A Bettor World

The New Orleans Saints offense was in high gear tonight as they rolled up 49 points on the New York Giants.

It was obvious from the very start that the Giants would not be able to stop Drew Brees and the Saints offense tonight. After opening the game with an impressive 11-play drive that ended with a failed fake field goal, the Saints easily moved down the field on their next possession for a 10-play touchdown drive.

The Giants tried to make a game of it, reducing the lead to 7-3 on their next possession and then stopping the Saints.

The Saints then put their offense in high gear scoring touchdowns on their next four drives (excluding their possession with with just 35 seconds remaining in the first quarter) to blow the game open.

When a high-octane team like the Saints, Packers or Patriots comes out walking up and down the field, there is only one thing to do.  Back them and stay with them until the other team proves they can stop them.

As Kansas City jumped to an early 3-0 lead tonight, it was highly advisable to back the Steelers with long odds as Kansas City has had trouble finding the end zone for the past month.  The provided a likely scenario, but not a certainty that Pittsburgh would keep the Chiefs out of the end zone and eventually take the lead putting providing a chance to either ride them to the finish or green up.

The Steelers did just that, scoring the next ten points while shutting down the Chiefs offense.

The Steelers spent most of the second and third quarters threatening to take the lead against the spread.  However, while Pittsburgh continued to keep the Chiefs offense in check, they could not finish drives, even after Kansas City turned the bal over three times in threee plays ont their own side of the field.

By the fourth quarter, it was advisable to green up as the Steelrs could not finish the job while the Chiefs started to show a pulse on both sides of the ball.  The Chiefs ended up covering for all 60 minutes despite failing to find the end zone once again.

While it was certainly worthwhile to take a big stake on the Steelers early in the game, when a team fails to cover the points, one should green up and keep your profits moving forward before one fluke play or time decay erodes guaranteed profits.

Top NCAA Selections:
Nevada +1.5
UAB -5
North Carolina State -11.5

Other NCAA Selections:
Western Michigan -27
Houston -3
Arkansas +12
Michigan -7
Tennessee -7
Alabama -21
UL-Lafayette +14

NFL Sides:
Houston -3.5
Chicago +4
New England  -3

NFL Totals:
Cleveland/Cincinnati Under 37.5
Houston/Jacksonville Under 37.5
Washington/Seattle Under 37.5

New England (-17.5) provided a very nice bookend of halftime providing a field goal just before the half and opening the second half with a 9-play 85-yard drive.

After finally taking a 7-3 lead after Kansas City controlled the first 22 minutes of the game, the Patriots intercepted a Kansas City pass and returned it to their own 46 with 2:01 remaining in the first half.  With New England set to receive the second half kickoff and signs of their offense coming to life on the previous drive, the Patriots were set up for an excellent opportunity to take two possessions to none to bookend halftime and blow the game open.

Patriot’s backers could enter at this point with a binary value of 40 (2.50). After bookending halftime with ten points, the Patriots value increased to 64 (1.56).  With Kansas City only returning the kickoff to their own 13 yard line, it was wise to stay with the Patriots.  Doing such paid off as the Patriots returned the punt for a touchdown increasing their binary value to 80 (1.25).

After the Patriots turned another interception into a field goal, they took a commanding lead 27-3, but only left them ahead by 6.5 points to the spread.  This set the Patriots defense up for a letdown which could lead to a potential Chiefs backdoor cover as they began to aggressively pass the ball.  As the Chiefs passed midfield twice in the fourth quarter, it was advisable to “green up” the Patriots position.

Prior to kickoff, it looked like the Patriots were a good bet for a double backing effort to green up on their first score.  With the Patriots high-octane offense and the Chiefs quarterback making his first start, all one needed was for the Patriots to jump out to an early lead to provide a profit.

However, the Chiefs brought a good effort early and stopped the Patriots three-and-out on their first drive.  They then moved the ball down the field.  Anyone making a double backing effort on the Patriots should have started to look to exit their positions as the Chiefs had a second and four at their own 46.  While the Chiefs drive stalled out at the Patriots 36 yard line, when entering a double-staking effort, it is best to keep losses small rather than falling behind while also laying 17.5 points which can quickly lead to very large losses.  One can always get back in later, often at a much better price.  In this game, the Patriots at one point could have been backed at a binary value of 21 (4.76).

When word came that Vince Young would be making a road start in place of Mike Vick, the line starting moving strongly in favor of the Giants.

However, it did not take long to realize the Eagles were not going to lie down, especially on the defensive side of the ball as the Giants either punted or turned the ball over on their first seven drives.

As the Giants offense continued to sputter, it was prudent to start reducing any stakes in them.  While it was certainly a worthwhile move backing the Giants with Young starting for the Eagles, one must realize when a game is not playing out the way one had envisioned in pregame.

Fortunately for Giants backers, the Eagles were not able to score any points until the second quarter when they managed a field goal.  Giants backers should have been able to  recognize the need to shrink their stake by the.  Once the Eagles scored, one could have still switched positions fairly easily.

Anyone backing the Eagles should have been able to ride them for most of the game.  However, once the Giants tied the game early in the fourth quarter, any Eagles backers should have known to ‘green up’ given the Eagles penchant to blow fourth quarter leads.

Sides:
Atlanta -6.5
Oakland +1

Totals:
Cincinnati/Baltimore Under 41
Seattle/St Louis Under 39

Teasers:
None

Narrative for each game follows selection summary.

Top Positive Value Selections:
Vanderbilt -1.5
Houston -20

Other Selections with Positive Value:
Wisconsin -14
Wake Forest -10
Georgia -30.5
Tulsa -13.5
Stanford -17
Kansas State +8
Arkansas -13
Troy -11

Vanderbilt -1.5:

Vanderbilt has covered in five straight games in a stretch that has included Georgia, Arkansas and Florida.  The only two teams Vanderbilt has not covered against this season are Alabama (5 points ats) and South Carolina (2.5 points ats).

Since losing two straight games ATS, Vanderbilt has corrected their offensive problems scoring nearly 32 points a game in their past five games.

Tennessee has lost five of their last six games straight up and against the spread with their only win coming against Middle Tennessee State.  In their last four SEC games they have not scored more than 7 points and in their previous games against Georgia they only managed 12 points.

While Tennessee’s offensive slump has come against some of the best teams in the SEC, and the nation for that matter, Vanderbilt’s defense is not exactly a pushover.

Vanderbilt needs this game to become bowl eligible and would love nothing more than to become eligible for the post-season by defeating their big brother.

Houston -20:

Houston is not only undefeated, they have covered five straight games and five of the last six.

While most of the attention on Houston has justifiably been on their offense which has sandwiched 73 point games with a ‘meager’ 56 point effort, their defense has also played well recently holding their last two opponents to 13 and 17 points.

SMU has been moving in the opposite direction as they have failed to cover their last four games.  Two of those losses were by 24 and 31 points to Southern Miss and Tulsa.

While SMU has played descent defense, their offense has sputtered at times.  Excluding their contest against Tulane, SMU has only scored a combined total of 27 points in their other three games in the past four weeks.

Houston has won by more than 20 points seven times this year, including their past five.  Expect the streak to continue this week.

Wisconsin -14:

Wisconsin has won their last two games by a combined score of 104 to 30 while Illinois coming off of a 17 point loss to a Michigan.

The Badgers have covered in 7 of their last nine games while Illinois has not covered in 3 of their last four games, with their only cover coming against Penn State’s pedestrian offense.

Illinois has only scored 7, 14, 7, and 14 points in their last four games.  They do have a good defense but against good offenses like Northwestern and Michigan they allowed a total of 66 points.

Wisconsin’s worst offensive outputs were 29 and 31 points against good Ohio State and Michigan State defenses.

Wisconsin should manage 31 points while Illinois does not look like they can manage more than 14 points at this point in the season.

A win will keep the Badgers on track for the Rose Bowl, so they should be highly motivated to play well and put this game away.

Wake Forest -10:

Wake Forest has lost three in a row and four out of five games against a difficult schedule, although they have won their last two ATS.  They need a win here to become bowl eligible as they have a difficult matchup against Vanderbilt on deck.

Wake Forest has not defeated an FBS school by double figures but Maryland has lost five straight games by double digits (losing all ATS), including a home loss to Boston College.  Maryland has not defeated an FBS team since their opening win against a shorthanded Miami team.

Maryland’s defense is struggling as even Boston College put up 28 points and Virginia scored 31 against the Terrapins.  Wake Forest should manage as least as many points against Maryland as BC and UV.

Maryland demonstrated they could put up some points against Clemson, but in their last four games they are only averaging 16.5 points.

With Wake Forest needing a win and Maryland in disarray, take the Demon Deacons.

Georgia -30.5:

Georgia is coming off of a 45-7 win over Auburn and has won their last two games 108-23 while Kentucky is coming off of a 38-8 loss to Vanderbilt.

Georgia has won eight in a row and has covered in seven of those.  Their only ATS loss during this stretch was against Vanderbilt and even then they were over the spread twice in the fourth quarter.

Kentucky has lost 6 of their last 7 FBS games with their only win coming against a reeling Mississippi squad.

Covering 30.5 points is usually a dangerous venture, but against top competition Kentucky has lost 48-10 to Florida, 35 to 7 to LSU; and 54-3 to South Carolina. Georgia has won their last two games by 47 and 38 points .

Every week  you will see a big score next to a small score and wish you had pulled the trigger.  Don’t let Georgia’s impending blowout pass you by.

Tulsa -13.5:

Since starting the season 1-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State, Tulsa has won six in a row, covering their last four.

Excluding the three top ten teams they faced, Tulsa has defeated everyone they played by at least 17 points except for UCF, whose tough defense held them to 24 points in a short week.

Tulsa has averaged 39.5 points during their six game win streak while holding their opponents  to 17 points per game, including their 59-17 demolition of Marshall last week.

UTEP has also performed well against the spread, winning six in a row at one point before not covering in two of their last three games.

UTEP has been able to score points, topping 30 points in four of their last six games.  However, their defense has yielded 30+points to the top offenses they have played.

UTEP could manage 24 points against Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricanes could easily put of 38 or more points, providing the cover.

This may be a bad situation for Tulsa as this game has little meaning and UTEP needs one more victory for bowl eligibility and they have a tough match against UCF on deck.  However, with Tulsa’s ability to rack up points on the UTEP defense, they should still cover.

Stanford -19:

Stanford’s long ATS winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Ducks last week, but they now face a Cal Bears team that has struggled to tally large scoring totals against good defenses.

Cal has covered two straight games in which they won by a combined score of 53-13, but those were against Oregon State and Washington State teams Stanford destroyed by a combined 80-27.

Stanford could be ripe for a letdown, but they have covered against every unranked opponent this season, winning each game by more than three touchdowns.

Cal, on the other hand, has played poorly against top competition, losing to Oregon 43-15 and USC 30-9.

Cal needs this game to become bowl eligible, but with Arizona State on deck they may be home for the holidays as Stanford should return to winning game by more than three touchdowns as they attempt to pump life back into Luck’s Heisman campaign.

Kansas State +9.5:

Kansas State has played a brutal schedule, yet is 8-1 ATS, with their only loss coming against Oklahoma where they gave the Sooners everything they had for the first 30 minutes of the game.  They also put a scare into Oklahoma State, losing by just seven points.

During their amazing run, Kansas State has FIVE upset wins, including an amazing four in a row.

Between their tough schedule and playing a four-overtime game last week in their upset win over Texas A&M, the Wildcats could run out of gas as they have to go on the road to Texas.  However, how many times could that have been said about them this season?

Texas is coming off a baffling offensive performance in a 17 to 5 loss to Missouri after scoring 95 points in the previous two weeks against Kansas and Texas Tech.

Kansas State has allowed over 50 points in their last three games, albeit, one was in four overtimes and all three were against powerful offenses.

Texas has a strong defense as they have only allowed a total of 37 points in their last three games.  Excluding their two games against the two top ten teams from the Sooner state, Texas has not allowed more than 20 points in any game.

The Wildcats, though, have managed 41 or more points in four of their last five games and should manage a few touchdowns.

Texas has a big game against their hated Texas AM rivals coming up on a short week.  That game has added meaning with the Aggies skipping the conference after this season.  The potential for the Longhorns to look ahead may open the door for the Wildcats to keep this game close and provide a possible upset.

Arkansas -12.5:

Arkansas is rolling as they have won their last two games by a combined score of 93 to 35.

Mississippi State has covered their last three games, although two of those ATS wins were by one point in straight-up losses.

Arkansas has scored at least 38 points seven times this season, but will struggle to do so this week against a tough Mississippi State defense. Prior to giving up 24 points to Alabama last week, the Bulldogs held their previous four opponents to 12.5 points per game.

Although Arkansas likely won’t approach their season scoring
average this week, they will not need to so to cover.  Against upper-echelon SEC squads, the
Bulldogs have only produced 6, 10, 12, and 7 points.

Even though Arkansas has a big game on deck versus LSU, the Razorbacks know they will not have a chance at sharing the SEC West title if they do not take care of businesses this week.

While Mississippi State needs a win to become bowl eligible, they have their reeling in-state rival on deck which makes them more likely to look ahead than Arkansas as a loss would be more devastating to the Razorbacks.

Troy -10.5:

Troy has only covered twice this season and has lost six of their last seven ATS as their reputation has surpassed their talent.

This is Troy’s last home game, so they should provide a good effort against a Florida Atlantic squad that has not won this season and only covered twice while losing their last five against the spread.

Although Troy has struggled, it has been even worse for FAU as they have lost all but one of their games by at least fourteen points.

Troy’s 33 points last week was the first time they scored over 20 points since October 1. Their defense has performed even worse as they have allowed more than 30 points in all but two games.

FAU does not have the ability to exploit Troy’s poor defense, though, as they have only scored 0, 1,2, and 3 touchdowns in their last four games.  They have only scored more than 20 points twice while scoring 14 or less six times.

FAU looks like they have given up on the season as they are coming off of a 41-7 loss to a Florida International squad that Troy took to overtime three weeks ago.

As poor as Troy has been, FAU has been worse. Playing their last home game provides Troy the only real incentive for either team in this game which should be enough to cover against a team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on this season.

You often hear ”God has more important things to worry about other than football.”

After watching Tim Tebow drive the Broncos 95 yards for the winning touchdown after going three-and-out on seven of their previous eight drives; after having just 54 yards of offense on their previous eight drives and just 82 yards on their previous ten drives; after starting on the Jets side of the field FIVE times and only scoring three points; the only possible answer is that He really does care about football and HE wants Tim Tebow to win.

Of course having the Bronco defense scoring a touchdown and limiting the Jets to 13 points helped their cause somewhat.  It is not often a team receiving 6.5 points does not cover when holding the opposing team to 13 points.

Trading-wise the Jets were on the long-side of the odds most of this low scoring game until they took the opening drive of the second half 80 yards in 8 plays for a touchdown and a seven point lead.  At that point it looked like the Jets would cover by simply not turning the ball over and playing field position.

The Jets then gave the cover away by throwing a “pick 6″ that tied the game late in the third quarter and then fumbling the ensuing kickoff.  Of course, the Broncos went three and out, failing to score for the fourth time when taking over on the Jets side of the ball.

Jets backers who gobbled up the long odds through the first three quarters had an opportunity to “green up’ as they drove down the field to start the fourth.  They certainly should have taken the opportunity as it was evident that if the Jets settled for a field goal, they would like attempt to run clock and play for field position.  That is what the Jets did, actually quite effectively as it certainly did not appear the Broncos had much of a chance to string together a couple first downs, much less drive the length of the field for a touchdown.

Tonight’s game was a good example of why you should make your more aggressive plays early and trade more conservatively later in the game, because you can never be certain how a game will unfold.  If you start believing possible things can’t happen, even if by random luck, low probability events can happen.

Green Bay provided an easy “double backing” winner as they jumped out to an early lead on a punt return for a touchdown after stopping Minnesota three-and-out on their opening possession.

As discussed earlier this season, the “double backing” strategy  works well when you expect a good team with an explosive offense to dominate a poor team.

To enter, you back them with double your typical backing position before the game.    Exit the position if their opponents are moving into scoring position, otherwise stay with your backing position as long as they come out dominating.  If they fail to score early, exit for a small loss.

This strategy worked perfectly tonight as Green Bay (-13.5) jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead.  As Green Bay continued to build their lead, you could assure a win by setting a trailing stop.

A  less aggressive approach would be to have a tighter stop and just green up after the team you are backing scores first.situations.  If the strategy does not work out early, exit.

However, tonight provided an opportunity to set a trailing stop and ride the Packers to a nice profit.  The Packers danced around a few trailing stop tonight, but they all held.  Even if these stop were hit, you would have still had a profit greater than one unit.

Sides:
Houston -3.5
Chicago -2.5
New England +2

Totals
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati Under 41
Washington/Miami Under 38
St Louis/Cleveland Under 37
Baltimore/Seattle Under 41
NY Giants/San Francisco Under 42.5

Teasers:
None