A Bettor World

Normally when a 13.5 point underdog moves into field goal range in a game that is expected to be low scoring due to weather, it would be worth backing them on the short side of the odds.

However, when that team is the Kansas City Chiefs, a turnover-prone team with a poor passing game and trend of being blown out, it is difficult to pull the trigger.  They simply are not a team you want to trust with your hard-earned dollars, no matter how good the situation.

Conversely, no matter how good a team, overcoming a 20.5 point deficit ats is quite difficult to overcome.  Thus if one was looking to back the Steelers after they fell behind, backing them on the moneyline would be a much better position.

One must also look at the form of each team for a given night.  The Chiefs clearly had a high energy level early while the Steelers looked a bit lethargic.

Thus it was one of those nights to just sit back and watch the game.

New York Jets-Baltimore

Under 43

The last time Toledo hosted a ranked team, they took Fresno State to overtime, beating the spread.

Last week, Toledo nearly pulled off an upset of Ohio State, easily covering the spread.

Tonight, the Rockets take on a highly ranked Boise State squad who thumped them last year on the blue turf 57-14.  In that game, Boise St racked up 500 yards and held a 5-0 turnover edge.  Boise State is a bit less intimidating on the road as all five of their losses in the past five years have come away from home while Toledo is 10-4 as a home dog in the past decade.

Toledo is a more composed team this year who will take better care of the ball and should be able to maintain a few scoring drives while not having to worry about Boise graduates Young and Pettis when they are on defense.  Last week’s success against Ohio State also makes it tempting to side with Toledo’s ability to stay within the spread.

However, Boise State is 13-4 ATS on the road over the past three years.  More troubling when considering Toledo tonight is that they looked very susceptible to long passes last week.  Ohio State did not attempt many long passes yet completed passes for 26, 31, and 36 yards while missing a few wide open receivers down the field..  Kellen Moore loves to go deep and has several receivers who can exploit Toledo’s pass defense.

I advise passing on pre-game bets and trade with a neutral bias.

In the other game tonight, Iowa State is coming off an upset of their in-state rival and will be getting 4 points in their visit to a UConn team that is less talented than the Hawkeyes.  While I like the Cyclones chances of upsetting the Huskies, I do not like the fact they are going on the road on a short week when they are coming off consecutive weeks of hard-fought battles with in-state rivals.  UConn was 4-0 as home favorites last year while Iowa State has not been known as road warriors.

I recommend passing on this game and trading the Boise State-Toledo game that should also be more entertaining than this matchup.

College football’s opening weekend typically has many games with points spreads of five scores or greater.   This year is no different as 8 or 9 games will likely kick off with a point spread of 31 or more points.

Most experienced handicappers will advise gamblers to stay clear of these lines.  This is generally good advice.

Last year there were 31 games that had a point spread of 31 points or greater (How is that for symmetry!).  The favorite covered 15 of these games while the dog covered 16.  Betting in the traditional manner at the standard rate of -110 (2.1) on all large lines would have been a losing proposition taking all favorites or all dogs.

The favorites have performed even worse over the past 20 years winning just 246 games, losing 274 and pushing on six occasions.  Five of these games actually ended in an outright upset!

If one would have bet all of these favorites in the traditional manner at $110 to win $100, they would have lost $5,540, or $10.53 per game.

Does that mean the dogs are the way to play these games?  Unfortunately this is not the case either.  As mentioned, last year would have been a losing proposition with such a strategy while betting every large dog at $110 a clip would have reaped a reward of less than a buck a game ($0.65) for a total of $340 over the past 20 seasons. 

A critic might point out, “Yes, if you totaled up every game ever played you would find a similar result.  That is the entire point of handicapping, to analyze teams in order to identify specific games where there are discrepancyies between the bookmakers implied ability of the teams and your own assessment?”

This is certainly true, but handicapping these large lines is somewhat more challenging as it is usually not a question of the favorite team’s ability to cover the spread, it is more a question of their willingness to keep piling on points and to remain focused.

Handicapping large lines can occasionallyidentifywinning plays  if a strong focus is placed on teams that need to exceed expectations for ratings purposes. Boise State and TCU fit these criteria and performed quite well in this roll last year, especially on the road where they went 5-1 ATS.  However, they only managed to go 2-2 at home.

The greatest danger in betting larger favorites is the threat of a backdoor cover late in the game. This is due to the winning side bringing in substitutes to give more players an opportunity to play, coaches calling more basic offensive and defensive plays, and players losing some of their focus.

These are primarily second half issues.  In our next post, we will discuss how large favorites CAN BE TRADED on betting exchanges in these situations.