. They have also yielded 27 points per game in their last three matchups.

While VT has been feasting oncupcakes, their defense has been dominate as they have not yielded more than 10 points in any game.  While Clemson likely provide a much greater offensive challenge to the Hokie D, this is the young Tiger’s first road trip and they could be in a rude awakening how different it is to play a physical and fast defensive team on the road as opposed to playing in offensive shootouts at home.

Virginia Tech should be able to pound the Tiger’s defense. Look for the inexperienced Tiger’s to have a meltdown at some point as Virginia Tech is a difficult environment for even the most veteran of squads.

Wake forest +1:

BC has been poor on both sides of the ball but gets their rb Harris back.  BC’s poor passing game should allow WF to load up against the run.

BC is averaging well less than 100 rushing against the three FBS schools they played, losing all three.  Even against UMass their stats were not overly impressive.

WF has been more competitive losing at Syracuse in overtime after blowing lead and beating NC State by a touchdown.   This is Wake’s first FBS game in three weeks so they should be well prepared and rested as they go on the road.  QB Price is throwing the ball well this year and the Deacons are a better team than the Duke squad that won in Boston earlier this year.

Virginia -15.5:
Virginia is not anywhere near the top of the list of teams you would want to lay 15.5 points with, but they are playing a Idaho squad making a long trek east that has lost at home to Bowling Green by 17 and 24 points to Fresno.

Virginia has the ability to run or pass against the weak Idaho defense while the Vandals are a one-dimensional passing team.  If Virginia can keep from turning the ball over, they have a good chance of covering as the losses in their last two games provide value against a physically overmatched team. Virginia actually moved the ball well in their losses, so they should be able to muster sufficient offense to cover.

Ohio -15.5 :
Ohio is playing in a legitimate revenge game at home against a poor offensive team in Kent State.  In theirlast home game, Ohio spanked a Marshall team that is much better than Kent by a score of  44-7.  It would not be surprising for Ohio to rack up500 yards offense which should provide more than enough points against a Kent   squad unlikely to score 17 points on a good day.

Alabama -4:
Alabama is coming off a 24 point victory over a good Arkansas squad.  Alabama has a great defense that likely willnot allow more than two touchdowns in any game if the offense can simply take care of the ball.

Florida has not won as a home dog in over a decade, of course they have not been in that situation since 2003when they lost as a 1 point dog to Florida State.  Alabama should continue Florida’s home-dog losing ‘streak’ as the Tide defense is likely to force some timely turnovers.  Any time this defense only has to cover 4 or less points, you just take them.

Georgia -6.5:
Georgia is showing good balance on offense and is better than Miss State on both sides of the ball.  Georgia is still provided value from the hangover of starting 0-2, but both those losses were against very good teams.  Mississippi State’s close game against Auburn does not look as impressive as Auburn’s defense has been exposed and they barely escaped at home against Louisiana Tech last week.

Both teams will probably have some success running the ball, but Georgia has a big edge in the passing game.  The Georgia defense will dare Mississippi State into throwing the ball which should lead to some turnovers while Miss State cannot afford to load up against the run.  If Georgia gets ahead, Miss State will struggle to catch up.

Wisconsin -10:
If Nebraska was receiving this many points before the season started, I would have jumped all over Nebraska, but with four games under each team’s belt, it is looking like Wisconsin is the value here as they may provide a rude welcome to the Huskers in their inaugural Big ten game.

Nebraska qb Martinez is an excellent runner, but his throwing has not improved and may have even regressed.  If Nebraska falls behind and has to throw, the Huskers are in trouble.  Unfortunately for Husker nation, that will likely happen as Nebraska’s defense has not been playing as well as advertised.  Fresno was able to run right at Nebraska and was threatening to upset them in Lincoln late in the game.   Washington also scored 38 points on the Huskers as the defensive backfield was out of position on several plays.

The Badgers offense has been  rolling all year as they are winning by an average of 40 ppg against weakcompetition.  Although it is hard to
judge Wisconsin against their opponents, you can judge them against last year’s squad which was playing as well as anyone in the country at the end of the season.  With QB Wilson providing a new dimension to complement their strong running game, this year’s team may be even more potent.

The Badgers should be able to pound the Huskers with their running game as NU star D-lineman Crick is not at full strength.  The Badger’s qb should hit some play-action passes down the field against the Husker safeties who have been over-playing the run all year.  If Wisconsin takes the lead, I do not see Martinez bringing them back with his arm.  This could play out like the Huskers ugly loss to Washington last season where they fell behind a fell apart when they had to turn to the passing game.

Arkansas State -12:
 Arkansas State should be able to put up plenty of points against a Western Kentucky squad that has yield over 40 in each of their last two games. Western Kentucky has had some key injuries to their passing game while Arkansas State’s defense had respectable showings against Illinois and Virginia Tech.

In Arkansas State’s two games against lower caliber opponents, they walloped Memphis47-3 and blew by Central Arkansas 53-24.  WKU was respectable in their opening 14-3 loss to Kentucky, but they were also beaten by Indiana State 44-16. A blowout would not be a huge surprise.

After yielding an early field goal drive, Alabama’s defense dominated Penn State for the remainder of the game.

Despite Alabama having complete control of the game, it was worth taking a small stake in a long odds trade on Penn State each time they took control of the ball from late in the third quarter through Penn State’s onside kick attempt (with the exception of when they trailed 27-3).

Even though Alabama only led by 7.5 points to the spread from late in the 3rd quarter through well into the fourth quarter, a small stake in the 95 to 98 range (1.02 to 1.05) was worthwhile even though they did not work out.  If Penn State failed to move into scoring range, you could sell out for next to nothing.  However, if they had any big play for a score, Alabama’s value would have fallen to at least the low 80′s (1.20s).  The risk-reward certainly makes this a good trade as Alabama was priced in for a sure ATS win too soon and Alabama could have let up with a big “straight up” lead. (Penn State drove the ball into Penn State territory 3 times after Alabama took a 20-3 lead.  One drive was stopped by a turnover.)

The most profitable entries were early in the game on Alabama, though.  Their first two possessions could be purchased fairly cheap.  Alabama took control of the game’s  momentum on a fake punt, at which time Alabama could be backed with good value.  With Alabama set to receive the second half kickoff and their defense controlling the game, it was worthwhile taking Alabama before the half as long as you held a stop-loss in case things did not work out.)