A Bettor World

Tom Brady led his team on a 28 comeback that would have tied the regular season record, only to have the 49ers retake the lead for good on their next offensive play..

The 49ers started the game red hot, stopping Tom Brady before going on an impressive touchdown drive.

This appeared to be a good opportunity to take the Patriots +150.

After both teams traded punts, the 49ers intercepted a pass and returned it inside the Patriot five yard line.

At this point it looked like it cutting losses was advisable, as the tough 49ers defense could have a 17.5 point lead against the spread.

Then as luck would have it, the 49ers fumbled the ball away.

After forcing a Patriots punt, the 49ers extended a drive with a fake punt which provided them another chance to score, but they missed a field goal.

This created another opportunity to back the Patriots +150.  However, the Patriots fumbled the ball away, once again forcing Patriots backers to cut their losses.

The 49ers once again spoiled a golden opportunity, fumbling a snap on a fourth and short after they passed on a relatively easy field goal

Once again, the Patriots could be backed, this time at +160.  The Patriots went on the drive people were expecting to come much sooner.  However, the drive fizzled out and they had to settle for three points which resulted in their value being lowered.

Sticking with the Patriots was costly as the Niners drove down the field for a touchdown to take a commanding 14.5 point lead ATS.

The 49ers then scored the next 17 points to take a comfortable 31-3 lead which looked to be safe.

Tom Brady is a great competitor, one never a person to give up on, though, as he led his team to 28 straight points to tie the game.

San Fran quickly deflated the Patriot momentum by returning the kickoff to the New England 38 yard line and throwing a touchdown on the next play.

New England then quickly moved past mid-field, but two big sacks stopped their drive.

The 49ers then took a conservative offensive approach which allowed Tom Brady a chance to tie the game with a 96 yard drive.

However, the Patriots could not manage a first down and the 49ers kicked a field goal to seal the game.

While Peyton Manning is receiving extensive MVP talk for beating up on a string of poor teams, Tom Brady led his Patriots to quick 21-0 lead  over the league’s lone remaining one-loss team.

Going into the game, the strategy was to back the Patriots –5.5 on their first possession and take off the risk if they scored a touchdown.

After stopping the Texans on the game’s opening possession, the Patriots clicked on all cylinders as they marched down the field for a touchdown.

As planned, a riskless position was created on the Patriots by utilizing the Texans +194 ods to remove the risk.

The Patriots stopped the Texans on their next two drives and Tom Brady quickly extended the Pats lead to 21-0.

From that point on the only work to be done was to sit back and enjoy the 42-14 victory.

The Detroit Lions (+6.5) jumped out to a 14-0 lead over the Packers in impressive fashion, only to have a wet ball slip out of Mathew Stafford’s hand and be picked up for a Green Bay touchdown.  This allowed Green Bay go on a 24 to 3 run and walk away with a win and a half point cover.

At the start of the game, it looked like backing the Lions was good value getting  6.5 points and the ball against a beat up Packers team.

Detroit opened the game with an impressive drive resulting in seven points.

At this point, it looked like it was best just to take off the risk using Green Bay’s +200 odds.

Green Bay went on a good drive only to fumble the ball away on a sack.

Detroit took advantage of this mistake a turned it into a 14-0 lead.

Although the Packers could have been backed at this point +400, they were down 20.5 points ats, so anything short of a touchdown would not move the odds in their favor.

Green Bay had a good drive stall out resulting in afield goal and keeping Green Bay +400.

Detroit started another good drive that could have put them comfortably ahead if they could have capped it with another touchdown.  Unfortunately for Lions backers, the wet ball slipped out of Stafford’s hand and Green Bay returned it for seven points and suddenly a game dominated by Detroit was a four point game.

Detroit once again moved the ball well only to throw an interception/

At this point Green Bay was +200 with a chance to bookend the half.

Green Bay failed on the front half, but a Detroit penalty on the punt return compelled them to run out the half, enabling one t stay with the Packers.

Green bay started out the second half with a nice touchdown drive giving them a 17-14 lead.

At this point, it was best to green up even with the Lions at –130.

Green Bay’s defense played much better in the second half, allowing the Packers to cover with a 27-20 win.

This game was certainly an example why trading is better than straight betting.  Before the game started, it looked like the Lions +6.5 was good value and was worthwhile of a traditional bet from the start.  The Lions early effort justified such a position.

However, once the Packers took the momentum, trading allowed one not only to remove the risk of loss, but enabled a small win despite ultimately being wrong on the  handicapping.

A traditional Lions backers would be down 1 unit while  a trader would be up a half a unit, which is 1.5 units better than the traditional wager.

The Redskins defense stepped up their game near the end zone and late in the game to enable RG III to pull out a 17-16 upset of the Giants in a very good game for traders.

Although the Redskins defense yielded 390 yards, they forced the Giants to settle for four field goal attempts (one that was missed) and stopped the Giants offense  on three of their last four possessions.

The Giants got on the board first with a field goal  This provided a good opportunity to back the Redskins +186.before (or after) the field goal attempt.

The Redskins rewarded their backers with a nice touchdown drive.  This enabled an opportunity to use all the green Redskins numbers to back the Giants +138.

New York then drove the ball between the 20’s well, but stalled out and lined up for a field goal

Whenever a good NFL field goal kicker lines up for a field goal inside the 45 yards in good weather, the odds are often pricing in a  made field goal.  Thus, if one isgoing to back the Redskins, it is best to do so before the attempt.

Using this strategy enabled one to put all their green Giants numbers to back the Redskins +118.   This worked well as Tynes missed his attempt.

The Giants were then able to stop the Redskins.  With the Giants moving the ball well, it was best to switch all those green numbers back on the Giants –110.

The Giants rewarded the trading in the green strategy with what would surprisingly be their only touchdown in the game.

This also provided another opportunity to put all those green numbers on the Redskins +186

In what was becoming nicely repetitive, the Redskins made this trading in the green strategy work again with a field goal.

This enabled one to move all the green numbers back to the Giants –120.

The strategy continued to roll with the Giants adding a field goal as the first half expired. .

After this score, one should stay with the Giants as they were set to receive the second half kickoff.

Although the Giants could not keep the momentum rolling, it enabled one to once again move all the green numbers on the Redskins +186.

Washington went on a nice drive that looked to be heading for seven points and one more opportunity to keep building up the green numbers with no risk.

Unfortunately, Washington fumbled the ball away inside the 10 yard line.

While the trading in the green strategy can help build up a very nice green number without any red numbers, at some point one must decide a team to ride to the finish or green up.  With the game well into the third period, it was getting to the point to make such a decision.

With the Giants –185 inside their own 10 yard line, you normally could stay with Washington.  However, they were not forcing three and outs to this point, so it was best to green up, even though this reduced the total level of green numbers.

While it was disappointing to reduce the potential winnings for the game, this action came with relief a couple plays later when Eli Manning hit a long pass that set up a field goal providing the Giants with a six point lead.

RG III then led the Redskins on an impressive TD drive giving them a 17 to 16 point lead.

At his point it was anyone’s game so it was advisable to stand pat in a nice green position where one would win regardless of the outcome.

After both teams traded punts, the Redskins defense stopped Eli Manning for the second straight possession giving the Redskins the ball with 3:51 remaining.

Once again, Washington put together an impressive drive to run out the clock to win and stay in playoff contention.

Damarius Johnson returned a punt 98 yards for a touchdown with 31 seconds remaining to give the Eagles an incredible back door cover over the Cowboys.

The Eagles (+10.5) controlled most of the game against the spread as they lead the game straight up until late in the 4th quarter when Dallas took a four point lead with  just over four minutes remaining in the game.

Despite falling behind, the Eagles looked solid in their ability to cover the spread.  Then reminiscent of last Monday,  the Cowboys Morris Claiborne returned an Eagle fumble 50 yards for a possible front door cover with 3:50 to play.

After stopping the Eagles on downs with less than 2 minutes to play, it looked like the Cowboys were certain to cover.  However, the Eagles continue to play to win, using all three of their timeouts to force the Cowboys to punt and provide them with a longshot opportunity to win the game.

That is when Johnson punished anyone that backed the Cowboys with short odds thinking they were a dead cert to cover by taking a punt return to the house.

Trading-wise, it was difficult to take a position for most of the first half.  Backing the injury-plagued Eagles at short odds, even with 17.5 and 21.5 point leads was not
advisable.  Backing the inconsistent Cowboys offense to cut into a large deficit did not look too promising either.

When the Cowboys had an opportunity to bookend the half at +550 with a theoretic opportunity to take the lead, it looked worthwhile to back Dallas.  However, this position was not to back the Cowboys to come back and win the game, rather, it was to use the long odds to print money in order to back the Eagles to cover with shorter odds.

This strategy is less risky than risking large figures to win a muchsmaller reward as the position can be exited with a small loss if it fails.  It is less risky to use the long odds to  leverage a small wager into larger numbers in order to later back the leading team when the odds are shortened.

This position worked out very well as the Cowboys scored touchdowns on both sides of the half.  This position was crimpt a bit by an Eagles field goal drive in the last 41 seconds of the 1st half.  However, the Cowboys success enabled one to back the Eagles with shortened odds without any risk.

After Philadelphia matched the Cowboys touchdown to take a 24-17 lead, it was worth backing the surging Cowboys offense again with the Eagles green numbers at 9 to 1 odds.  This worked out as Dallas went on a long drive to tie the game at 24.

Once again it was advisable to utilize the shortened odds on a riskless Eagles position.

After the Eagles scored to take a 27 to 24 lead with under 10 minutes remaining, it was too late in the game to be cute with another Cowboys position even though that would have worked out very well in hindsight.

However, if the Cowboys had failed to score a touchdown the odds would have lengthened substantially.  Even if the Cowboys had scored a field goal to tie the game, a trade would have lost money.

After Dallas scored offensive and defensive touchdowns to take a 38 to 27 lead, there was no risk in losing anything if the Eagles failed to cover, just an opportunity cost in not winning the green numbers beside the Philadelphia Eagles name that looked like a high probable win before fumbling away the ball.

Fortunately, Johnson’s miraculous punt return in the final minute provided an Eagles back door cover that was paid for with Cowboys touchdowns.

What looked to be an early blowout after Carolina staked a 14-3 lead turned into an exciting game as a spirited Eagles fought back with a solid running game.  However, untimely penalties and turnovers done in the Eagles once again.

In typical Philadelphia fashion, the Eagles started the game with an impressive drive only to have it fizzle out in the red zone.

As a result, the Eagles kicked a field goal which provided an excellent opportunity to back Carolina –3.5 at +156.

Carolina struck back with a touchdown drive.  With the Eagles banged up, it was advisable to have a bias with the Panthers but to use the Eagles long odds to take off the risk.

After the Panthers took a 14 to 3 lead it looked like the game could get out of hand quickly as the crowd started raining down boos of frustration.

However, in typical Panther fashion, Carolina let a lead slip away as the Eagles cranked up their ground game and scored the next 12 points with two field goals and a touchdown to take a 15-14 lead.

This provided  an excellent opportunity to add to the Carolina position +150 as the Panthers had a chance to bookend the half.

This trade did not start off well as the Panthers came up empty on the front end of the half and then had to start the second half on their own 5 yard line after a poor kickoff return and penalty. Fortunately, Cam Newton stepped up and led his team on an impressive 95-yard touchdown drive to take a 21-15 lead.

With the Eagles playing much better than anticipated, it was once again advisable to keep a bias with the Panthers but use the Eagles long odds to eliminate all risk.

The Eagles once again fought back to take a 22-21 lead with 3:30 left in the third quarter.  Unlike the first two times the Eagles took the lead, it was best to stick with one’s riskless position rather than take on risk to add to a Carolina position as a Panther win started looking quite questionable.  However with the Eagles in a short odds position, it was not a good time to balance out a greened up position.

The Eagles then started playing down to their recent form, fumbling the ball away multiple times and committing several mental penalties.   This allowed the Panthers to score the final nine points a leave town with an ATS win.

The New York Giants bye week worked wonders as they simply dominated a Green Bay Packers team that came into the game on a five game winning streak.

The Giants opened the game by marching down the field for a touchdown.

The provided a good opportunity to back the Packers +185.

This trade worked very well as the Packers hit a big play for a touchdown.  Given the Giants impressive opening drive, it was advisable to green up.

After stopping the Giants on their second possession, th Packers crossed midfield before being stopped at the New York 38 yard line.  This was a good opportunity to back New  York as the Packers kicker, mason Crosby, is in a terrible slump.

Crosby once again missed a field goal setting up the Giants near midfield.  They took advantage of this opportunity moving the ball well again to take another touchdown lead.

It typically would be a good opportunity to green up or slant some green numbers toward the Packers.  However, it was already looking like it would be advisable to keep a position on the Giants with their lead and simply take off the Packers risk

This worked out well as New York intercepted a pass on the first play of Green Bay’s next possession.  The Giants converted that into a field goal and a ten point lead.

It looked best to stand pat rather than place soem of the Giants green number toward some long odds on the Packers.

The early appearance that it was going to be a good night for the Giants played out as it was basically downhill from this point as the Giants rolled to a 38-10 win that was even more impressive than the score indicates.

The San Francisco 49ers made quick work of the Chicago Bears tonight.   The 49ers offense scored on each of their first four possessions to take a 20-0 lead while their defense barely broke a sweat against a Bears offense that was completely inept with Jason Campbell behind center.

The only trading opportunity came after San Francisco took an early 3-0 lead.  At this point it was worthwhile to take a small position on the Bears +150.

If Jay Cutler was playing, one would want to take a normal size position.  However, with a backup quarterback, one should see how the backup plays before committing too much capital.  Such a cautious approach was validated tonight as the Bears were put away quite quickly.

Tonight was probably a frustrating night for anyone making a traditional bet on the Ravens –3.5.  However, traders who backed the Ravens in-play were able to profit from Baltimore’s performance.

Pittsburgh +3.5 jumped out to an early lead on a drive aided by a long pass interference and finished with a flukey quarterback scramble that ended in the endzone.

This provided an excellent opportunity to back the Ravens +194 as Pittsburgh had Leftwich in as their quarterback.

The Ravens offense could not move the ball well all night, but their defense forced a fumble setting up a filed goal and their special teams returned a punt for seven points to take a 107 lead.

Fortunately, Pittsburgh could not move the ball well either, keeping the odds close to even for much of the game.

Late in the third quarter with the Ravens up 13 to 7, Pittsburgh started running the ball well.  They then completed a long pass that moved the ball to the ten  yard line after a penalty was tacked on to the end of the play.

At this point, it was best to green up while the opportunity still presented itself.  It is always best to sell when you can, not when you have to sell.

The Ravens held the Steelers to a field goal.  It was best to stand pat with a small green on both teams.  With the Ravens in the leading the game but trailing by the hook against the spread, a person backing the Ravens could find themselves in a situation where the Ravens would be content to run time and play for filed position rather than taking big risks to score.

The Ravens did just that, holding on to their 13-10 lead, rewarding traders but not coming through for traditional side bettors.

The Houston Texans held on to win a 13-6 game that went from a turnover filled first half to a second half where both teams played it close to the vest.

There were two good entries to trade in this game.  The first came after Houston took a 3-0 lead.  At that point one could back the Bears +150.

The Bears showed a small profit on that trade as they tied the game at 3-3.

Houston took a t 10-3 lead in the second quarter providing an opportunity to back the Bears at +233.

Unfortunately, this position fell apart on one play.  What initially appeared to be a big play for the Bears that would have put them near the goal line was nullified for an illegal forward pass that looked legitimate on replay.  To add insult was an injury to Cutler on a late hit that caused Cutler to miss the second half.

Once it was announced that Cutler was out, it was advisable not to continue the position with a backup quarterback in bad weather.  If one cut their losses immediately, they could have kept the trade to a small loss and possibly ended the game with a small win due to the first Bears trade.