A Bettor World

Eli Manning will likely no longer be refered to as Peyton Manning’s little brother as he led his team on a clutch 88-yard drive to score the winning touchdown and earn his second Super Bowl title.

Although the Giants won the game, the best trade came by backing the Patriots late in the second quarter.

Throughout the season, backing good offenses that have an opportunity to have the last meaningful drive of the first half and the first drive of the second half has been quite successful.

It worked wonders once again as the patriots were able to bookend halftime with 14 unanswered points.  The chance to bookend the half did not look possible as New England has the ball at their own four yard line with 3:40 remaining.  However, after New England made a couple first downs, backing them with long odds and down just six made a high probability proposition that paid off.

After Tom Brady took the Patriots down the field to start the second half with an 8 point lead, it certainly made sense to try to ride the Patriots for a win.  However, the Giants responded with a field goal to cut the lead to five points.  At this point, you knew Brady just led his team on two straight touchdown drives, so you may not want to green up across the board.  A better move was to eliminate your risk by backing the Giants at 3 to one.  Considering you should have been able to back the Patriots at long odds, you could have been sitting with a nice potential win with no risk.

However, after Tom Brady could not move the ball in what now looked like a game that could go down to the wire, it was best to take a third of your potential Patriot winnings and back the Giants at two to one to green up and guarantee yourself winning 2/3 of your potential Patriot winnings regardless of who won the game.

With the Giants coming back to win, it certainly worked out to win a nice profit on the Giants by backing the Patriots.  Only on betting exchanges can you end another exciting season with a loss that provides a nice win to complete another season well into the green.

This will be the last posting for A Bettor World until next season.  However, this marks the beginning of the 2012-13 football season. Doing your homework in the next six months is the key to finding new trading strategies while refining existing ones.

Thus my last bit of advice from the 2011-12 season is to download all the box scores, drive charts and play-by-play charts and do some magic in Excel.

Two turnovers by San Francisco’s punt returner set up the Giants for 10 points, including the game winning field goal to send the New York Giants to the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl should have two interesting story lines.  Most obvious, it provides Tom Brady a Super Bowl revenge rematch against Eli Manning and the Giants who upset the 18-0 Patriots four seasons ago.

The second interesting aspect is Eli Manning has a chance to move out of the shadow of his older brother in Peyton Manning’s home stadium.

Just like last time, the Super Bowl will be a rematch of a regular season game, only this time the Giants won in the regular season.

Hopefully the Super Bowl will be as exciting as the Giants 24-20 win over the Patriots earlier this season.  In that game, the lead changed three times in the last few minutes.  After the Giants took a 17-13 lead with 3:03 remaining, the Patriots answered with a touchdown to take a 20-17 lead with just 1:36 remaining.  Eli manning then took his team 80 yards in 8 plays to score the winning touchdown with just 15 seconds remaining.

In today’s Giants-49ers matchup, there were two very good entry points.

With the game tied and the Giants set to receive the second half kickoff, it was worthwhile backing the Giants with the ball with 1:36 remaining.  The Giants did well on the front end scoring a field goal just before the half, but they came up empty after the half, but managed to increase their value slightly.

The second came in the third quarter with the Giants taking over the ball at their own 7 leading by three points.  This provided a good chance to take the 49ers with long odds.  Anytime a team is taking over inside their own ten, the other team is more likely to score next.  With the 49ers defense playing well, it was a chance worth taking that paid off.  Even though the Giants managed two first downs, the 49ers had a nice punt return that set up a 3-play, 54-yard touchdown drive to give them a lead.

The end of the game provided a volatile environment with wild swings in value.  Such an environment can provide quick profits, or quick losses.  With the defenses playing so well, it would have paid off to back the defenses through the end of regulation.  However, such trades should be small as one play late in the game can bring a sudden los, as evident by the 49ers fumbled punt return in overtime.

In case you are wondering why there have not been any post here for the past two weeks, a long story short, I can not receive CBS on my satellite or over the air, and since the Sunday Ticket does not cary playoff games, I had to watch the CBS games over the internet (which I do all season long so I can watch multiple games at once.)  Somehow I managed to get a virus two Sundays ago at one of the internet tv sites and did not get my main computer back until this past Tuesday.    While I certainly could have posted  on my other two computers, it felt like a nice excuse to take a couple Sundays off.

Both the Houston Texans (-2.5) and the New Orleans Saints (-10.5)both overcame early touchdown deficits to come back and cover, although they do so in very different fashion.

The Texans overcame Bengal leads of 7-0 and 10-7 to tie the game twice in the first half.  These deficits provided either an opportunity for early Bengals backers to take a small profit or enable an entry on the Texans from the long side.

Then with less than a minute to play in the first half, Texan defensive lineman JJ Watt snatched an Andy Dalton pass at the line of scrimmage and returned it for a touchdown that gave them a 17-01 lead.

In the second half, the Texans held the Bengals offense in check while the offense provided two additional touchdowns to put the game away.

In the evening game, the Lions (+10.5) jumped out to a touchdown lead on the game’s first possession.  This provided a great opportunity to enter the Saints with long odds even though they were 17.5 points behind the spread.

This trade started out well as the Saints marched down the field only to fumble the ball away.

Fortunately , the Saints defense stepped up and forced a punt to allow the Saints offense to tie the game.  At this point, one could have put some green on the screen or hope the Saints could go into the half tied and then take the lead in to start the third.

The Lions the took another seven point lead.  The Saints responded with another good drive only to have the Lions force a Dew Brees fumble.

Again the Saints defense steeped up to allow their offense to tie the game before the half.  it looked as if the Saints had tied the game only to the play correctly reversed by replay causing the Saints to settle for three points.

This put Saints backers in a tough spot.  Although they were starting the second half with the ball, they were still 14.5 points behind the spread.

The way the Saints were moving the ball, it would be best to see if hey let could take the lead.  With many teams, one would just want to keep their losses small, but with the Saints and Packers, it is a different story.

The Saint responded by scoring a touchdown on a their first five drives.  Given the Lions ability also move the ball, it was best to green up once the Saints took a ten point lead.

After the Lions cut the lead to three points, it provided an opportunity to take a small stake on the Saints at long odds.  The Saints once again took a ten point lead which again provided another chance to green up.

The Saints then intercepted a pass to allow the offense to finally cross the spread with a 17 point lead.  If one still had not greened up on the Saints, they may have had some worry as the Lions cut the lead again to cut the lead to ten.  At this point, most teams would have tried to just run clock and not cover, but not the Saints.  The Saints surprised the Lions by throwing deep to set up another spread covering touchdown.

The Lions still had plenty of time to cover, so one should at the very least removed their risk if they were still sitting with large red positions if the Lions covered.  Fortunately for those stacking green numbers on the Saints, New Orleans intercepted another pass to provide a chance to run out the clock, which Drew Brees did, kneeling out the clock rather than running up the score.

Fox’s addition of Mike Pereira as a special rules analyst for the past two seasons has been one of the greatest telecast innovations in recent years.

Mr. Pereira is highly knowledgable of both college and pro football rules.  He is also entertaining despite his straight forward analysis and has an ability to educate fans of the rules without being condescending.

I don’t recall him being incorrect three times in the past two seasons, thus it was both surprising and a bit amusing to see Mr. Pereira make three incorrect statements during one analysis!

With 30 seconds remaining in the first half of the Arkansas-Kansas State game, a Wildcat run by Collin Klein that was initially judged a first down went under review as it appeared to be short of the line to gain for a first down.  During the analysis, Mr. Pereira stated the ball should be spotted at the 3.5 yard line (it was spotted at the 3), he said it would be fourth down (it would be third down) and that Kansas State would have to hurry because the clock would start on the ref’s signal (Arkansas had called timeout.)

We should forgive Mr. Pereira because it was an unusual event and he adds color to the broadcasts.

The same can not be said for ESPN’s attempt to imitate Fox’s rules analyst, though.  ESPN’s rules analyst is knowledgeable, but he does not share much of his rules knowledge with viewers, adds very little to the analysis that fans do not already know, is incredibly monotone, and often is unable to beat the field refs in making the call!  ESPN, which usually outdoes everyone else (except for NBC’s Sunday Night Football) has certainly flopped with their rules analyst.  They should continue to do the analysis, but should bring in someone with more charisma, although it will be difficult to top Mike Pereira.

As for the game, it was nice to see two teams make tackles and play pretty solid defense.

Arkansas (-9.5) took a unuasual 10-0 lead in the second quarter without making a single first down as they made a field goal off of a fumble recovery on a sack and took a punt return to the house.

The Razorbacks then extended their lead to 19-0 before Kansas State returned a blocked extra point for two points.

At this point there were undoubtedly persons looking to back Arkansas as a likely cover despite the short odds of nearly 5 to 1. This was ill-advised, not only because Kansas State has shown an ability to fight back all season, but because they had an opportunity to bookend the halves.

Despite struggling to move the ball the entire first half, Kansas State did indeed manage to bookend the half with two touchdowns to cut the lead to 3 points.

After exchanging punts following Arkansas’ change of mind in attempting to convert a fourth down, Arkansas moved back over the spread with a touchdown.

Kansas State then made Arkansas backers who failed to reduce any risk to sweat out the final quarter as they twice entered Arkansas territory with a chance to cover.

Unfortunately for Wildcat backers, the Cats missed a 42 yard field goal attempt which would have put them back within the numbers on their first march.  The Wildcats then made another promising drive, following a Razorback field goal, but Arkansas put the game away with back to back sacks and an interception.

This game was yet another example of the dangers of backing teams at very short odds, especially early in the game.  It also demonstrated the quick profits that can be made by taking the long side of the odds when a single play can put the spread back into contention, especially when there is plenty of time remaining.  Remember, in trading you don’t need to win the final outcome to come out green.

For all of the talk about the Big East not deserving an automatic BCS bid, if Clemson is the best the ACC has to offer, then maybe the ire directed at the Big East should be focused on the ACC.  (The Big East and non-BCS conferences have actually played better in these big games than the ACC.)

For a bowl season that has seen several poor defensive efforts, Clemson topped them all with one of the most pathetic defensive efforts in a bowl game EVER.  (Ever, as in the entire history of college bowl games.)

Clemson’s performance would not be excusable if they were playing on short rest in October, let alone to be playing in a BCS Bowl with A MONTH TO PREPARE.  It is simply an embarrassment to Clemson’s coaching staff to have their team this ill-prepared to play.  It is even more embarrassing to see a conference champion quit in the second quarter of a bowl game.

If anyone questions that Clemson quit, watch the number of defenders running at 3/4 speed when Geno Smith ran the ball in for a touchdown from seven yards out when the score was just 28-20.  That was a clear signal to back West Virginia even if one had to give more than 3 to 1, especially with the Mountaineers set to receive the second half kickoff.

To be fair, maybe the defenders were exhausted, but if that was the case, Clemson would have been better off to have their second string defenders in the game than to have their starters trotting around the field.

While West Virginia deserves credit for coming well prepared and motivated to play, Clemson’s defensive effort certainly aided them.  It appears like the more money some of these college coaches make, the worse the defenses play.

College football is not like the NFL where receivers can run clean after five yards.  Defenses can molest receivers all over the field.  It is simply inexcusable for so many receivers to be running so wide open when defenders can knock them off their routes and destroy their timing.  Heck, even if you get beat in college football you can tackle the receiver 40 yards down field before the ball arrives and only be penalized fifteen yards!

The Clemson coaching staff should donate every penny they made in the past month “preparing” for this game to the World Wildlife Federation’s ‘Adopt a Tiger’ program at: http://www.worldwildlife.org/gift-center/gifts/Species-Adoptions/Tiger.aspx?gid=33   It is the least they can do for insulting the prowess of the last few thousand remaining tigers in the wild.

I hope this game puts to rest why Alabama and LSU are playing a rematch for the national title game, they can play defense.  There are 105 teams that have given up more points per game than LSU and Alabama yield per game, COMBINED!

There are probably over 100 overpaid defensive coordinators that should be skipping their summer vacations and spending time earning their pay by watching film of LSU, Alabama and NFL teams to learn how to play defense.  Alabama and LSU may have slightly faster players on their defenses, but they are not that much faster.  It is just as much defensive coaching, desire and effort (and harassing receivers to not allow them to run clear) as it is athleticism.

Heck, if you can’t stop a team, drop 8 into coverage, beat up the wideouts, and make them work the ball up the field. You may yield yards, but you won’t be giving up 70 points!!!  Watch how the pros play cover 2 on third and long.  With bump and run defense, you should be able to keep everything in front of you and come up and make a tackle.  (It is amazing how many teams have converted on third and long this bowl season!)

While I love college football, I am not the only one concerned about so many of the games turning into arena ball.  While few people enjoy 3-0 games, people love the NFL because not only are points earned, first downs are earned.  It makes the game exciting.  Arena ball becomes monotonous after a while when teams can slip one tackler then run free for touchdown after touchdown.

This is also why Oklahoma State fans need to give it a rest that they should be playing in New Orleans next Monday.  The Cowboys would be lucky to be 17 point dogs.  If Stanford could walk up and down the field and put up 38 points on you, so could Alabama and LSU, only you would not be putting up a 3-handle on offense against those defenses.   Teams that lose to Iowa State don’t deserve to be in the conversation anyhow.

I will say, a bad blowout is still better than no football at all, which is what we unfortunately have tomorrow.  At least the next game between Arkansas and Kansas State will likely be a good, defensive fought, 45 to 35 game. (not exactly the 1966 Michigan State-Notre Dame game, but at least its football.)

Why do kickers eat their breakfast cereal on a plate? Because they tend to choke in bowls.

Virginia Tech followed in Stanford and Georgia’s missteps tonight by missing a very makeable field goal to lose the game.

Michigan followed Stanford’s luck by having instant replay overturn touchdowns which could (and in Stanford’s case, would) have cost them both the game and the spread.

In case you missed last night’s game, Stanford +4 outplayed Oklahoma State on the stat sheet but missed a game winning field goal at the end of regulation and then missed another in the first possession of overtime.  Oklahoma State then threw what looked like the spread covering touchdown win only to have instant replay  show the receiver was stopped inches short of the goal line.  Oklahoma State then made the wise move of setting up an easy game winning field goal, but provided Stanford one of the most fortunate covers of the year.  (Stanford actually had a more incredible cover earlier in the year against USC winning by 8 points as 7.5 point favorites in triple overtime when USC fumbled the ball into the end zone.  USC, by the way, had the point spread play of the year when the PAC 12 awarded the Trojans a touchdown hours after the game that was initially called back due to excessive celebration which caused some Vegas casinos to pay out on both USC and Utah.)

Back to tonight’s game, the Sugar Bowl was a classic example that the team which outplays the other does not always win.

Virginia Tech out-gained Michigan 377-184 and out-first-downed the Wolverines 22 to 12.

However, Virginia Tech gift wrapped the victory to Michigan.  The Hokies missed a golden opportunity for a touchdown early when they had a first and goal at the four yard line.  The Hokies then ran the ball backward 22 yards to make them settle for three points.  The Hokies, later on, roughed the punter which kept Michigan’s first touchdown drive alive, which occurred when the defensive back missed an interception, leaving noone to tackle the receiver.  The Hokies then fumbled the ensuing kickoff to allow Michigan to go into halftime up 10-6 in a game which Virginia Tech greatly outplayed the  Wolverines.

In the second half ,Virginia Tech threw the ball into the hands of a Michigan defensive end who made a great interception to set up another touchdown drive that was helped by a pass interference call which overturned a Hokie interception.

This provided a great entry point on Virginia Tech at better than two to one odds.  Even though the were down eleven points, they were clearly the better team tonight.

The Hokies then stepped it up another notch and clearly outplayed Michigan to score the next 11 points. Then with all the momentum, Virginia Tech failed on a fake punt near midfield to setup a Michigan field goal when the could have pinned Michigan deep inside their own territory.

Virginia Tech then put together a nice drive to send the game to overtime with a field goal.  Given college football’s overtime rules which somewhat diminish the advantage of the dominant team (just ask Oklahoma State), it was best to green up on both Virginia Tech and Michigan trades that were entered with long odds as overtime can be incredibly volatile and unpredictable.  It is just best to take a small profit rather than be beaten by a fumbled snap, tipped pass, holding call, missed field goal, or some other wacky play.  While these things can happen at any time in a game, even a small error in overtime like a false start can cost the team a game, whereas the same error is a small blip at other points in the game.

That does not imply that one should never trade overtime.  For example, taking a good offensive team that falls behind in overtime with long odds can be quite profitable since they are allowed four downs to move the ball to equalize the score and allow traders to green up.

The New York Giants (-3.5) dominated the Dallas Cowboys in what was essentially a playoff game to represent the NFC East in the playoffs against Atlanta next weekend.

The Giants limited the Cowboys to a total of ten yards on their first four drives and forced the Cowboys to punt on all five of the first half possessions.

The Giants offense converted several third down conversions on their way to taking a 21-0 lead.

The Cowboys came out of the halftime locker room with a 94 yard touchdown drive to make a game of it.   They eventually cut the game to seven points early in the fourth quarter, only to have the Giants convert a third down conversion on a desperation heave down the field to break the Cowboys’ momentum.

Trading wise, early Giants backers had an easy ride for most of the game.  However, when the Cowboys cut the Giants lead to seven points, it was advisable to reduce some of their risk while odds remained relatively long.

Backers of the Cowboys were best to cut their losses early when it was evident that their intensity and execution was not on par with the Giants.  It also would not have been a bad idea to back the Cowboys with a small stake at long odds around four to one after they marched down the field to open the second half.  One could have turned a small profit off the trade after they cut it to seven points in the fourth.

Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s single season passing record tonight as he let the Saints (-7.5) to a spread covering win over the Falcons to keep them in contention for a first round bye.

People can say the rules have made it easier to pass, and they certainly have, but Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rogers are playing under the same rules and they have not broken the record.  One could also argue that the players are faster, pass rushing is more specialized, and defensive coordinators are throwing out more sophisticated defensive schemes as the game continues to evolve.

Trading wise, taking the saints just before taking the ball for the first time paid off again.  As mentioned many times this season, when high powered offenses such as the Packers, Saints, and Patriots are large favorites, there is a high probability of them taking the lead.  One can then either trade out for a quick profit are put in a trailing stop and try to ride them to the finish.  If they fail to take a first half lead, one can usually sell out for a small loss.

Last weeks picks on sides and totals went 6-0

Sides:
San Diego +1
Arizona +4.5
Buffalo +3

Totals:
Oakland/ Kansas City Under 42
San Francisco/Seattle Under 37.5

Teasers:
None

Every year at this time, several pompous sports reporters will spout about there being too many bowl games.

If there are too many  bowl games, then why weren’t there any football games to watch tonight?  A rematch of Eastern Michigan and Ball State, who played an exciting 33 to 31 game that ended on a 44-yard field goal with 9 seconds remaining, would likely have drawn better ratings than many of the shows on tonight’s television lineup.

A real fan of the sport would never complain about having an opportunity to watch an additional game.  If you don’t want to watch the game, then don’t watch.  Go have an exciting night out at Applebee’s, watching a two-star movie at the local cineplex, or sipping hot cocoa while reminiscing about your favorite Christmas moment being the time you went caroling at the old-folks home, or whatever it is you choose to do with your time.  Just please don’t be so arrogant as to campaign for fewer bowl games just because you wish to rain down on someone else’s parade.

I rather enjoyed watching UL-Lafayette play San Diego State.  It likely will end up being one of the most exciting bowl finishes this season.  The Ohio- Utah State game will also likely go down as one of the most exciting finishes in the post-season.

Fortunately, I don’t believe true football fans have much to worry about. The tv executives understand people want more football, not less.